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**OCTOBER 16, 2020**

Kuttner on TAP

Someone's Crazy Uncle

****

NBC redeemed itself, sort of, with moderator Savannah Guthrie, whose
tough questioning of Trump put other media pushovers like Chris Wallace
to shame.

Best line of the night, maybe of the year: "You're the president.
You're not, like, someone's crazy uncle who can just retweet
whatever."

But of course Trump is exactly like someone's crazy uncle. That was
floridly on display at last night's town hall, and Trump did himself
no favors with swing voters.

Biden, who projected decency and honor, keeps gaining in the polls. But
even if Biden wins big on election night, Trump and his allies at the
state level will seize ballot boxes and challenge results in the courts.
The bigger Biden wins, the more Trump will cry fraud.

At that point, Trump has three ways to try to overturn the election. He
will likely use them all.

Way One: All of the suits eventually end up at the Supreme Court, which
does a repeat of

**Bush v. Gore**, state by state, basically calling winners. There will
only be six or seven of these that matter-Pennsylvania, Florida, North
Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, and maybe Ohio if Biden wins in
a blowout.

Had Ruth Bader Ginsburg lived another three months, Chief Justice John
Roberts might well have sided with the Court's four liberals, and
refused to allow Trump to win a second term in a coup. Now, Roberts will
have to bring along one or more of the Trump appointees-either Neil
Gorsuch, something of a Court institutionalist, or Brett Kavanaugh, or
that pretend blank slate, Amy Coney Barrett. A long shot, perhaps, but
not impossible.

Way Two: Trump's allies in state legislatures reverse the popular
result and file competing slates of electors. Unless Democrats flip
House majorities in three states in the incoming Congress, the House
presumably votes for the Republican electors.

Way Three: Violence. Regardless of the outcome, there will be millions
of people protesting in the streets. Most of those inclined to violence
will be from the Trumpian right, though a few far-lefties may add to the
chaos. All of this gives Trump a pretext to invoke the Insurrection Act
and call in the military.

Takeaways: Trump can continue making a fool of himself, and Biden could
win all of the swing states on Election Day; but we still can't rest
easy until January 20. Yet the bigger the win, the less likely it is to
be overturned. I sure wish this were all safely in the history books
instead of unfolding insanely day by day.

~ ROBERT KUTTNER

Follow Robert Kuttner on Twitter

Robert Kuttner's latest book is
The Stakes: 2020 and the Survival of American Democracy
.

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