TRUMP ENDS COVID TALKS. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews
Correspondent

Headlines from just hours ago about President Donald Trump’s health after his COVID-19 diagnosis and hospitalization have already been supplanted (with some wondering if that was the point) by those on his decision to end negotiations on the next pandemic economic relief package until after the election. 

But what does this mean?

Effects on people

• Some 11 million Americans currently claim unemployment benefits. 
• Without a deal, nearly all of them will see weekly benefits decline, some by as much as 60 percent. The president had provided an emergency addition of $300 or $400 a week, depending on the state. But that boost is only set to last five or six weeks.
• The two parties, despite being far apart on an overall plan, had both agreed to increase unemployment benefits by at least that amount. But without a deal, benefits will drop across the country, to on average as little as $180 a week. (Again, depending on the state.) 

Effects on businesses

• Businesses had until Aug. 8 to apply for the initial round of the Paycheck Protection Program. Without an extension of the program, any business that used the money could only use it once. For many, that money was used up months ago, and doesn’t cover needs right now. 
• The need for more federal funding largely depends on the type of business and where they are located.
• Restaurants and entertainment venues could face increased strain in the coming weeks as weather turns cold and they can no longer use outside spaces to serve customers while abiding social distancing rules.
• United Airlines and American Airlines have told 32,000 workers they will be furloughed beginning Thursday if there is no further federal aid. 

Various other effects

• Schools, some of them struggling to pay for cleanings and/or distance learning, were in line for at least $100 billion in help. 
• Lawmakers also were close to agreeing on $75 billion or more for coronavirus testing around the country.
• Neither of those will be funded soon if talks remain on hold as Trump said.

Effects on politics

• Roughly a dozen Democratic and Republican sources at the Capitol told the Newshour the president’s decision was “confusing” and did not have a clear political upside for him or his party.
• Until today, Republicans had argued that Democrats were the prime obstacle in the way of a COVID relief deal. But the president’s decision to so publicly walk away, reminiscent of his handling of the 2018 shutdown, placed the responsibility (and the blame) firmly on his shoulders.
• Trump’s move could help vulnerable Democrats, who can argue they are solutions-oriented while Republicans are playing politics with critical coronavirus aid.
• On the other hand, the president could be gambling that his voters are motivated by a bold move, standing up to and surprising leaders at the Capitol.
• Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell supported the president. He told reporters Trump made the decision because he believed the talks “were not going to produce a result, and we need to concentrate on what’s achievable.”

What happens next?

• Some Capitol Hill aides wonder if the president could reverse course again and try to reopen talks.
• If he does, it’s hard to see Democrats’ leader, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, rejoining before the election. 
• Democrats feel they could gain seats in the House and potentially win a majority in the Senate. They believe they will only gain leverage after the election.
• Whether he wins reelection or not, Trump will be in office when Congress returns in November and can again block any potential deal he does not like. It will take time to reach a new deal, and to get the money out the door.
• Bottom line: It now looks like the earliest any new aid could reach businesses and people is two months from now. And it could be much longer.

 

FIVE OVERLOOKED POLITICAL STORIES FROM THE PAST WEEK
By Ian Couzens, @iancouzenz
Politics production assistant

White House Blocked C.D.C. Order to Keep Cruise Ships Docked - Sept 30. The current “no sail” policy is set to expire tomorrow, despite CDC director Dr. Robert Redfield warning that allowing cruise ships to sail without proper precautions would compromise public health and could lead to viral outbreaks. Why it Matters: Redfield recommended extending the policy through February. And though the White House deputy press secretary said the administration’s decision was not politically motivated, the cruise ship industry has significant political influence in Florida, a key battleground state in the upcoming presidential election, which has some people questioning the White House’s motives in allowing ships to set sail Oct. 31-- The New York Times

Despite dropping out and endorsing Graham, third-party candidate could hurt SC senator - Oct 1.  Constitution Party candidate Bill Bledsoe dropped out of the race too close to the election w to be removed from t ballots in South Carolina. Why it matters: In the close race between Sen. Lindsey Graham and his Democratic challenger, Jaime Harrison, the name of another conservative above Graham’s on the ballot could peel away enough votes to give Harrison a victory and put Democrats one seat closer to taking control of the Senate. -- The Post & Courier

Sen. Pat Toomey to retire from politics in blow to GOP - Oct 5. The two-term fiscal conservative stated he will not run for reelection or for governor but will instead transition over to the private sector. Why it Matters: Despite Pennsylvania being a closely watched battleground state, Toomey is the only statewide elected Republican politician in office, meaning his retirement could put another Republican Senate seat in jeopardy in 2022. -- Politico 

EPA gives Oklahoma authority over many tribal environmental issues -- Oct. 5. The state requested the authority in July through a provision outlined in a 2005 transportation bill that gives Oklahoma oversight on environmental issues “in areas of the state that are in Indian country, without any further demonstration of authority by the state.” Why it matters: Critics of the move are concerned with how this affects tribal sovereignty on land where the federal and state government are not supposed to have any legal authority, and that the state could greenlight projects that pollute tribal lands without any say from the people who live there. -- The Hill

Michigan Supreme Court rules against Whitmer on emergency powers but effect unclear -- Oct. 3. The court’s opinion threw into question all of Whitmer’s emergency orders related to COVID-19, on one hand seeming to void them, but as the court’s decision came as a response to a federal judge's question and not as part of a state case, it wasn’t clear. Why it matters: In an effort to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 in Michigan, one of the hardest hit states early in the pandemic, Whitmer mandated mask wearing, forced certain business closures, restricted in-person gatherings and more, relying on her interpretation of the Emergency Powers Act of 1976 as granting her the authority. Now it’s unclear whether those orders stay in place. -- Detroit Free Press

 

#POLITICSTRIVIA
By Kate Grumke, @KGrumke
Politics producer

Presidential debates are the most viewed political events on television. The record for the most watched debate was the first debate between now President Donald Trump and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016, which had 84 million viewers. Vice presidential debates generally don’t draw as many viewers, but there is one notable exception.

Our question: Which vice presidential debate drew more viewers than the debates between that cycle’s presidential candidates?

Send your answers to [email protected] or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.

Last week, we asked: The last time a third party candidate made the debate stage in a presidential election was in 1992, when Ross Perot took the stage with George H. W. Bush and Bill Clinton. Who was the only other third party presidential candidate to be included in a general election debate?

The answer: John B. Anderson

Anderson debated Ronald Reagan in the first presidential debate of 1980, but he was not in the second, which featured Reagan and President Jimmy Carter. 

To mark the start of the presidential debates this year, NewsHour’s digital team has put together an incredible archive of every presidential debate since 1960. You can watch those debates that included third parties, and even vice presidential debates, at this link.

Congratulations to our winners: Robert Schmid and Bradley Robideau!!

Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your Inbox next week.