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Dear John,

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www.ircgop.com

2020 Florida County Republican Registrations Bookclosing Report and Elections Analysis

©Stephen R. Meyer, Vero Beach, Florida, October, 2020

Issued 10/18/20

Bookclosing is the fixing of the registrations for the general election. October 5 was to be the date of the bookclosing, but owing to computer issues the date was extended by a day.
Republican registrations in Florida, relative to Democrat registrations, improved by 21,290 registrations from the end of September up to the bookclosing. This leaves the Democrats with a 134,242 relative registration advantage heading into the 2020 general election (See attached chart and tables).
In 2016 the Democrats held a 327,438 voter registration advantage relative to Republican registrations and President Trump carried Florida by 112,911 votes.

Click Here To View Document

One of the more interesting finding in the registration information was the positive Republican shift taking place in Miami-Dade County. With over 4,000 relative Republican registrations gains in early October, and over 8,000 in September, Miami-Dade County (17,745 registration gains since the 2018 election) edged out Pasco (13,554 relative registrations gains) and Volusia (13,258 relative registrations gains) Counties as the top performing county in Florida measured by gains in Republican relative registrations between the 2018 and 2020 elections!

A lessening of Democrat support in Miami-Dade County may not be new. In 2018 Governor DeSantis won the gubernatorial election by 32,461 votes statewide. Although losing Miami-Dade County by 167,377 votes in 2018, Governor DeSantis could have easily lost his 2018 gubernatorial election had Miami-Dade County voters come close to matching Hilary Clinton’s 2016 margin of 290,147 votes in Miami-Dade County.

Other counties of note concerning Republican relative registrations (those with over 3000 relative registration gains) were; Bay (4,863), Brevard (7,189), Charlotte (6,023), Citrus (8,647), Clay (4,443), Collier (3,552), Columbia (3,994), Flagler (3,482), Hernando (6,843), Highlands (3,249), Jackson (5,281), Lake (5,891), Lee (7,401), Manatee (3,705), Marion (8,833), Nassau (3,067), Okaloosa (3,285), Polk (9,344), Putnam (5,214), Santa Rosa (6,220), St. Johns (5,584), Sumter (6,594), Suwannee (3,735), Taylor (3,178), and Walton (4,101).

Both registrations and the actual vote are trailing indicators of political persuasions. Going forward, it would be in Republicans’ best interest to adopt the use of leading indicators, such as the building permit mix between ownership and rentals, the number of building permits issued, and the number of marriage licenses issued.

Best,

Steve Meyer, Indian River County REC Member

Contact Information:

Phone or text; 772-713-8265

Email; [email protected].

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Click on this link to e-mail me:

Joe Saul

Secretary, Indian River County REC

www.ircgop.com

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