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Bolton was Netanyahu’s best chance at war with Iran, whether waged by the United States or by Israel.He was also the most passionate advocate in the cabinet for the most hardline Israeli policies. Both Netanyahu and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman must now be worried that the possibility of dialogue between the U.S. and Iran is significantly more likely than it was a day ago.
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President Trump’s abrupt cancellation of planned peace talks at Camp David between the Taliban and the Afghan government seems to have had the immediate effect of ousting his national security adviser, John Bolton. But the larger implications, particularly for prospects for a peace accord and the calculations of regional powers are still being assessed. LobeLog called on its South Asia expert, Fatemeh Aman, to answer some pertinent questions.
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What President Trump could use most right now is a national security adviser who will restore an orderly policymaking process in which policy options are carefully considered, from all angles and by everyone in the executive branch with relevant responsibilities. But given Trump’s own operating style, that is probably not going to happen.
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If Trump, as he indicated during the G7 summit in France, is after a “better deal” that, among other issues, addresses Iran’s regional policies, he first needs to understand the rationale that drives these policies and acknowledge the geopolitical challenges that are at the center of Iran’s reach across the region.
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By appointing Greenblatt to lead efforts to solve one of the most sensitive problems in foreign affairs, Trump has pushed Palestinians toward greater desperation, Israel toward a seemingly unsolvable dilemma, and the U.S. even further away from any respected position of leadership in the Middle East.
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Recent events have shown that there are areas in which Amman and Riyadh differ when it comes to regional issues, mainly the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. A Jordan-Qatar-Turkey alliance will likely be more aligned with the Palestinians in their approach to that conflict. What remains to be seen is how effective this alliance will be in advancing the Palestinian cause.
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There has been a considerable weakening of U.S. military-political power in Iraq, with the diffusion of some U.S. military capabilities into Syria. These changes—along with others that have taken place in the Arabian Peninsula and elsewhere in the region—undoubtedly affect the balance of power between Israel and Iran. But the inescapable facts, that Hizbullah can cause wide damage within Israel’s heartland and withstand the strongest counter-attacks that Israel can launch against it, still remain.
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Iran’s strategy is responsible for getting the country to the threshold of direct talks with the United States, and on relatively even terms at that. For talks to take place and succeed, it is now up to the U.S. side to play ball. Trump needs to keep spoilers, both in Washington and the Middle East, at bay, and offer Iran some sort of economic relief before the talks can commence.
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The Houthis are a corrupt and deeply militarized group, but they crave political legitimacy from their neighbors and regional actors, and are willing to make sacrifices to achieve it. Ending the international military conflict may lead them to adopt other approaches, create new alliances, and cooperate with former foes. This might be the best hope for the change in behavior that war, and diplomacy, have so far failed to accomplish.
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Rouhani said that the U.S. must first lift the sanctions. Given Trump’s often erratic behavior, we cannot rule out the possibility that he might agree to temporarily suspend some sanctions and provisionally allow the Iranians to sell some of their oil. It is a possibility worth exploring. If Iranian conservatives win next year’s elections and if Trump is re-elected, the window of opportunity for talks will close. It is now or never.
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To do Iran any good, any talk with Washington should be about the real causes of tension between the two states, and that is Iran’s posture on the Palestinian dispute and Israel. Iran’s support for terrorism means its ties to Hezbollah and Hamas. If Iran wants to limit talks to Persian Gulf security and sanctions, they are unlikely to succeed.
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Despite the civilized terminology of modern international relations, the old rule that “might makes right” is very much alive and well in the interactions of states. There are at least three full scale sieges going on in the Middle East today. They may lack the colorful appurtenances of the distant past, and they involve entire states rather than fortified towns, but the purpose is just as grim as any knightly undertaking.
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