Preview

The Senate stands in recess, as Democrats consented to a two-week adjournment, delaying the fight over the confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett to October 19. This tightens the calendar for Republicans, as I noted yesterday, but four days confirmation hearings, a key signal that the nomination is proceeding, will go on next week (Democrats had no power to stop them, because the situation on the floor does not affect the ability for committees to hold hearings).

What matters is what happens after that. Under the current situation, Republicans don’t even have enough votes to affirmatively report a Barrett nomination out of committee, let alone on the Senate floor, as Sarah Binder explained. She does assume that Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins will keep to their word and vote No on the nomination rather than just not voting. She also assumes that she’s dealing with normal people who have normal consciences to not put the colleagues they’ve worked alongside for years at risk of death.

In other words, she didn’t plan on Ron Johnson. Wisconsin’s two-term Senator told a talk radio station in his home state: “If we have to go in and vote, I've already told leadership I’ll go in a moon suit… I would certainly try to find a way, making sure that everybody was safe… where there's a will there's a way.”

Is this completely insane? Absolutely. Are you surprised by it? Then you don’t know Ron Johnson.

Prior to this, Republican officials were actively discussing putting COVID-stricken Senators up in the Senate gallery, far from the floor, and having them shout “Aye!” when their name is called in the roll. That’s what we’re dealing with. If you have 51 Republicans willing to almost literally kill to get Barrett onto the Court, then there isn’t a whole lot anyone can do about it.

But even in that case, there are options. Right now Graham plans to report out the nomination on October 22, which is interesting and perhaps a mistake. My understanding is that Democrats have the ability to and will ask for a one-week delay in the Judiciary Committee vote on Barrett. If Graham waits to report it out until midweek, that one-week delay takes us to October 29, giving Republicans a really brief window to get the nomination done before Election Day. Among the havoc that the minority party can wield are endless War Powers and Congressional Review Act resolutions that take precedence. McConnell might be able to parry those if they have to last a week, but for two days? Maybe not.

The thing is that Graham needs all of his colleagues in person to vote on the nomination to get it out of committee, including Sens. Thom Tillis (R-NC) and Mike Lee (R-UT). They may need until October 22. Maybe not everyone in the caucus is like Ron Johnson.

Democrats need to strategize. They don’t need to tell me or anyone else about it right now, because the element of surprise will be critical. But after October 19 that goes away, and they must show their cards. The clock is ticking.

The release of Dune, the long-awaited effort to make a better movie than David Lynch’s 1984 abomination, was expected this winter but has now been moved to October 2021. The Batman with Robert Pattinson will now release in 2022. This came on the heels of No Time to Die, a James Bond picture, also getting pushed back to next year.

Set aside for the moment that Hollywood doesn’t have a single original idea, and all the films discussed above are remakes or rehashes. I’m wondering where the studios think these films will be screened. The No Time to Die announcement led Regal Cinemas, the second-largest theater chain with 500 outlets and thousands of screens, to indefinitely suspend operations. This has had a bounce-back effect; if there aren’t enough screens to put a film in wide release, studios get wary about getting a return on their investment. There are a couple movies scheduled for November and December, but essentially only one tentpole, Tenet, has been released in any wide fashion to cinemas since the pandemic broke. And that didn’t do very well; just $45 million in five weeks.

Nearly half of all theaters have not reopened. Box office receipts fell last week. There will be no movie industry until there’s a vaccine; people don’t want to sit in crowded, darkened theaters right now. Production delays due to COVID have also threatened the industry, with films potentially unable to make even their delayed release dates. Insurance has become a sticking point, as insurers are loath to issue it to film sets because they don’t want to cover COVID-related shutdowns.

How long can theaters wait for a new movie, while paying rent or other fixed costs? What will be left in the aftermath and will studios find it more cost-effective to just beam movies into homes? Will cinema as a communal experience just end?

Just briefly on this. Donald Trump left Walter Reed hospital yesterday, took his mask off and gasped for air on the second-floor balcony of the White House, and is now hard at work freaking every West Wing staffer the hell out. He’s not confining himself to the residence but is working in a separate office, despite being still contagious and still probably pretty sick—“not out of the woods,” his doctor confirmed yesterday. Trump is also still tweeting at people not to be afraid of coronavirus or let it take over their lives. Meanwhile the White House cannot be bothered to track down everyone at the Barrett nomination super-spreader event and find out their health status.

When news of Trump’s diagnosis broke, I had a fleeting impulse of thinking that now he might take things seriously and get his supporters to take the virus seriously as well. That was as dumb a thought as all the pundits who praise Trump’s “new tone” and “presidential” demeanor when he reads off a teleprompter without stumbling for a few minutes. He’s learned nothing and he never will learn anything.

The White House blocked new guidelines that would have delayed authorization of a vaccine until after the election. (New York Times)
Stimulus paradoxically hurts the big banks, because they have to take on more capital to offset increased deposits. (Wall Street Journal)
CDC finally admits that COVID-19 spreads through the air. (Talking Points Memo)
Kamala Harris and Mike Pence will be separated by plexiglass at tomorrow night’s debate. (Axios)
Alex Pareene on the “wartime sneak attack” nonsense from Marco Rubio. (The New Republic)
The pandemic shows that it’s time to overhaul the agriculture industry. (KCUR Kansas City)
When assessing the jobs situation, we look at unemployment but aren’t factoring in pay cuts. (Bloomberg)
Orthodox Jewish New York is again a hot spot. (New York Times)