Daily News Brief
October 21, 2020
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Top of the Agenda
U.S., Russia Nearing Nuclear Deal
The United States and Russia appear close to a nuclear arms control agreement (WSJ) that would freeze the number of nuclear warheads in both countries for one year while extending the New START treaty, their last remaining nuclear arms pact, for the same period.

​Both sides accepted compromises (AP). Russia had previously objected to the cap on warheads not covered by New START, while the United States initially wanted to include China and opposed an unconditional extension of the treaty. Russia’s Foreign Ministry said it will not accept additional U.S. demands. The Donald J. Trump administration has been pushing for a deal with Moscow as it seeks diplomatic victories ahead of the U.S. presidential election in November. A State Department spokesperson said U.S. negotiators are willing to meet “immediately” (RFE/RL) with Russia to finalize an agreement.
Analysis
“A freeze on all warheads has never been done before,” the Arms Control Association’s  Kingston Reif tells the Wall Street Journal. “Defining and verifying such a freeze is far from a simple matter.”

“For Trump, accepting [the] Russian position would constitute [an] astounding walk-back: No ‘fix’ of New START, no improved verification, no inclusion of ‘outside’ weapons, no China. And all for 1 year that can be extended, and a non-verifiable ‘freeze.’ Better than collapse, but still,” tweets Hans Kristensen, a nuclear weapons expert at the Federation of American Scientists.

​This CFR In Brief explains New START.
What Are the Global Threats to Watch?
CFR’s Center for Preventive Action is compiling its thirteenth annual Preventive Priorities Survey to help policymakers plan for conflicts that could erupt or escalate in the coming year.

Pacific Rim
Thailand Cracks Down on Media Amid Protests
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha told authorities to take no chances in censoring media (Bangkok Post) that could violate the state of emergency imposed amid widespread protests against him and the monarchy. A court ordered online content from Voice TV, a news network owned by the family of two former prime ministers, to be blocked, and several other news outlets could reportedly face legal action.

CFR’s Joshua Kurlantzick explains the crackdown in Thailand.

China/India: India released a Chinese soldier (NYT) who had been captured at the disputed China-India border, the Chinese military’s news agency reported. The move could signal an easing of tensions between the countries following a deadly clash earlier this year.

South and Central Asia
Kyrgyzstan to Hold New Parliamentary Elections
Kyrgyzstan’s election authority announced that new parliamentary elections (RFE/RL) will be held on December 20. Elections held earlier this month were annulled after mass protests that led to the ouster of President Sooronbay Jeenbekov.

​Afghanistan: At least a dozen women were trampled to death (TOLO) by a stampeding crowd seeking Pakistani visas in the city of Jalalabad.

Middle East and North Africa
Saudi Crown Prince Sued in U.S. Court Over Khashoggi’s Killing
Hatice Cengiz, the fiancée of slain Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, and the human rights organization Khashoggi founded have filed a U.S. federal lawsuit (WaPo) against Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for allegedly ordering Khashoggi’s killing. The prince has denied involvement in Khashoggi’s death, but the CIA concluded in 2018 that he ordered it.

​Israel/UAE: An Emirati delegation flew to Israel to sign a series of agreements (Times of Israel), including a visa waiver pact that will allow citizens to travel freely between the countries. Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States also announced the creation of a $3 billion fund to boost regional investment.

Sub-Saharan Africa
Nigerian Security Forces Fire on Protesters
Nigerian security forces shot at protesters (Guardian) in Lagos, drawing international condemnation (AP). The extent of the casualties remains unclear. Protests against police brutality continue despite a twenty-four-hour curfew imposed by the government.

​DRC: More than 1,300 prisoners escaped from a jail (BBC) in the city of Beni following an attack by suspected Islamist rebels, officials said. The self-proclaimed Islamic State claimed responsibility (NYT) for the attack.

Europe
NATO Plans Space Center to Counter China, Russia
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) plans to establish a new space center (Politico) in Germany to counter Chinese and Russian anti-satellite technology, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said. He expects NATO defense ministers to approve the proposed center by tomorrow.

Americas
U.S. Offers to Finance Non-Huawei 5G in Brazil
The Trump administration offered to finance Brazil’s purchases of 5G equipment (Reuters) from companies other than China’s Huawei. The United States and Brazil also signed a limited trade agreement this week that U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said would promote U.S. investment as an alternative to China.

​This CFR Backgrounder looks at Huawei, China’s controversial tech giant.

Bolivia: President-Elect Luis Arce told Reuters there would be “no role” for former President Evo Morales in his government. Morales, though in exile in Argentina, is still the head of Arce’s Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party. 

CFR’s Paul J. Angelo explains Bolivia’s latest election.

United States
Justice Department Brings Antitrust Lawsuit Against Google
The U.S. Justice Department unveiled an antitrust lawsuit against Google, accusing the internet giant of illegally protecting its monopoly (NYT) over search and search advertising. It is the most significant action against a tech company since the government took on Microsoft in the 1990s and reflects Washington’s growing scrutiny of big tech.
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