Top Lines: 2020 Elections | Tariffs and Trade | US Economy | Immigration and the Border | Protecting US Elections | Patriotism & Optimism

Notes On 2020 – In a recent NDN News, we wrote about how the political landscape here in the US is changing, driven by rising concerns about our safety, a worsening economy, and growing worry about the President’s performance and overall fitness to serve.  Even for Trump the last few weeks have been a shocking combination of incompetence, impulsiveness, and general unwillingness to abide by long-held democratic norms and laws.  And we are seeing this sense of decline and drift really impact the GOP now – more House retirements, the Senate looking more and more competitive, and now 3 real primary challengers to the President.  Problems within the Republican Party are getting really serious now. 

The Vice President continues to lead the Democratic pack, though Warren is showing signs of continued strength and energy.  The next Dem debate is this Thursday night (one night only), and it will tell us a great deal - particularly about whether anyone can challenge Biden or Warren for the top tier.  While the race has been really stable, we doubt it will remain that way in the coming weeks and also doubt that Bernie will have the staying power to remain in the top tier – but have to admit that he has checked his erosion, and seems to be hanging in there.  So like everyone else we wait, and watch. 

The recent cancelling of the remote voting system in Iowa and Nevada, and a sustained misinformation campaign against Beto O’Rourke, has put the issues of cyber security and mis/disinformation back on the 2020 front burner.  Simon weighs in with a new piece calling for the parties to re-invent themselves to meet these new challenges; and a new Politico article details the ongoing debate inside the Democratic Party on how to best approach all this.

Don’t miss our recent work on some of the big demographic and geographic developments we are seeing this cycle – the big swing of under 45 voters, 45% or so of the electorate, towards the Democrats; the extraordinary erosion of the GOP in the heavily Mexican American parts of the US; and the dramatic decline of Trump and the GOP in the Rustbelt.  Along with a President far better known and far more disliked, these big developments of the Trump era are critical to understanding the current national political landscape.  As of now, 2020 is looking a lot more like 2018 than 2016.  Nothing better captures the President’s significant decline and his uphill re-election battle than this chart from Axios using Morning Consult data that shows Trump's approval falling significantly in every battleground state since his election.

Recession Talk Goes Mainstream - Over the past month, a fundamental change has gripped both financial markets and the media - that the highs of the 2018 economy are over and recession is looming on the horizon. This abrupt shift was likely sparked by the first inversion of the 10yr/2yr yield curve since 2009, a move that has preceded every recession since 1980 and is considered a reliable predictor of economic downturns. Furthermore, growth has slowed significantly since last year, averaging just 2.1% over the past three quarters, and new surveys of the US manufacturing sector show it contracting in August for the first time in three years. And this change in economic narrative appears to be spreading to ordinary Americans - consumer sentiment in August suffered its largest monthly drop since 2012 and new Google Trends data shows Americans searching for the word "recession" at the highest rate since 2009. 

As NDN has long argued, a major cause of this rapid economic slowdown is Trump's protectionist trade policy, which has reduced American exporters' access to foreign markets, created significant policy uncertainty leading to a collapse in business investment, and reduced the disposable income of US consumers. Over the past month, however, Trump's behavior regarding the trade war with China has become dramatically more erratic. The President imposed new tariffs on $110 billion in Chinese imports two weeks ago and has announced new and steeper tariffs on the remaining $170 billion, while he also changes his mind on an almost daily basis about whether Chinese President Xi is a "brilliant man" or a "great enemy." This incoherent policy stance now threatens to derail consumer confidence and spending, the one sector of the economy that is keeping the US out of recession. With this in mind, NDN calls upon Congress to finally act to challenge the President's illegal use of executive authority to conduct his trade wars, in particular through the Bicameral Congressional Trade Authority Act sponsored by Rep. Ron Kind. You can find more of NDN's work on trade issues and the economy here. 

GOP Bringing “Moscow Rules” To American Politics, High-Volume Right-Wing Accounts Up To 175 – In a new analysis, Simon finds that the Trump campaign/GOP are already using campaign tactics that feel far more like Russian disinformation than those used in a healthy democracy.  From aggressive use of falsified people to the sharing of altered videos, we are seeing the use of illicit campaign tactics at a scale and pace which should be alarming to all Americans.  Of course these tactics include the use of high-volume, often clearly fake accounts on Twitter.  Our recent effort to build a database of the most influential of these accounts is now up to 175.  Feel free to check it out here, review our broader set of recommendations about how to protect our democracy and discourse from foreign manipulation, and see this new essay from Simon on how the parties need to re-invent themselves to tackle these new challenges.

ICYMI – NDN has released proposals to protect our elections, reform US immigration laws, and counter Trump’s reckless protectionism.  We’ve also proposed creating a new super department we call the Department of Jobs, Skills, and Economic Development to better target our efforts to ensure no one is left behind.  We’ve marveled at the dramatic decline of the GOP’s prospects in the heavily Mexican-American part of the US, and just how much better Democrats have been in managing the US economy in a new age of globalization. We are advising Congress to go slow and be smart in how it reforms the Postal Service – reforms are needed but far more is going right than wrong these days. 

We’ve also written a great deal about Trump and his contempt for democracy and the liberal order America has imagined and built.  We’ve challenged the conventional wisdom to stop downplaying the enormity of the Russian attack on our system, recognize that Trump is more like Maduro than almost any politician in the West, understand the European elections as a direct repudiation of Trumpism/illiberalism, and acknowledge that America First has become an extraordinary governing and political failure.  After repeated mass shootings and the rise of dangerous domestic terrorism, we think the Democrats should make this fall about keeping America and Americans safe. 

Recent NDN Media Citations – You can find us in these recent stories: ABC/FiveThirtyEight, AP (here, here), Atlantic, CNN (article, TV), Financial Times, MSNBC, NBC News, New York Times, Politico, Real Clear Politics, San Antonio Express-News, Slate, Telemundo, Time Magazine, USA Today, Washington Monthly, and the Washington Post (here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here). Simon offers extensive remarks about the 2020 Democratic Primary in this new Ron Brownstein Atlantic piece - we think it is well worth your time. 

You can also catch Simon in extended interviews on politics and disinformation in this new Future State podcast hosted by Dick Clarke, on Democrats and immigration in this Slate podcast hosted by Univision’s Leon Krauze, and in Fernand Amandi’s new Strange Days podcast on why Democrats need to go big and make their indictment of Trump far more than about “obstruction.”

Support Our Far-Sighted Work Today – We know there are many calls on your giving, but please consider donating to NDN today.  Whatever amount - $5, $25, $100 – it all helps us keep the ideas and insights coming. 

Best,

Simon, Chris, and the rest of the NDN team

 

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