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Unsanitized: The COVID-19 Report for Oct. 2, 2020

Trump's Got It

Thoughts on an extraordinary October surprise

 

News that Donald Trump has contracted the coronavirus hits the screens
at the railway station in Seoul, South Korea. (Lee Jin-man/AP Photo)

First Response

**** 45,694 Americans tested positive
for the coronavirus yesterday, but for
the moment we're only going to talk about two, and their names are
Donald and Melania Trump. Maybe three, because they appear to have
contracted it from Hope Hicks, who was around the first couple as they
traveled to Cleveland for Tuesday's debate and Minnesota for a
campaign rally. She came back in quarantine on Air Force One after
experiencing mild symptoms.

To get one thing out of the way: I hope the Trumps don't die from
coronavirus. It's a horrible disease and I wish that none of the 7.2
million Americans ever had the misfortune of catching it.

That said, there is nobody on this Earth who has invited infection more
than Donald Trump. He has held rallies indoors without masks, and even
the outdoor rallies have people packed in tight. He's defied public
health restrictions with these events. He's rarely used a mask himself
and has raised doubts about their efficacy. He has gone out of his way
to downplay the seriousness of the virus, demanded that states get out
of lockdown within weeks of the first wave in March, cheered on armed
groups at state capitols mounting to "liberate" their states, and
stumped for schools to reopen. Several people in his orbit contracted
the virus and he continued these actions. After he learned about Hope
Hicks' positive test, he went out to a fundraiser

in New Jersey and gave a speech in front of dozens of people.

He's adopted just about every behavior you would adopt if you were
deliberately attempting to spread the virus, short of putting COVID
smelling salts under his nose. He did it with arrogance and an extreme
lack of compassion for the dead and the dying. He laughed at everyone
taking precautions, and I'm not going to tone police anyone laughing
at him.

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**** But a lot of real-world consequences grow from
this incident. First of all, Trump could be as hard a man to contact
trace as any individual in the world. West Wing personnel, campaign
staff, family, traveling press, rally participants, thousands of people
are at risk. We don't know when he would have become contagious, or
when Hicks was, or where. Trump spent Tuesday night shouting in an
indoor hall about six feet away from his 78-year-old opponent. (For the
record, everyone in the hall for the debate was tested, and tested
negative. That's not foolproof, of course.)

The point is that, in his indeterminate time with the virus in public,
Trump had close contact with thousands of people. That could include Amy
Coney Barrett, his Supreme Court nominee, who is subsequently scheduled
to meet with nearly every Senate Republican. (Already there's talk
from liberals about postponing the hearings.) It includes pretty much
the entire top level of the executive branch. And so on. Does everyone
quarantine? Can the executive branch, this executive branch, work from
home as well as, well, your office? Will we even know if this becomes a
super-spreader event?

Trump is off the campaign trail for a couple weeks and another in-person
debate is unlikely. (putting the would-be "leaders of the free
world" on Zoom, to be muted by the moderator on a whim, would be
fitting comeuppance, especially after Tuesday.) All we know is the
positive test; whether there will be any transparency as to his actual
medical condition is anyone's guess, though I'd guess not. UK Prime
Minister Boris Johnson's near-death experience was marked by habitual
obfuscation from Downing Street spokespeople.

It's a little difficult to know how this plays out politically, but
not much. Yes Ronald Reagan was hailed as a hero sitting in a hospital
bed after being shot. But this is a metaphor for the inattention and
failure to protect that has marked the last seven months of the Trump
presidency. There's nothing that more poignantly reflects the
irresponsibility. Two weeks ago (!), Trump was thrilled to have a chance
with Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death to change the subject away from the
coronavirus. That's impossible now.

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If Trump gets sick, perhaps very sick (he is in a higher-risk category,
though he does have an "indestructible against all odds and practice
of good nutrition" quality), what exactly happens? Under the 25th
Amendment he could transfer power to Mike Pence until he recovers, and
then take it back. If he's too incapacitated to serve, or worse,
that's a different matter. Election law expert Rick Hasen points out
that there's no good protocol
for replacing a nominee on the presidential ballot, and especially not
this close to an election. An already chaotic election would simply
devolve if a replacement was chosen that couldn't get on the ballot
and may or may not be counted in write-in votes.

Again, I think that's remote. What's clear is that Trump will have
the best medical care, the best doctors, the best living conditions. He
won't have to worry about losing a paycheck while he's sick, or
managing the isolation of quarantine. In other words, none of the
hardships facing millions of Americans who have been infected will
befall him.

Maybe there's one silver lining here. The one person in the world got
the virus who could get through to the more intransigent of our
citizens, the ones blowing off the pandemic as no big deal, calling
masks the destruction of freedom. Trump is the only one who could tell
them, "this is serious and you need to take it seriously," and have
that be taken to heart. Now this would involve Trump learning from
experience and wanting to help others, so I'm not holding my breath.
But maybe, this is a hinge point that gets this country much more
serious about the virus.

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Today I Learned

* Woodrow Wilson, it is suspected, caught influenza at the Paris peace
talks in 1918. He definitely suffered a stroke
101 years
ago to the day as Trump's contraction of COVID. (Michael Beschloss on
Twitter.)

* There's a jobs report this morning
but who cares nothing
matters. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

* Austan Goolsbee figured out big companies are getting bigger

in the pandemic. (New York Times)

* Moody's downgraded New York City and State

on their debt, and that was going to be Unsanitized's main story
before... this. (Bond Buyer)

* 20,000 Amazon employees have tested positive
.
(CNN)

* Personal income dropping and is now even on trendline

from before the virus, despite all that federal support. (Mother Jones)

* Unpaid utility bills piling up
.
(Washington Post)

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