Welcome to the Tuesday, Oct. 20, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

1. 35.6% of state executives did not seek re-election in 2020
2. Help Desk preview: The life cycle of a mail-in ballot
3. Explore Arizona elections
4. Explore Michigan elections

35.6% of state executives did not seek re-election in 2020

A state executive official is an elected or appointed member of a state’s executive branch. They are charged with implementing and enforcing the laws made by state legislatures. To date, there are 749 state executive officials spread among the 13 distinct state executive offices in the U.S. This year, there are 165 state executive offices up for election across 29 states.

The study also found that 19.7% of partisan races did not have major party competition (meaning either a Democrat or Republican is currently running uncontested), the highest rate in even-year elections since at least 2012, when Ballotpedia began collecting this data. The two previous presidential year election cycles, 2012 and 2016, saw rates of 11.8% and 12.8%, respectively. The decade average for races without major party competition is 12.9%.

• In the 137 state executive partisan races this year, 19.7% do not have major party competition. This is the highest rate since at least 2012.
   
• Of the 102 incumbents subject to primaries rather than solely conventions, 63.0% advanced to the general election without a contested primary.
   
• Of the 58 open state executive races this year, 11 of them (19.0%) occurred because term limits prevented the incumbent from running again.

Click the link below for more details on the report.

Learn more

       

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Help Desk preview: The life cycle of a mail-in ballot

The 2020 election is taking place against a backdrop of uncertainty. We understand you may have questions about what to expect in elections at all levels of government, from the casting of ballots to the certification of final results. That’s why two weeks ago, we launched the 2020 Help Desk Newsletter—to bring you the answers you need to vote. 

I wanted to give you a preview of some of the content we’re bringing our Help Desk subscribers: the life cycle of an absentee/mail-in ballot.

Absentee/mail-in voting does not happen in person on Election Day; instead, it occurs another way (generally by mail). All states allow for some form of absentee/mail-in voting. Most have enacted policies to encourage or expand on absentee/mail-in voting in 2020 in response to the Covid-19 outbreak. Consequently, political pundits and other observers have estimated that 2020 will see historic rates of absentee/mail-in voting.

We’ve divided the life cycle of an absentee/mail-in ballot into three parts.

Obtaining a ballot: A voter can obtain an absentee/mail-in ballot in one of two ways: by submitting a request to election officials or, in the case of states that conduct their elections predominantly by mail, automatically. For the 2020 general election, all but nine states require a voter to submit a request or application form in order to receive an absentee/mail-in ballot.

Returning a ballot: Once a voter has received an absentee/mail-in ballot, he or she will need to return it by a fixed deadline in order to have it counted. A voter may be able to return the ballot in person or by mail. These deadlines and return options vary by state.

Processing and counting returned ballots: Upon receiving completed absentee/mail-in ballots, election officials must first process the ballots before they can be counted. Processing generally entails verifying voter signatures and physically preparing ballots for tabulation. Processing practices can vary widely from state to state. Counting entails the actual tabulation of votes.



Click the link below to learn more about each stage, and click here to subscribe to the Help Desk and receive that newsletter in your inbox this afternoon.

Explore Arizona elections

For today’s election previews, we’re looking at Arizona and Michigan. Here are the states we've highlighted so far, along with a map below summarizing where we are in the series:

Week One: Alabama, Arkansas, California, Texas, North Carolina, Mississippi, Illinois, Ohio, Nebraska, and Oregon

Week Two: Montana, New Mexico, Iowa, South Dakota, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Idaho, Maryland, Nevada, and South Carolina

Week Three: North Dakota and West Virginia, Georgia and New York, Kentucky and Virginia, Colorado and Utah, New Jersey and Oklahoma

Week Four: Maine and Missouri

On the ballot in Arizona

At the federal level, Arizona voters will elect 11 presidential electors, one U.S. Senator, and nine U.S. Representatives. Three seats on the Arizona Corporation Commission are up for election. Both chambers of the state legislature are on the ballot, with all 30 seats up in the state Senate and all 60 state House districts. Three seats on the state supreme court and 11 intermediate appellate court seats are on the ballot. Voters will also decide on two statewide ballot measures. Ballotpedia is tracking local elections taking place in six cities, two counties, and 42 school districts.

Partisan data

• In 2016, Donald Trump (R) defeated Hillary Clinton (D) 49% to 45% in Arizona. The Republican nominee has won Arizona in all but one presidential election since 1952. Bill Clinton (D) won the state in 1996.
• One of Arizona’s U.S. Senators, Kyrsten Sinema, is a Democrat. Its other U.S. Senator, Martha McSally, is a Republican.
• Democrats represent five of Arizona’s U.S. House districts and Republicans represent four.
• Arizona’s governor and attorney general are Republicans and its secretary of state is a Democrat, meaning it is one of 14 states with divided triplex control. It has held this status since Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (D) assumed office in 2019.
• Republicans have a 17-13 majority in the state Senate and a 31-29 majority in the state House. Because the governor is a Republican, Arizona is one of 21 states with a Republican trifecta. Republicans have had a trifecta in the state since 2009.

Battleground races

Here are two battleground races in Arizona this year:

• U.S. Senate special election: Incumbent Sen. Martha McSally (R), Mark Kelly (D), and seventeen write-in candidates are running in the special election for United States Senate in Arizona to fill the rest of the 2017-2022 term former Sen. John McCain (R) won in 2016. In the 2018 general election, McSally ran for Arizona’s other Senate seat, losing to Kyrsten Sinema (D) 47.6% to 50.0%.
• Arizona’s 6th Congressional District: Incumbent David Schweikert (R) and Hiral Tipirneni (D) are running in Arizona's 6th Congressional District election. Schweikert was re-elected in 2018, defeating Anita Malik (D) 55% to 45%. Tipirneni was the Democratic nominee in the special and regular elections for Arizona's 8th Congressional District in 2018, losing to incumbent Debbie Lesko (R) 48% to 52% and 44.5% to 55.5%, respectively.

