Although the ongoing debate about how to tackle Covid-19 – and remedy the economic damage it has wrought – often resembles little more than tactical, day-to-day crisis management, the Institute of Economic Affairs has been drawing longer term lessons and conclusions from the pandemic.
At the start of the week, we released a new research paper by IEA Chairman Neil Record. Neil sought to determine what sort of policy mix might enable the Chancellor to repair the parlous state of the public finances while simultaneously promoting growth and productivity in the private sector. His conclusion is that a return to the lower tax rates and less burdensome regulatory environment of the 1990s would be a good place to start.
The guests on my weekly YouTube show, "Live with Littlewood", also sought to draw some long-term lessons from current events. Over the course of ninety minutes we debated revealed versus stated preferences, problems with central planning, and how data can't always be the driver of sensible policy-making. The particular circumstances of the Covid crisis may be unique, but there are perennial IEA teachings which remain highly relevant to tackling it.
Finally, undeterred by this year’s party conference season being cancelled, the IEA ran our annual ThinkTent event in virtual form. Panel discussions covered such topics as the future of broadcasting, climate change, the future of railways and threats to freedom of speech. Further details below – and you can catch up with the whole programme of debates here.
I hope you’ll agree that the IEA continues to be at the forefront of sound, informed, free market thinking as we start to pilot a way out of the pandemic lockdown and towards a new age of freedom and prosperity. Thank you so much for your interest and support.
Mark Littlewood
Director General, Institute of Economic Affairs
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THINKTENT 2020
The seventh annual ThinkTent looked slightly different to the previous six – there was no tent for a start – but the joint project between the Institute of Economic Affairs and the TaxPayers’ Alliance was as much a success as ever.
The programme of fringe events, held at the Conservative Party Conference, began by asking if carbon taxes are the right’s answer to climate change. Soon thereafter The Heritage Foundation hosted Elizabeth Truss MP, Secretary of State for International Trade, alongside trade advisers Shanker Singham and Dan Hannan, for a discussion on UK free trade agreements post-Brexit, looking at the US and beyond.
Monday saw panellists including Treasury Select Committee member Steve Baker MP respond to the Chancellor’s speech to Conservative Party Conference and explore how we can ensure fiscal responsibility during the pandemic.
In partnership with the Free Speech Union, ThinkTent also held a debate, chaired by IEA Director General Mark Littlewood, on the free speech crisis with contributions from Toby Young, Inaya Folarin Iman, and Laurence Fox. Later that day, a panel in partnership with the RSSB examined whether the railways can get back on track post-Covid.
The final day started with a panel on the future of state broadcasters – with John Whittingdale MP, Minister of State for Media and Data, suggesting Channel 4 could be sold off in the near future.
It ended with a Live with Littlewood special, featuring The Spectator's Economics Correspondent Kate Andrews, the New Statesman's Political Editor Stephen Bush, DUP Member of Parliament Sammy Wilson, Conservative Member of Parliament Philip Davies, Matt Kilcoyne of the Adam Smith Institute, former Special Adviser James Price, and the Taxpayers’ Alliance's Chief Executive John O’Connell.
All the ThinkTent panels can be found on the ThinkTent YouTube Channel and the IEA FILM page. Live with Littlewood is available, as always, on our YouTube Channel.
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PUBS AND COVID-19
As Covid-19 cases have risen, pub and restaurant footfall has dropped. From 6pm on Friday hospitality firms serving more than half the Scottish population were forced to close their doors for at least 16 days. It has been reported that new restrictions for parts of England are likely from this week. Will the latest measures deliver a coup de grâce to the embattled sector?
A new IEA briefing paper, authored by our Head of Lifestyle Economics Christopher Snowdon and titled Pubs and Covid-19: Flawed Claims and Faulty Reasoning, examines some of the evidence on which pub closures appear to be based. It reveals that less than 5 per cent of infected individuals contacted by NHS Test and Trace say they have had close contact with another person in a hospitality venue.
Enforced pub closures in Bolton and Leicester, meanwhile, have not been associated with a decline in transmission of Covid-19, nor has the 10pm ‘curfew’ led to a decline in new infections nationwide.
In response to the measures, Christopher said:
"The hospitality sector is Britain’s third biggest employer and the social benefits of pubs and restaurants are immense. The government should only consider shutting them down again if the evidence is overwhelming. In fact, the evidence that pubs are a significant source of Covid-19 transmission is very weak.
"The curfew has been counter-productive. Pubs and restaurants are highly regulated environments. Shutting them down again is likely to make the situation worse."
Christopher also recorded a short interview with JD Wetherspoon Founder Tim Martin. Watch here.
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CREATING JOBS
At the start of the year the UK labour market was in its best shape for decades. However, the Covid-19 pandemic and measures imposed to mitigate its spread have put paid to the record levels of employment and low unemployment seen at the turn of the '20s.
