It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy. 

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WHAT WE'RE WATCHING FOR IN THE DEBATE
By NewsHour Politics Team

In the blur that has been 2020, at last we have a day that may have some specific meaning: the first presidential debate of the general election. President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden will meet on the campus of Case Western Reserve University and the Cleveland Clinic in Cleveland.

Total debate time: 90 minutes.

Topics: Six. Each will get roughly 15 minutes. They are: "The Trump and Biden Records," "The Supreme Court," "Covid-19," "The Economy," "Race and Violence in our Cities" and "The Integrity of the Election."

Format: Each section will begin with a question, with each candidate having two minutes for initial answers and then more free-flowing time to discuss.

As political and policy nerds, we are here for this. And we hope you will join us. We’re offering a few ways to watch ([link removed]) with us:
* Our special coverage begins with the regular NewsHour at 6 p.m. EDT, followed by an hour of digital programming about the candidates and the issues.
* At 8 p.m. EDT, senior political reporter Daniel Bush will host a digital pre-show featuring our correspondents sharing the latest on the candidates and guests speaking to some of the key issues in this race: the ongoing protests over police violence and racial injustice, and the fight over filling the Supreme Court vacancy.
* At 11 p.m., Amna Nawaz will host a conversation with voters, getting their reactions to the debate and what issues matter most to them in the final weeks of the election.
* Twitter: Our team will be live-tweeting throughout the debate providing context, insights and analysis. Here is a list of people to follow. ([link removed])

As a preview, we thought we’d try something different this week. We asked the politics team and correspondents to write up what they each will be watching for tonight.

Judy Woodruff, @JudyWoodruff ([link removed])
Managing editor and anchor of NewsHour

Answering the questions. After covering many presidential debates over the years, I’ll be watching and listening for something pretty simple: do these two men answer the questions? How forthright are they and how much do they try to change the subject? We know each will each come with a plan for points he wants to make; how will they balance their own mission with the mission of the moderator? How will they speak about the pandemic, this fraught moment in American history? Will they acknowledge any mistakes they’ve ever made? How will they handle criticism?

It’s only 90 minutes in the thousands of hours we’ve watched these men; two more debates await after this one. But every moment, I’ll be riveted.


Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews ([link removed])
Correspondent

Body language and old habits. This debate will be historic for a swirl of reasons: the first in a pandemic, the first of this high-stakes election and the first meeting between these two particular men who are from the same era but from incredibly different life experiences.

But I’ll be watching for something simple - body language, and which of these two men seems to get more under the other’s skin. Who is more composed during the encounter? I believe voters are driven by those kinds of intangibles in recent cycles. President Trump thrives on conflict, but also gets rattled when confronted directly, especially without a supportive audience in front of him. Biden, who has spoken in relatively empty rooms, like the U.S. Senate, for many more decades, has other challenges. He must navigate his instinct to be polite, including apologizing when he goes too long, with his repeated tendency in primary debates to react to attack with a disproportionate tone.

One other issue I’ll be watching: Does Trump give vague, uninspired and overly defensive answers when confronted with facts that don’t support him? And does Biden fall back on his decades-long tendency to rattle off so many numbers and facts that voters could get lost?

Finally, are there any moments that change the perception of either man?


Yamiche Alcindor, @Yamiche ([link removed])
Correspondent

Trump’s record on trial. With more than 200,000 Americans dead from the coronavirus and more than 7 million Americans infected over the last few months, I will be watching how President Trump defends and explains his decision to downplay the coronavirus and how former Vice President Joe Biden explains what he would have done differently in detail. President Trump admitted to Bob Woodward on March 19 that he deliberately minimized the danger of the virus and said he knew "plenty of young people" were impacted by the virus. “I wanted to always play it down,” the president said to Woodward. “I still like playing it down, because I don’t want to create a panic." How will President Trump defend those statements? How will Biden outline what he could do to prevent more Americans from dying if elected?

