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Good morning!
Read on for the top stories in state and local politics this week. For a complete review of the week, and preview of the week ahead, please click the button below and launch the full edition.
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Mississippi becomes first to lift statewide mask mandate
- Gov. Tate Reeves (R) allowed the statewide public mask mandate to expire on Sept. 30, making Mississippi the first state to lift a face covering requirement. Individuals still have to wear masks at schools and at businesses the state defines as close-contact (like barbershops and salons).
- Thirty-three states have statewide orders requiring individuals to wear masks in indoor or outdoor public spaces. All 24 states with a Democratic governor have statewide mask orders, while nine out of 26 Republican states require face coverings.
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Texas governor issues order limiting number of absentee/mail-in ballot return locations
- Gov. Greg Abbott (R) issued a proclamation limiting the number of return locations for absentee/mail-in ballots to one per county. Abbott also directed county clerks to allow poll watchers to observe activity at return locations.
- At least three additional states modified their election procedures this week:
- Alabama: On Sept. 30, Judge Abdul Kallon of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Alabama issued a ruling that made a number of modifications to Alabama's voting laws, including waiving the absentee/mail-in ballot witness/notary requirement for voters with underlying medical conditions.
- Indiana: On Sept. 29, Judge Sarah Barker of the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Indiana issued an order extending the postmark and receipt deadline for absentee/mail-in ballots in Indiana to Nov. 3 and Nov. 13, respectively.
- Texas: On Sept. 30, a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit blocked a lower court's order that had reinstated Texas' straight-ticket ballot device, pending further proceedings.
- Wisconsin: On Sept. 29, a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit upheld a district court decision extending voter registration and absentee/mail-in ballot return deadlines in Wisconsin.
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Ballotpedia identifies 16 vulnerable trifectas in 2020
- Sixteen state trifectas are vulnerable in 2020, according to Ballotpedia’s trifecta vulnerability rating system. Both major parties will be defending eight trifectas.
- A state government trifecta occurs when one party holds the governorship and majorities in both chambers of the state legislature. There are currently 21 Republican trifectas and 15 Democratic trifectas. The remaining 14 states have divided governments.
- Ballotpedia calculates the chances of trifectas breaking and forming by assessing the chances of each individual component changing control. We assess gubernatorial races with ratings from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball. We assess state legislatures according to the absolute number of seats up for election and the proportion of seats that would need to flip for partisan control to change. Both chambers in a state's legislature are evaluated individually.
- Ballotpedia classifies the Democratic trifectas in five states as moderately vulnerable—Colorado, Connecticut, Maine, Nevada, and Oregon. Three Democratic trifectas—Delaware, Illinois, and New Mexico—are considered somewhat vulnerable.
- The Republican trifecta in Florida is the only trifecta Ballotpedia rated as highly vulnerable this year. Four Republican trifectas—in Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, and West Virginia are classified as moderately vulnerable. The Republican trifectas in Ohio, South Carolina, and Texas are somewhat vulnerable.
- Ballotpedia also assessed the chances of new trifectas forming in states that are currently under divided government. States that qualified as a possible Democratic trifecta pickup according to our methodology are Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, while Republicans have pickup chances in Alaska and New Hampshire. In Montana and North Carolina, both parties qualify for a pickup opportunity.
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North Carolina moves to next phase of reopening, eases certain business restrictions
- North Carolina advanced to Phase 3 of reopening on Oct. 2. Phase 3 eases several restrictions on businesses, including allowing bars to provide outdoor service at 30% capacity, or up to 100 guests, whichever is fewer. Movie theaters can also reopen at 30% capacity or 100 guests. Large outdoor venues can operate at 7% capacity. Some restrictions, such as mandatory face coverings in public, remain in place.
- North Carolina started reopening on May 8. The state entered Phase 2 on May 22 and moved to Phase 2.5 on Sept. 4.
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New York City public schools reopen for all grades
- Public middle and high schools in New York City reopened for in-person instruction on Oct. 1. Elementary schools reopened Sept. 29. Families can still choose to enroll in fully remote classes.
- In March and April, 48 states canceled in-person instruction for the remainder of the 2019-2020 academic year. Those states accounted for 99.4% of the nation's 50.6 million public school students. Montana and Wyoming did not require cancellation of in-person instruction for the year. Montana schools were allowed to reopen on May 7, and Wyoming schools were allowed to reopen on May 15.
- The current status of school reopenings is as follows: Washington, D.C., has a district-ordered school closure, five states have a state-ordered regional school closure, two states are open for hybrid or remote instruction only, four states have state-ordered in-person instruction, and 39 states have reopenings that vary by school or district.
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Hawaii commission announces four finalists for state supreme court vacancy
- Hawaii’s judicial selection commission published its list of four nominees for a state supreme court vacancy. The nominees are Judge Todd Eddins, David Forman, Judge Darolyn Lendio Heim, and Benjamin Lowenthal. Gov. David Ige (D) will appoint one of the four to the state supreme court with consent from the state Senate. Ige has 30 days to select his nominee after receiving the list.
- The vacancy occurred when Justice Richard W. Pollack reached the mandatory retirement age of 70 years and retired on June 30. Pollack joined the court in 2012. His replacement will be the first nomination Gov. Ige makes to the five-member state supreme court. The most recent appointment to the court was made in 2014 by Ige’s predecessor, Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D).
- In Hawaii, state supreme court justices are chosen through the assisted appointment method. Under this appointment method, Hawaii’s judicial selection committee recommends four to six potential nominees to the governor, who chooses a nominee from the list. The governor’s nominee requires confirmation from the Hawaii State Senate. Justices serve 10-year terms. If they wish to serve additional terms, they must stand for retention before the state judicial nominating commission.
