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This week we are featuring our special report on the importance of
fixing family care in America. Keep scrolling for Today's On Tap!

Why Universal Family Care Belongs Atop the Progressive Agenda

An introduction to our special issue on how to solve the family care
crisis BY DAVID DAYEN

The Failed Economics of Care Work

The care market is high-value but offers little reward to providers.
Economists don't know how to explain this. BY JANELLE JONES

Missed Opportunities, Partial Solutions

Why America doesn't have a system of family care BY KIMBERLY J. MORGAN

Running on Empty
Small-business owners providing child care struggled to survive with low
pay and long hours before the pandemic. Now they're verging on
collapse. BY BRYCE COVERT

Care Workers Organizing for Dignity

Faced with low wages and uncertain financial futures, workers are
raising their voices. BY MARCIA BROWN

How the Pandemic Disrupted Care

Families have been forced into impossible decisions to ensure that their
loved ones get the assistance they need. BY TASMIHA KHAN

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OCTOBER

**19, 2020**

Kuttner on TAP

Post-Election Day Purgatory?

Here's the latest good news/bad news forecast about whether the
election can be called on Election Day. The New York Times

has very helpfully explored the degree of mess in seven key swing
states.

In Pennsylvania and North Carolina, the Republicans have made it so
difficult to count all early and vote-by-mail ballots by Election Day
that the odds of a complete tally in those states by election night are
vanishingly small no matter how big Biden wins. However, the news is
better in other swing states.

Arizona and Michigan will probably have complete counts by November 3 or
the morning after. Wisconsin has raised obstacles to voting, but less so
to counting. Even Florida, where a lot of Republicans have voted by
mail, is not too bad. It may take one more day, but the result will be
known in these states by Wednesday.

Bottom line: If we go to the electoral map, Biden can still be projected
as the Electoral College winner on Election Day or the day after, even
if Pennsylvania and North Carolina are still in prolonged limbo. He can
even win without Florida, though winning Florida would be a huge
symbolic gain that would intensify the pressure for Trump to concede.

Here are the numbers . If Biden as expected
carries the swing states where polls show him well ahead (Virginia,
Colorado, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, New Hampshire), he wins 286
Electoral College votes without Pennsylvania, North Carolina, or
Florida. He even gets to a bare 270 without Michigan.

And he is likely to win Arizona as well, for another 11 votes. Wisconsin
would give him 10 more. So Biden has many ways to run the available
table and get well over 270 by November 4, even with these expected long
counts in a few states that he could eventually win as well.

That's not to say, of course, that Trump will concede. He and his
allies will mount every conceivable challenge, no matter how
far-fetched.

~ ROBERT KUTTNER

Follow Robert Kuttner on Twitter

Robert Kuttner's latest book is
The Stakes: 2020 and the Survival of American Democracy
.

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