How do we speed a recovery? Should we go down the route of a British ‘New Deal’, involving extensive government spending and increasing interference in the UK labour market? Or is there another way, by relaxing regulation and encouraging private enterprise to drive the recovery?
A new briefing paper, authored by IEA Editorial and Research Fellow Professor Len Shackleton, reviews the arguments and examines the case for:
– Scrapping much occupational licensing;
– The reform of minimum wages;
– Ending the apprenticeship levy; and
– Unpicking many other types of employment regulation.
Read the paper in full here – or Len's article in CapX covering the paper's main points here.
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YOU'RE INVITED
*IEA Book Club Webinars..
.. with Ronald Bailey and Marian Tupy – 'Ten Global Trends That Every Smart Person Needs to Know'
On Tuesday 13th October, from 6-7pm, the IEA Book Club will host Ronald Bailey and Marian Tupy, who will discuss their latest book 'Ten Global Trends That Every Smart Person Needs to Know: And Many Other Trends You Will Find Interesting'.
Think the world is getting worse? You’re wrong: the world is, for the most part, not getting worse. But 58 per cent of folks in 17 countries that were surveyed in 2016 thought the world is either getting worse or staying the same rather than getting better.
The uncontroversial data on major global trends in this book will persuade you that this dark view of the prospects for humanity and the natural world is, in large part, badly mistaken.
.. with Tim Harford – 'How to Make the World Add Up: Ten Rules for Thinking Differently About Numbers'
On Tuesday 20th October, from 6-7pm, the IEA Book Club will host, for the second time this year, the bestselling economist Tim Harford. Tim will discuss his forthcoming book 'How to Make the World Add Up: Ten Rules for Thinking Differently About Numbers'.
Using ten simple rules for understanding numbers – plus one golden rule – the book shows how if we keep our wits about us, thinking carefully about the way numbers are sourced and presented, we can look around us and see with crystal clarity how the world adds up.
These events are strictly for IEA Book Club members. For more information on this event and the Book Club please contact us at [email protected].
*Competing Aims: Reforming Tax Policy Across Europe After Covid
In light of the pandemic and the ensuing economic challenges, maximising revenues and kickstarting European economies will become the priority of political leaders all across Europe.
This seminar, held at 3pm on Thursday 15th October, will explore methods to achieve this and address the best tax policies in EU Member States that would be adaptable in other countries, whether the EU benefits from 27 different tax regimes, and the most efficient way the European Commission could increase its own revenues.
Register here.
*Sir Anthony Seldon on Arthur Seldon and the Future of Liberty
Today marks the 15th anniversary of the death of Arthur Seldon, economist and polemicist and co-founder of the Institute of Economic Affairs.
On Thursday 15th October from 6-7pm the IEA will hold an "in conversation" event with Arthur’s son, Sir Anthony Seldon, to reflect on his contribution to liberty and freedom, as well as discuss what challenges and opportunities face us – both nationally and globally – in furthering his legacy in the coming years.
Arthur Seldon was one of the founding fathers of the Institute of Economic Affairs back 1955. He was heavily involved in the running and management of the IEA and was a key part of the Thatcher revolution in 1979. Together with the IEA, Seldon worked to transform the mindset of policymakers and political commentators.
Sir Anthony Seldon is one of Britain’s leading contemporary historians, educationalists, commentators and political authors. He has written over 40 books on contemporary history.
The event will be chaired by Professor Len Shackleton, IEA Editorial and Research Fellow and Professor of Economics at the University of Buckingham.
Register here.
*Entrepreneurship: Why it’s needed – and how we can encourage it
A new book from Dr Eamonn Butler, Director of the Adam Smith Institute, explores and examines how entrepreneurship drives economic progress and how governments can create the optimal conditions for entrepreneurs to thrive.
What part does entrepreneurship play in boosting innovation, progress, productivity and growth – and why is this overlooked in economics textbooks? Do we underestimate the contributions of entrepreneurship, and how it affects us all as workers, consumers and citizens? How can the government best support entrepreneurs as we emerge from the Covid-19 crisis?
Dr Eamonn Butler will be joined on the panel by Enterprise Nation founder Emma Jones MBE, author and businessman Matt Ridley, and the event will be hosted by IEA Director of Communications Annabel Denham.
Register here.
*Schools Conferences
Our Programmes team are hosting free virtual economics conferences on 14th October (register here), and 6th November – from 9am-1pm (register here).
The conferences help prepare students for A-levels and introduce a free-market perspective to economics. Topics include the economics of the future, globalisation and the impact of China, the UK’s productivity puzzle, international aid and the developing world, market and government failure and the gender pay gap, to name but a few.
These are open to A-level and IB students and teachers. Please email Brittany Davis at [email protected] for more information.
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