Washington, D.C. (October 22, 2020) – Two new analyses of recently released Census Bureau data show that the total number of immigrants in the United States grew much more slowly 2017-2019 than in prior years, despite economic growth and low unemployment. This shows that the level of immigration is not a force of nature beyond our control, as many have suggested, but rather responds to policy changes.
The two analyses are based on the 2019 American Community Survey (ACS). The first, using information from the Bureau's data website, shows that the total number of foreign-born people in the U.S. grew more slowly from 2017 to 2019 than during 2010-2017. Growth reflects new arrivals, out-migration, and natural mortality. We estimate net migration — the number coming vs. those leaving — fell considerably between 2017 and 2019. The second report based on the just-released public-use ACS data (which is more detailed), indicates that the falloff in net migration was mostly caused by a substantial increase in out-migration, though new arrivals declined as well. The numbers from the ACS are through mid-2019, and do not reflect the impact of Covid-19.
"Many commentators argue that immigration raises and falls with the economy largely outside the control of governmental policy," said the Center’s Director of Research Steven Camarota. “The new numbers demonstrate otherwise. The economy was strong 2017 to 2019, yet policy changes seem to have significantly slowed the pace of immigration."
Links:
Immigrant Population Growth Slows: 'Trump Effect' likely explains slowdown
New Census Bureau Data Indicates There Was a Large Increase in Out-Migration in the First Part of the Trump Administration
Among the key findings:
- In the first two years of the Trump administration (2017 to 2019), growth in the immigrant population (legal and illegal) averaged only about 200,000 a year, in contrast to 650,000 a year from 2010 to 2017.
- The level of net migration among immigrants — the difference between the number of immigrants coming vs. those leaving — averaged 525,000 a year between 2017 and 2019, compared to about 950,000 a year between 2010 and 2017.
- The change in net migration was caused mostly by a large increase in out-migration. Our analysis indicates that out-migration averaged 975,000 a year 2017 to 2019 compared to about 470,000 in prior years.
- New arrivals also fell from a peak of 1.7 million in 2016, to 1.4 million in 2017 and 1.3 million in 2018. Data for the first part of 2019 indicate the number for 2019 is likely to be similar to 2017 and 2018.
- The slowdown in growth is entirely due to a decline in non-citizens in the country; the number of naturalized citizens continues to grow. This is an indication that illegal immigrants left or fewer arrived, primarily from Mexico.
- While the ACS data only shows population trends through July 2019, the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey, a much smaller survey, does show the immigrant population continued to decline through August 2020.
- Trump administration policies that may have caused the slowdown include:
—A significant reduction in refugees allowed into the country;
—Requiring immigrant self-sufficiency through reform of the public charge rules;
—Mexico & Central American countries agreeing to offer safe haven to asylum seekers;
—Increased barriers and fencing at the border;
—More worksite enforcement against illegal workers and some employers;
—Efforts to end TPS and DACA, may have discouraged illegal immigration;
—Other modest administrative changes that may have had a cumulative effect.
- Although the pace of increase has slowed down, the nation’s immigrant population still hit a new record of 44.9 million in July 2019, an increase of 204,000 over 2018. The immigrant share of the population (13.7 percent) is the highest percentage in 109 years.
Sending regions and U.S. states:
- The slowdown in growth and new arrivals effect almost every country and region with the exception of immigrants from Central America and to some extent South America.
- Just between 2018 and 2019, the number of immigrants from Latin America (excluding Mexico), grew 310,000, with Central Americans accounting for about 200,000 of this increase and Venezuela roughly 70,000 of the increase.
- The states with the largest numerical increase in the number of immigrants 2010 to 2019 were Florida (up 868,000); Texas (up 809,000); California (up 414,000); Washington (up 247,000); New Jersey (up 230,000); Massachusetts (up 207,000); Virginia (up 173,000); North Carolina (up 165,000); Pennsylvania (up 154,000); Georgia (up 149,000).
- The states with the largest percentage increase 2010 to 2019 were North Dakota (up 87 percent); South Dakota (up 63 percent); Kentucky (up 40 percent); Delaware (up 35 percent); South Carolina (up 32 percent); Tennessee (up 29 percent).
