October 16, 2020: Forty-four percent (44%) of likely voters nationwide believe former Vice President Joe Biden will win the 2020 presidential election. A Political IQ national survey found that 43% believe President Donald Trump will be re-elected.[1]
Supporters of each candidate are very confident. Eighty-seven percent (87%) of Trump voters believe he will win. Eighty percent (80%) of Biden supporters believe he will emerge victorious.[1]
Those numbers reflect little change since the summer. In July, 91% of Trump supporters expected victory along with 81% of Biden supporters.[1]
Polling both by Scott Rasmussen and all polling averages show Biden with a lead nationally and in key states. The fact that many Trump supporters still expect victory may result from several factors. One is the belief that the polls are simply wrong (or even fake). For many, that's the key lesson from 2016. However, the polls weren't as bad as the legend that has grown up around that election.[1]
Another reason for confidence among Trump supporters may be a belief in a strong comeback or a strong Republican turnout. Political IQ polls conducted by Scott Rasmussen have shown the president trailing narrowly in Florida and North Carolina. However, in both cases, the strong Republican turnout model shows the president ahead. In Pennsylvania, the president pulls to within two points with a strong Republican turnout. That's close enough to be competitive.
However, President Trump would likely have to win all three to be re-elected.[1]
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