Dear CV Friend,

People ask me every day:

"Do you believe the polls?"

"Can he win?"

That last question is the easiest to answer. Of course, Trump can
win.

Voter sentiment today is impossible to predict with real
accuracy. Pollsters broadly show Joe Biden with almost the exact
same advantage held by Hillary Clinton at this point in 2016.
And we know how that turned out.

But there's more. Here's our case for Trump winning:

TRUST THE POLLS?

Every poll includes certain assumptions about respondents'
honesty, candidate preference, likelihood of voting, and actual
turnout. Polls taken in 2016 were notoriously wrong. But many
forget that two years later "new and improved" polls were again
error-ridden, especially in key states.

For example, polls in FL on the eve of the election in 2018
showed Democrat Andrew Gillum up 5-7 percent. He lost by
approximately .5%, a 5-8 percentage point swing. Or the FOX News
poll on the Indiana Senate race predicted Democrat Joe Donnelly
would win by 7%. Republican Mike Braun won instead by almost 6%
-- an almost 13% point swing!

ENTHUSIASM GAP

From rallies, to boat parades, to surveys, the evidence is clear:
President Trump has a 2-1 advantage when it comes to voter
enthusiasm. By an overwhelming margin, Trump voters are excited
to reelect the President. Conversely, Biden supporters are
anti-Trump, but far less excited about their candidate.

TURNOUT SURGE

A recent strategy memo from a major election consulting group
reported that a mere 2-point increase in voter turnout among
non-college-educated white voters could turn a modest Biden
victory into a commanding win by President Trump. Just 2%.
Polls are forecasts. This election will be decided by who turns
out to vote.

Finally, here are a few things happening over the next few weeks
that will likely work in President Trump's favor...

We're likely to see the confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett to the
Supreme Court. Confirming solid jurists to the federal bench,
especially the Supreme Court, is a winning issue for Republicans
-- and a demoralizing one for Democrats. After all, Republicans
picked up two senate seats in the so-called "blue wave" of 2018,
immediately after the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh.

We're also expecting further evidence of the historic economic
rebound as third quarter economic reports are released in the
coming weeks. Americans have credited Trump for the economy
throughout his first term, even with the shutdown. And it
remains his #1 issue.

President Trump is now campaigning with gusto at rallies. In
fact, he is expected to travel every day between now and the
election. See enthusiasm gap above.

Despite Democratic efforts to continue to stoke fear, concern
about the coronavirus pandemic continues to decline. Even the
New York Times admitted that President Trump's "Operation Warp
Speed" is fast-tracking vaccines and therapeutics, with
hospitalizations and deaths at their lowest levels of the year.
America is beating the virus.

Finally, perhaps the most obvious evidence this race isn't over
and that Biden isn't up by 10 points? Why would Nancy Pelosi
make a big push for legislation to set up a commission to remove
President Trump from office out of health concerns if she thought
he would lose big in three weeks?

The media was absolutely gobsmacked on election night when Donald
Trump shocked the world in 2016.

Wouldn't you love to see that again?

We sure would.

Chip in here to help us keep it going.
[link removed]

Brian


P.S. What else are Pelosi and the Democrats up to? They are now
competing hard in Nebraska, one of only two states that split
their electoral votes. Eastern Nebraska includes Omaha, and that
one electoral vote could make the difference in the electoral
college. Obama-Biden won this electoral vote in 2008 and the
latest polling shows the district a tossup.

The good news: CV just hired a full time person in Nebraska to
help us build a team to make direct contact with nearly 60,000
key Catholic voters in Omaha.



PAID FOR BY CATHOL‌ICVOTE.ORG. NOT AUTHORIZED BY ANY CANDIDATE
OR CANDIDATE'S COMMITTEE.
P.‌O. Box 259‌837 | Madi‌son, WI 53725 | (312) 201-6559



This message was intended for: [email protected]
You were added to the system July 26, 2019.
For more information please follow the URL below:
[link removed]

Follow the URL below to Update your Preferences or to
Unsubscribe:
[link removed]

To unsubscribe from future mailings, send an email to mailto:unsub-38231692969-echo7-1CC3F9B81F77D2DB49AB28CC7B60C9F1@emailsendr.net?Subject=Unsubscribe&body=Please%20remove%20me%20from%20further%20mailings
with "Unsubscribe" as the subject line.