- To date, 21 state supreme court seats have been vacated in 2020, 10 vacancies have been filled, and 11 remain vacant.
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Share of state legislative incumbents defeated in contested primaries grows for third even-year cycle in a row
- In the 44 states that are holding state legislative elections this year, primary challengers defeated 153 incumbents—61 Democrats and 93 Republicans.
- Overall, 15.2% of the 1,016 major-party incumbents who faced primary challengers in 2020 lost, the third consecutive increase compared to 2018 (13.8%) and 2016 (12.3%). The loss rate also exceeds that of 13.0% in 2014.
- For Republicans, challengers defeated incumbents in 18% of contested primaries, the highest rate since at least 2014. Republican incumbents were more likely to be defeated in states with divided governments than in states with trifectas.
- For Democrats, challengers defeated 12% of incumbents in contested primaries, a decrease from 14% in 2018. The highest loss rate was in states with Democratic trifectas. The lowest was in those with Republican trifectas.
- Overall, the loss rate for incumbents in states with divided governments exceeded the national average altogether and by party.
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Two Republicans advance to runoff in Texas State Senate District 30 special election
- Six candidates ran in the Texas State Senate District 30 special election on Sept. 29. Shelley Luther (R) and Drew Springer (R) were the top-two finishers, receiving 31.7% and 31.8% of the vote, respectively. They were followed by Jacob Minter (D), who garnered 21.1%. No other candidate received over 10% of the vote.
- Since no candidate received at least 50% of the vote, Shelley and Luther will advance to a runoff. Gov. Greg Abbott (R) has not yet scheduled the runoff election. The Texas State Legislature’s next session begins on January 12, 2020.
- The winner will replace Pat Fallon (R) for the remainder of his term, expiring in 2023. Fallon submitted his letter of resignation on August 22, effective Jan. 4, after he was nominated to run in the general election for Texas' 4th Congressional District.
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Connecticut, New Jersey, New York update list of states affected by quarantine order
- Govs. Ned Lamont (D-Conn.), Phil Murphy (D-N.J.), and Andrew Cuomo (D-N.Y.) announced that Colorado had been added to the tristate quarantine list, while Arizona and Virginia had been removed. Travelers from states on the list must quarantine for 14 days upon entering Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York.
- Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York created the joint list on June 24. To date, the list includes 34 states and territories.
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Trujillo resigns from New Mexico House of Representatives
- Rep. Jim Trujillo (D) resigned from the District 45 seat in the New Mexico House of Representatives, citing health and family reasons. Trujillo was first appointed to the seat in 2003 to fill a vacancy created by the resignation of Patsy Trujillo, to whom he is not related.
- The Santa Fe County Commission will appoint Trujillo’s successor, who will serve until Trujillo’s term was set to end in January 2021. Linda Serrato (D) and Helen Milenski (L) are running for the District 45 seat in the Nov. 3 general election. In 2018, Trujillo was unopposed for reelection to the seat.
- All 70 seats in the New Mexico House of Representatives are up for election this year. Ballotpedia has identified this chamber as one of 22 state legislative battleground chambers for the 2020 cycle. With Trujillo’s resignation, the current partisan breakdown of the chamber is 45 Democrats, 24 Republicans, and one vacancy. Republicans need to win 12 more seats, or 17% of the total seats, to gain a majority in the House. Democrats will retain control of the New Mexico State House if they lose fewer than 12 net seats. New Mexico is currently one of 15 states with a Democratic trifecta.
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Ballot measures update
- Unless courts remove other measures from the ballot, the 2020 statewide measures are finalized. Voters in 32 states will decide 120 statewide ballot measures on Nov. 3.
- Notable topics addressed by Nov. 3 measures include:
- Elections policy: Eighteen measures in 14 states concern election policy, including campaign finance, election dates, election systems, redistricting, suffrage, and term limits.
- Taxes: Voters in 12 states will vote on 19 ballot measures addressing tax-related policies.
- Marijuana and drug policy: Four states will vote on recreational marijuana legalization initiatives, and two states will vote on medical marijuana initiatives. Oregon could also become the first state to establish a program for legal psilocybin mushroom use and decriminalize all drugs if voters approve Measure 109 and Measure 110.
- Including the eight pre-November election dates, a total of 128 statewide ballot measures were certified for the 2020 ballot in 34 states.
- Forty-three of the certified measures are citizen-initiated measures. Eighty are legislative referrals. One is an automatic constitutional revision commission question. Four are advisory measures in Washington.
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State legislative special elections
- Fifty-nine state legislative special elections have been scheduled in 27 states so far this year, with 37 seats having taken place already. Heading into those races, Democrats had previously controlled 14 of the seats, while Republicans previously controlled 23. One seat flipped from Democratic control to Republican control, and six seats flipped from Republican control to Democratic control.
- In special elections between 2011 and 2019, one party (either Republicans or Democrats) saw an average net gain of four seats nationally each year.
- An average of 56 seats were filled through special elections in each of the past five even years (2010: 30, 2012: 46, 2014: 40, 2016: 66, 2018: 99).
- An average of 88 seats were filled through special elections in each of the past five odd years (2011: 94, 2013: 84, 2015: 88, 2017: 98, 2019: 77).
- Upcoming special elections include:
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States in session
Eight states—Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Vermont—are in regular session.
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The Lucy Burns Institute, publisher of Ballotpedia, is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. All donations are tax deductible to the extent of the law. Donations to the Lucy Burns Institute or Ballotpedia do not support any candidates or campaigns.
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