Dear John,
With the third Democratic debate providing a make-or-break moment for many candidates, tonight will be critical to the 2020 primaries. Election analysis has been one of NDN's most influential areas of work over the past 14 years, and we send along some of our most recent releases below, hoping they will inform your own work and thinking in the days ahead. You can also find our backgrounder on 2020 here.
Best, Chris
Notes On 2020 - This page has a series of short takes from the NDN team on the 2020 election.
Analysis: Trump Is The Least Popular First-Term President Since WW2 - Trump is the most unpopular first-term president in over six decades and is leading Republicans down the path of the California GOP by ignoring those demographic groups that will over the next decade become more and more critical to winning elections.
Americans Under 45 Are Breaking Hard Toward The Democrats - And For Good Reason - Among the most significant political developments of the Trump era is the dramatic shift of under 45 year old voters towards the Democrats. From 2000 to 2016 D margin w/under 45s was 6 points. In 2018 it was 25.
Trump 1.0 Has Failed. What Comes Next? - Evidence of the failure of Trumpism is all around us. His poll numbers are the worst of any 1st term President, his policies have left the nation weaker, more isolated. As he begins his re-election campaign, Trump is looking increasingly desperate, and we fear, dangerous.
Re-Imagining the Parties In An Age of Hacking, Disinformation - New digital threats will require US political parties to start seeing themselves as front line actors in our national effort to protect our elections and discourse. Some thoughts on how the parties can re-imagine themselves to meet these challenges head on.
GOP Bringing “Moscow Rules” On Disinformation To American Politics - A series of events over the past several months raises questions about whether using Russian style disinformation tactics has become a core part of the GOP’s electoral strategy in 2020.
Dems Have Already Won Back Voters In The Rust Belt. It's Trump Who Needs To Win Them Back Now - It is a myth that Trump's anti-immigrant and protectionist policies have made it difficult for Democrats to win in the Rust Belt in 2020. Trump is trailing badly there now raising questions about Trumpism itself has become a grand failure.
Notes On The GOP's Erosion In The Southwest - The dramatic erosion of the GOP brand in the heavily Mexican-American parts of the country over the past two elections is one of the biggest stories in American politics. Trump's border extremism has cost the GOP dearly, and it hasn't kept the industrial north from slipping away.
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