I'll also be watching how the president defends his assertions that the election will be "rigged" if he doesn't win and whether he will double down on his refusal to commit to a peaceful transfer of power. A number of Republicans — including Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell — have said publicly that the U.S. must have a peaceful transfer of power and some close to the president have urged him to stop casting doubt on mail-in voting because many Republicans vote by mail. Will Trump listen to these requests from conservatives and not use the platform to further cast doubt on the election's credibility?

I am also interested in the fifth debate topic described as "race and violence in our cities." What does that pertain to and what kind of violence will be discussed? Many voters — including many black voters — want to see a robust discussion about police violence and police brutality and the fact that Black people are some two and a half to three times more likely to be killed by the police than White people in this country. Will Biden and Trump talk about systemic racism? Will Trump acknowledge systemic racism in the criminal justice system, or will he pivot to talking about Historically Black Colleges and Universities and Opportunity Zones as he has in the past? How will Biden talk about the crime bill and policing in 2020? And if the topic becomes about racism and pockets of violence amid peaceful protests, what will that look like?

Emily Knapp, @emilyroseknapp ([link removed])
Senior editor, digital politics

The economy gets personal. Trump’s national poll numbers have not been good. Consistently, more Americans trust Biden to handle the pandemic, on race relations, climate change, and a number of other issues. Trump’s approval ratings have hovered around 40 percent and his disapproval ratings are higher. Many voters who aren’t particularly enthused by the prospect of Biden as president are still planning to vote for him — that’s how deeply unpopular this president is with large swaths of the country. But one area where the president seems to excel, at least in the public’s perception, is the economy.

We know one of tonight’s six segments will focus on the economy. Trump has touted his economic record throughout his presidency. He’s continued to do so despite a recession and huge jobs losses in the last six months. And voters, even those turned off by Trump’s personality, rhetoric and stance on other issues, still seem to think the businessman president is the better candidate to lead the economy. ([link removed]) But news of his personal financial failures, enumerated in the New York Times’ explosive reporting ([link removed]) over the weekend, might make some of those supporters stop and think. Two of the biggest takeaways from the 10,000-word article are that Trump is buried under a mountain of personal debt, and many of his businesses are operating at a loss.

So I’ll be watching to see if Trump gets questions about the report and his personal finances, from moderator Chris Wallace but also his competitor, who has just been handed a golden pickaxe to chip away at the foundation of his opponent’s appeal. Will Biden take the opportunity? Will he land his blows? Trump will undoubtedly continue to deny the report and any criticism of his person or his presidency, and some people will buy it because the public trust in news media is pretty low ([link removed]) . But if Biden is able to connect the reporting about Trump’s personal finances with his handling of the economy in a salient way, he could reframe the election for the 20 percent of Americans ([link removed]) — and a third of Republicans — who rank the economy as their No. 1 issue.

Daniel Bush, @danielbush ([link removed])
Senior political reporter

Dynamics on stage. Trump and Biden’s interactions on a personal level will be fascinating to watch. Attacking each other from afar in speeches and campaign ads is easier than doing so from across the debate stage, with tens of millions of Americans watching.

The energy the candidates bring to the debate will also be critical. Trump often claims that Biden doesn't have the stamina to run for or be president. On Tuesday, Biden will have a chance to prove his sharpness, and whether he has a better command of the issues than Trump. Those issues — from the Supreme Court and the pandemic to the economy and race — will also be front and center Tuesday. But Trump and Biden's dynamic on stage will set the tone for the first debate, and for the rest to follow.

Matt Loffman, @mattloff ([link removed])
Politics producer

Two candidates, together at last. It is the first debate between these two men, but in many ways, the debate itself will feel the same as in years past despite the coronavirus pandemic that has kept public candidate appearances limited and had many states imposing some level of lockdowns for months. Audiences in general election debates are always told to keep silent so the lack of a large crowd will likely go unnoticed this time.

