Welcome back to the Data for Progress newsletter, your weekly update on our research, blog posts, and memes.
Biden Won the First Debate — Convincingly
The first debate was one of President Trump’s biggest opportunities yet to narrow the race with Joe Biden. Our polling showed that he failed to do that, and voters clearly preferred Biden’s performance.
In a new Vox piece ([link removed]) , Matthew Yglesias shared the results from our survey of 1,544 debate viewers, which we weighted to represent likely voters in November to account for a debate audience that tends to skew Democratic. We found that 52 percent of viewers thought Biden won the debate, compared with just 39 percent for Trump.
Viewers also thought Biden was more “presidential” than Trump by an even wider margin (53-33). Crucially, this includes Independents and Third Party voters, who rated Biden as more presidential by a 20-point margin.
But Biden didn’t just win the debate on character — he won it on policy grounds as well. Voters think he’ll handle race relations, the coronavirus pandemic, the integrity of our elections, and the Supreme Court better than Trump. That said, respondents narrowly preferred Trump’s position on the economy.
Read our own write-up of the full results by clicking here ([link removed]) .
New Senate Polling for ME, IA, AZ, and SC!
Our new Senate polling ([link removed]) is showing really good signs for Democrats. We find:
* In Maine, Democrat Sara Gideon has opened up a five point lead over Republican incumbent Susan Collins (46-41).
* In Iowa, Democrat Theresa Greenfield has a narrow edge over Republican incumbent Joni Ernst (46-45).
* In Arizona, Mark Kelly has a commanding nine-point lead over Republican incumbent Martha McSally (51-42).
* In South Carolina, Democrat Jaime Harrison is inches away from Republican incumbent Lindsay Graham — he’s down by just one point (44-45).
That’s right: even in South Carolina, Democrats have a serious shot at flipping Republican-held Senate seats. Read our writeup on these results for Crooked by clicking here ([link removed]) .
And Democrats are looking really good on the presidential end, too — our latest poll shows ([link removed]) Biden up 51-41 over Trump.
Fuck Gerry(mandering) is Back!!
This November, there are a handful of states where Democrats have an especially big shot at making progress, and a handful of races in those states that are particularly pivotal and competitive. Our Fuck Gerry(mandering) project ([link removed]) , in collaboration with Crooked Media, has identified three particularly crucial states — Florida, North Carolina, and Kansas — and a slate of state legislature candidates in those states who have a HUGE shot at flipping GOP-held seats.
In Florida, this could mean breaking the Republicans’ trifecta in state power. In North Carolina, we can flip both legislative chambers and fix the state’s ridiculously-distorted district boundaries. In Kansas, we have the opportunity to override a GOP veto so that we can have newer, fairer maps in 2021.
Our project helped identify and flip some of Virginia’s closest state legislative races in 2018, and we’re looking to do it again in 2020. If you want to support down-ballot Democratic candidates in this November’s most important races, click here to donate ([link removed]) !
Also Donate to the Green New Deal Slate!
On Thursday, we launched another project ([link removed]) to support down-ballot candidates — this time with a focus on down-ballot candidates that can advance the Green New Deal in state legislatures and local government.
* State senate candidates in Minnesota who are fighting for 100 percent clean energy legislation and against the proposed Line 3 pipeline.
* Public service commission candidates in Montana who will hold NorthWestern Energy accountable.
* A county commissioner in New Mexico who, if she wins, would be able to ban fracking in one of the most significant counties in the state.
These are key races for building the environmental movement at the state and local level. Donate to the Green New Deal Slate by clicking here ([link removed]) !
* Voters Support Self-Determination for U.S. Territories: If Puerto Rico voted for either statehood or independence in a referendum, would voters want Congress to honor that decision, or would they prefer that they block its attempt to become a state or independent nation? Our newest memo ([link removed]) , released yesterday, shows that 59 percent of Americans would support Puerto Rico’s right to self-determination, while just 21 percent oppose.
* Voters Support Accountability for Predatory Colleges and Executives: In collaboration with Student Defense, we released new polling ([link removed]) showing widespread support for the progressive higher education agenda, including holding execs of fraudulent for-profit colleges liable (78-13), requiring universities to treat a student’s gender identity as their sex (58-27), and ensuring that students who’ve graduated from for-profit colleges earn enough to pay back their loans (75-12).
* Jamaal Bowman on the DFP Blog — If We Want Racial Justice, We Have to Take on Amazon: In a recent survey, we asked voters whether they think Amazon employees often work in unsafe conditions and should receive hazard pay. Sixty-two percent agreed, while just 22 percent said that Amazon employees work in safe conditions and don’t need hazard pay.
Read Jamaal Bowman’s full write-up of the results here ([link removed]) .
From The Blog
We Must Utilize Educational Programming for Fossil Fuel Workers in the Just Transition ([link removed])
Biden Emerges From the First Presidential Debate a Clear Winner ([link removed])
The Rent is Too High and Here’s What We Can Do About It ([link removed])
Green New Deal Slate ([link removed])
If We Want Racial Justice, We Have to Take on Amazon ([link removed])
Joe Biden Maintains a Commanding Lead in the Presidential Race ([link removed])
Memo: Voters Support Accountability for Predatory Colleges and Executives, Support Tackling Student Debt Issues ([link removed])
Memo: Sexual Assault Victims Want Services Tailored to Their Needs ([link removed])
Memo: New Yorkers Support Raising Taxes on the Rich and Inclusive Relief Efforts ([link removed])
Memo: How to Demilitarize the Police ([link removed])
Memo: Voters Support Self-Determination ([link removed])
Exclusive poll: Biden won the debate convincingly ([link removed]) @Vox
Republicans Enabled Trump; Now the Voters Are Coming ([link removed]) @Crooked
The Soil Revolution That Could Save Farming And The Climate ([link removed]) @Huffington Post
Trump's Plan to End Tax That Funds Social Security Is Extremely Unpopular, Even Among Republicans ([link removed]) @Newsweek
69 percent of Mainers back wealth tax in new poll ([link removed]) @Maine Beacon
Data. For Progress! ([link removed]) @Democratically: 2020
New Poll Shows Overwhelming Public Support for Progressive Higher Education Agenda ([link removed]) @Student Defense
New Poll Shows Substantial, Bipartisan Support For Student Loan Forgiveness And Other Relief For Borrowers ([link removed]) @Forbes
As Polls Shows Climate Action Winning Issue, Green Campaigners Mobilize for Democrats in Key Senate and House Races ([link removed]) @Common Dreams
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