Ballot measures

• Arizona voters will decide two statewide measures on Nov. 3.
• Signature petition drives were used to qualify both measures for the ballot. Proposition 207 would legalize the recreational possession and use of marijuana. Proposition 208 would increase the tax on incomes exceeding $250,000 to fund teacher salaries and schools.

Voting

• A court order extended Arizona's voter registration deadline from Oct. 5 to Oct. 15.
• Arizona does not require witnesses or notaries to sign absentee/mail-in ballot return documents.  
• Voters can return their absentee/mail-in ballots in person or by mail. Ballots must be received by the time polls close on Nov. 3 in order to be counted. Click here to check the status of your ballot.
• In the 2018 general election, absentee/mail-in ballots represented 77.8% of all ballots cast in Arizona.
• Arizona law allows officials to begin processing and counting ballots on Oct. 20.
• Arizona requires all voters to present non-photo identification at the polls. For more information about Arizona's voter ID requirements, click here. 
• Early voting opened on Oct. 7 and closes on Oct. 30.
• In Arizona, polls are open from 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Election Day. Arizona is in the Mountain time zone.

Explore Michigan elections

On the ballot in Michigan

At the federal level, Michigan voters will elect 16 presidential electors, one U.S. Senator, and 14 U.S. Representatives. Two seats on the State Board of Education, two seats on the University of Michigan Board of Regents, two seats on the Michigan State University Board of Trustees, and two seats on the Wayne State University Board of Governors are up for election. All 110 state House districts are on the ballot. One state legislative special election is on the ballot. Two seats on the state supreme court and 11 intermediate appellate court seats are on the ballot. Voters will also decide on two statewide ballot measures. Ballotpedia is tracking local elections taking place in one county and three school districts.

Partisan data

• In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) defeated Hillary Clinton (D) 47.5% to 47.3% in Michigan. Trump was the first Republican presidential candidate to win Michigan since George H.W. Bush (R) in 1988.
• There are 12 Pivot Counties in Michigan. Pivot Counties voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012, then voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. 
• Both of Michigan's U.S. Senators—Debbie Stabenow and Gary Peters—are Democrats.
• Democrats represent seven of the state's U.S. House districts. Republicans represent six. Libertarians represent one.
• Michigan's governor, attorney general, and secretary of state are all Democrats. This makes Michigan one of 17 Democratic triplexes. It has held this status since 2019.
• Republicans have a 22-16 majority in the state Senate and a 58-51 majority in the state House. Since the governor is a Democrat, Michigan is one of 14 states with a divided government. It has held this status since 2019, when Gretchen Whitmer (D) became governor.

Battleground races

Here are four battleground elections in Michigan in 2020:

• U.S. Senate: Incumbent Gary Peters (D), John James (R), Marcia Squier (G), Doug Dern (Natural Law Party), and Valerie Willis (U.S. Taxpayers Party of Michigan) are running. Peters was first elected in 2014 defeating Terri Lynn Land (R) 55% to 41%. James challenged incumbent Debbie Stabenow (D) in Michigan’s Senate election in 2018, losing 46% to 52%. 
• Michigan's 3rd Congressional District: Hillary Scholten (D) and Peter Meijer (R) are running. Incumbent Justin Amash—who was elected and re-elected as a Republican, changed his affiliation to independent in 2019, then changed his affiliation to Libertarian this year—is not seeking re-election. In 2018, Amash defeated Democrat Cathy Albro 54% to 43%.
• Michigan's 6th Congressional District: Incumbent Fred Upton (R), Jon Hoadley (D), John Lawrence (G), and Jeff DePoy (L) are running. Upton was first elected in 1986. In 2018, he defeated Matt Longjohn (D) 50% to 46%. That was Upton's closest election to date.
• Michigan's 8th Congressional District: Incumbent Elissa Slotkin (D), Paul Junge (R), and Joe Hartman (L) are running. Slotkin was first elected in 2018 after defeating incumbent Mike Bishop (R) 51% to 47%. The 8th District is one of 30 House districts represented by a Democrat in 2020 that Trump won in 2016. During the presidential election, Trump defeated Hillary Clinton 51% to 44% in the 8th District.  

Ballot measures

• Michigan voters will decide two statewide measures on Nov. 3.
• The Michigan Legislature referred two constitutional amendments to the ballot. Proposal 1 would revise the formula for how state and local park funds from trusts can be spent. Proposal 2 would require a search warrant to access a person's electronic data.

Voting

• Michigan changed its rules in 2020 allowing election officials to automatically send absentee/mail-in ballot applications to all registered voters in the general election.
• Michigan does not require witnesses or notaries to sign absentee/mail-in ballot return documents.  
• Voters can return their ballots in person or by mail. Ballots must be received by 8 p.m. on Nov. 3. Click here to check the status of your ballot.
• In the 2018 general election, absentee/mail-in ballots represented 24.35% of all ballots cast in Michigan.
• In cities and townships with at least 25,000 people, election officials can begin processing absentee/mail-in ballots on Nov. 2. Officials can begin counting ballots on Nov. 3.
• Michigan requires all voters to present photo identification at the polls. For more information about Michigan's voter ID requirements, click here. 
• Early voting opened on Sept. 24 and closes on Nov. 2.
• In Michigan, polls are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. on Election Day. Michigan is split between the Eastern and Central time zones.

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