On stage, the two people who have been locked in a heated off-stage debate for months will be making the case that they are best able to lead for the next four years. Trump, who famously did little formal preparation for the debates in 2016, seems to be following a similar strategy this time by choosing to hold rallies in the days leading up to Tuesday. Biden, however, is doing more traditional debate prep and has taken several days off the campaign trail. We’ll be talking to voters throughout the night trying to see if the president’s unconventional approach still resonates even now that he’s really the ultimate insider still running as an outsider. Biden will be making the case, as he has his entire campaign, that a return to traditional and steady leadership is best. Does Trump, even with little traditional debate prep, still have a command of the issues? Or does Biden’s preparation make him seem too rehearsed and unrelatable to voters still trying to make a decision?

Kate Grumke, @KGrumke ([link removed])
Politics producer

Climate change (or the absence of it). I’ll be watching to see how climate change is addressed in this debate. In the Democratic primary debates, despite real differences in policy approaches from the candidates, at least one debate didn’t feature any questions about climate and energy issues. The candidates themselves often had to bring up the issue in answers to other questions. In this debate, we already know none of the six debate segments will focus on climate change, which has sparked backlash from activists and Senate Democrats ([link removed]) . I think it’s likely former Vice President Joe Biden will mention the issue in some way, but I’m curious to see if that will be a detailed answer to a question or a footnote on Biden’s long list of grievances with the Trump administration. I’m also watching to see if President Trump will engage with the issue. In the 2016 general election debates, the
party’s nominees were not asked a single question about climate change. In all three debates, about five and a half minutes were spent on the issue, largely thanks to Hillary Clinton bringing it up herself, according to Grist ([link removed]) .

Climate change is now the top issue for Democratic voters, and the third most important issue for all likely voters, according to our latest PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll ([link removed]) . It’s also an interesting topic for debate, because the candidates have such stark differences in policy. If not tonight, I’m hoping a future debate will deliberately devote more time to climate and energy.

Nick Schifrin, @nickschifrin ([link removed])
Correspondent

Threats from abroad. We don’t expect foreign policy to play a prominent role in the debate, but I’ll be watching for a possible discussion of the intelligence community’s assessment that Russia continues trying to influence the U.S. election, and China and Iran continue their espionage. Intelligence officials say pro-Kremlin actors want to denigrate former Vice President Biden and support President Trump. When asked about Russian interference, President Trump tends to pivot by focusing on the Chinese threat, which most analysts believe is more long-term, “traditional” espionage, compared to Russia’s trying to put their thumb on the scale this November. I’ll be watching for how Biden handles that pivot, and how President Trump tries to paint Biden soft on Beijing.

Meredith Lee, @meredithllee ([link removed])
White House reporter and producer

Supreme Court visions. The Supreme Court fight will be a major topic tonight, as Republicans are set to push through Trump’s new SCOTUS pick before the election. Despite calls from progressives, Biden has refused to say whether he would support ending the filibuster to add additional seats to the Supreme Court, if Senate Republicans confirm a Supreme Court nominee in an election year and Democrats ultimately win the White House and Senate. Biden, who served in the Senate for 36 years, has opposed ending the filibuster. I’ll be watching for how Biden responds to President Trump’s attacks that try to paint Biden as someone who would cave to pressure from the left to pack the Court and appoint far-left, radical justices. Trump’s advisers believe attacking Biden on the Supreme Court will alienate moderate voters, especially moderate Republicans and independents, who are considering voting for Biden. They are also happy to keep the focus on the court, rather than the coronavirus that’s claimed
more than 200,000 American lives.

William Brangham, @WmBrangham ([link removed])
Correspondent

Pandemic, mail-in voting and climate change. The first thing I'll be watching for is the back and forth about the pandemic. The U.S. has lost more than 200,000 lives, and the virus is spreading again quickly across the Midwest and West. According to Bob Woodward's book, “Rage,” President Trump believes "nothing more could have been done" to stop the spread of this novel coronavirus, a position rejected by most public health experts. Biden has said he'd take a markedly different approach, but what exactly would he do differently? Biden has said he'd listen to many of the same scientific advisors who are counseling the president today.

