A joke that has now grown tiresome involves the Trump era having a writers room like a TV show, and every time some twist or turn takes place remarking that "the writers" are on top of their game or are falling back on old clichés. So what the writers are throwing at us now is a consequential presidential election dovetailing with a second surge of COVID-19 cases (at least we think they are; it’s possible that we’re looking at some misdiagnosed flu cases as well).

While testing has increased this month, case numbers have gone up more sharply, and hospitalizations are back on the increase. While the percentage of positive cases has hovered in the 5 percent range for a month and a half, this aggregate number masks high positivity rates in much of the country, balanced by low numbers and significant testing in the Northeast. Even there, the seven-day case average has gone up in the last week. This is a true second wave, not just the new presence of COVID in different areas of a large country. And it tracks with the global picture; on Friday cases worldwide hit a new record.

The case counts haven’t shown up in the death toll but you wouldn’t expect it to just yet. And given what we know about long-haul COVID patients, heart disease and other ailments associated with the virus, and so-called "brain fog," a lower mortality rate—which is expected when you have world-class doctors learning more about a pathology through repetition of hundreds of thousands of hospitalizations—doesn’t really remove the full danger of the disease.

But here’s the part that has me thinking about the writers. We already suspected that colder weather would push people indoors and create a surge of additional infections; the summer was supposed to be the moment of reprieve, one that we in the United States never managed to have. But a closer look at exactly where the outbreak is happening in the U.S. reveals a rather consistent overlay with the electoral map.

Yes, the coronavirus map reveals hotspots almost everywhere, but it is somewhat more muted in the Northeast and the West coast, where there are few surprises expected in the presidential race. But look at the Midwestern "blue wall": Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are all trending in the wrong direction. Pennsylvania has cases, hospitalizations and deaths all shooting upward; Michigan has the first two, with deaths lagging; Wisconsin plays host to one of the biggest uncontrolled outbreaks in the country; they just set up a field hospital at the state fair park in West Allis to handle sick patients. Iowa is on the edge of being a swing state, but the outbreak there is really bad.

In North Carolina cases and hospital stays have started to inch back up. Florida has hit a plateau after coming down significantly, but it just opened up its entire economy, so who knows the ramifications of that. Arizona is in a similar position with a slight upswing.

Projecting what this looks like three weeks from now on Election Day is difficult. But it’s highly likely that we’re looking at uncontrolled spread in precisely the most important states electorally, just as a mass national indoor event takes place. Estimates indicate that Democrats are voting early and with absentee ballots at much higher rates than Republicans. That tracks consistently with opinion polls showing Democrats taking the virus far more seriously. Given the nature of the spread, early and in-home voting is fast becoming a public health imperative.

Maybe you thought that my first story of the day would be about the stimulus talks happening on Capitol Hill. But I don’t think there are any actual talks happening. Real negotiations would involve the faction needed for passage that has consistently been skeptical of moving forward. Those would be the Senate Republicans, who are not at the table in the White House/House Democratic talks.

This weekend, a White House briefing for the Senate GOP quickly devolved into recriminations, with Senators claiming that voters will punish members for making a relief deal. That’s unlikely, but fits with the ideological conservative aversion to spending a couple trillion dollars. At least 20 are publicly opposed and the real number is probably much higher. Complainants included Lamar Alexander (R-TN), who’s both retiring and therefore shouldn’t care about any electoral implications, and close to Mitch McConnell, so a good proxy for his views on the matter.

"In short, a significant and important chunk of Senate Republicans hate everything about the package… and, at this juncture, it has absolutely no chance of even getting brought up in that chamber," Playbook wrote on Sunday. The fact that Mark Meadows and Steve Mnuchin are now switching gears to call for restarting the Paycheck Protection Program with unused funds, something Trump urged a week ago, shows the desperation here. That Larry Kudlow is saying the deal isn’t dead, given his track record, is usually a sure sign that the deal is dead.

This is why I’m utterly flummoxed by a boomlet of commentary advising Nancy Pelosi to "take the deal" offered by the White House, one that now touches $1.8 trillion. What deal? If Mitch McConnell isn’t involved it does not exist. There’s this thought that Donald Trump has a totemic quality, where he can whip any Republican into line with a tweet, but that was the Trump who was not down by 12 points and dragging the entire ticket into the muck. Republicans are dying to distance themselves from Trump now, and rejecting a big spending bill offers the perfect opportunity.

Are there 60 votes for a spending bill of this type in the Senate? Perhaps. But there doesn’t seem to be any way that Mitch McConnell, more concerned with the Supreme Court fight and coasting to re-election, would mess with both by breaking the Hastert rule and pass something of this significance with all Democrats and a handful of Republicans. It’s the only thing that could harm his electoral chances, and the timing would be extremely hazardous.

In fact, there’s some thought that said timing, and not any real concerns, is informing Pelosi’s reticence to strike a deal. I will say that Pelosi is going out of her way to build substantive opposition, employing all of her leading committee chairs to denounce the White House offer as well. Complaints include: inadequate spending on testing and bureaucratic red tape on the same, low definitions for "community spread," no national tracing plan, vague warnings of slush funds, lack of expansion of the Child Tax Credit and Earned Income Tax Credit, a reduced federal unemployment boost and something regarding clawbacks of other funds from the unemployed, no second draw on PPP, and a dozen other nitpicks.

These aren’t exactly compelling points of opposition, given that the alternative is nothing. But if Pelosi is trying to mess with the Barrett nomination, she would hold out until next Monday, agree to the toplines and spend a week nailing down legislative language, and then kick a passed bill to the Senate on October 26. At that point, Donald Trump would be screaming for the Senate to act, and they’d have one week to pass this major legislation and the Barrett nomination. McConnell would have to prioritize what to do, with major political downsides in either direction.

I don’t think McConnell can functionally put the bill on the floor. But laying bare GOP priorities would have major political value. In fact, Democrats don’t have to wait to extract that value right now.

I was on the "On the Ground" program on Pacifica in D.C. discussing coronavirus and the economy. Listen here. (On the Ground)
Silicon Valley firms follow up on allowing remote work by trying to claw back cost of living increases. Wow. (Wall Street Journal)
State and local governments need to get more comfortable with borrowing to avoid austerity. (City Monitor)
The Trump campaign misappropriates Dr. Fauci’s words for a campaign ad. (NBC News)
The "intensive care" state of private equity portfolio firms means little to private equity managers who have already cashed out. (Financial Times)
Curbside pickup can be a great equalizer, because your local store, big-box or otherwise, is closer than an Amazon warehouse. (CNBC)
The private sector cannot be a spender of last resort. (New York Times)
One bank in Florida has made about 40 percent of all the loans and 25 percent of all the loan value for the Main Street Lending Program. (Wall Street Journal)