Exit polls released early today show Bolivia’s socialist candidate holds an insurmountable lead (WaPo) in the presidential election held yesterday.

​Two exit polls show former finance minister Luis Arce Catacora winning more than 50 percent (BBC) of the vote, which would be enough to avoid a runoff election. Though it could take days for official results to be announced, U.S.-recognized interim President Jeanine Anez tweeted her congratulations (AP) to Arce and his running mate. Arce’s win would be a stunning comeback (Guardian) for the party of former President Evo Morales, who fled to Argentina after last year’s election and was barred from running again.

New Zealand reelected Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern (NZ Herald) by a landslide, with her Labour Party capturing nearly half the votes cast, allowing it to form a government without creating a coalition with another party. Ardern, who has emerged as a hero of the left (NYT), won support for her handling of the coronavirus pandemic.

Thailand: Tomorrow, the cabinet will discuss calling a special session of parliament (Bangkok Post) amid widespread protests demanding Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha’s resignation.

​CFR’s Joshua Kurlantzick explains the political unrest in Thailand.

Kyrgyzstan’s acting president, Sadyr Japarov, said he would run for a full term (Reuters) in office if the country’s constitution is amended. Japarov, who was also named prime minister, assumed the powers of the presidency last week following the resignation of Sooronbay Jeenbekov. Kyrgyzstan’s constitution bars caretaker presidents from running in elections they oversee.

​Afghanistan: U.S. special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad rejected as “unfounded” (TOLO) the Taliban’s claim that the United States had violated its peace agreement with the group. The Taliban said recent U.S. air strikes violated the deal, though a U.S. military spokesperson said the strikes were carried out to defend Afghan forces, in accordance with the agreement.

Officials in Iran said the country will begin responsibly selling arms (Al Jazeera) after a UN embargo on conventional weapons deals with Tehran lapsed yesterday. The embargo’s expiration means that Iran can buy or sell conventional weapons, such as tanks and fighter jets, without a challenge from the UN Security Council. The United States, which attempted to reinstate the UN ban and has unilaterally imposed sanctions, maintains an arms embargo on Iran.

​CFR’s David J. Scheffer looks at the flawed U.S. attempt to revive Iran sanctions.

Bahrain/Israel: An Israeli delegation flew to Bahrain to sign a joint communique establishing diplomatic relations (Haaretz). The two countries are expected to sign a second declaration further deepening ties, but it is not expected to be as ambitious as the accord between Israel and the United Arab Emirates due to opposition in Bahrain to normalization with Israel.

The results of Guinea’s presidential election (France24) are being tabulated following a mostly calm day of voting yesterday, though there are fears of postelection unrest. President Alpha Conde is seeking a controversial third term after amending the constitution.

​Ivory Coast: Assailants burned down the home (AP) of a leading opposition presidential candidate, and one of his party’s offices was attacked amid rising tensions ahead of the election later this month.

Armenia and Azerbaijan accused each other of violating a cease-fire agreement (RFE/RL) in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh hours after it took effect this weekend. It was the second truce negotiated in an attempt to end the renewed conflict, which has killed hundreds in the worst fighting since a war between the two countries ended in 1994.

Carey Cavanaugh explains the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh for CFR’s Strength Through Peace blog.

​Cyprus: Right-wing nationalist politician Ersin Tatar won a surprise victory (BBC) in Turkish-controlled northern Cyprus’s presidential election. Tatar advocates dividing Cyprus into two separate states, while his opponent sought reunification with the internationally recognized, Greek-controlled part of the island.

Two churches were burned and stores were looted as protesters clashed with police in Santiago yesterday ahead of a referendum on whether to rewrite the country’s dictatorship-era constitution (WSJ). The protests, which were mostly peaceful during the day, marked the anniversary of anti-government demonstrations last year that led to the referendum.

Chinese officials have warned the Donald J. Trump administration that China could detain U.S. citizens (NYT) if the Justice Department proceeds with the prosecutions of Chinese scholars linked to the military, U.S. officials said. At least five Chinese scholars have been arrested in recent months for failing to disclose military ties on their visa applications.