Secondly, I'm interested to see how much Biden pushes President Trump about his comments about the election itself. As we've reported many times, President Trump is waging a largely baseless campaign against mail-in voting, and has alleged that anything other than a Trump victory will be de facto evidence of a rigged process. Will the president continue those accusations, and how will Biden respond?

While climate change isn't one of the topics for this debate, we've already seen a series of hurricanes hit the U.S. this season, and large parts of the West are on fire, so I hope the candidates eventually will be asked about the role climate change plays in these disasters and what, if anything, they'd do about it.

Amna Nawaz, @IAmAmnaNawaz ([link removed])
Correspondent

What do voters think? I’ll be watching the debates with a virtual gathering of voters from across the country, including from some key battleground states. Most tell us they’re already leaning strongly towards one candidate or the other, but with news moving so quickly – and new headlines of consequence to consider every week – they’re all watching the debates to see what the nominees have to say. So what I’m most interested in learning is how the news and the candidates’ messages resonate with these voters. If they’re worried about the economy, does one candidate’s plan make them feel better than the other’s? If the pandemic has upended their life, do they trust Vice President Biden or President Trump to get things back on track? Are they worried about their vote being counted, or the president respecting election results? And did a Supreme Court vacancy change how any one of them view this election? Leading up to one of the most consequential elections in modern history, I’ll be track
ing the voices of American voters to see how the candidates’ debate performances and the surrounding swirl of headlines are informing and influencing them, as they get ready to cast their ballots.

Candice Norwood, @cjnorwoodwrites ([link removed])
Political reporter

Protests, policing and race. Tuesday's debate will be an opportunity for Trump and Biden to go head to head on racial inequality and police brutality. This year the country has been rocked by the deaths of George Floyd, Breonna Taylor and other Black people at the hands of police.

Amid the nationwide protests, we've seen two very different responses from the campaigns. Trump has given full-throated support for law enforcement, downplayed police violence and condemned protesters for violence and looting that have taken place in cities like Minneapolis, Chicago and New York City. He has pointed toward the Democratic leadership in these cities as a foreshadowing of what a Biden presidency might look like.

Biden has stated that he believes systemic racism is a problem in law enforcement and has called for police reform, though he has stopped short of voicing support for efforts to defund police departments. Biden maintains overwhelming support among Black voters, but has his own history of making recent problematic remarks and promoting tough on crime legislation.

One thing to watch is whether Trump, when sharing a stage with Biden, will express any sympathy for people of color or acknowledgement of racism they face. It will also be interesting to see whether Biden makes a strong appeal to activists and progressives, especially given that many of them are skeptical of Biden's motives.

John Yang, @johnyangtv ([link removed])
Correspondent

Does prep pay off? Although the stakes may be higher for President Trump, who is looking for something that will reverse the overall dynamics of the race, I'm actually going to be watching Joe Biden more carefully. He's taken the more traditional approach to debate prep, but he's also been largely off the campaign trail for quite a while because of the pandemic. The president, on the other hand, has held a series of in-person rallies around the country where he’s fed off the energy of the crowd and tested lines of attack against Biden. Will Biden be rusty and out of practice? Will he be able to avoid moments of exaggeration about his record and experiences? And how will he deal with what's likely to be 90 minutes of Trump attacks without losing his temper?

DEBATE READING LIST: FIVE NEWSHOUR STORIES TO PREP FOR THE BIG NIGHT
By Ian Couzens, @iancouzenz ([link removed])
Politics production assistant

In honor tonight’s debate, we’re doing something a little different here. Instead of five stories you might have missed, we’re giving you five NewsHour stories that will offer context for the topics candidates will be asked about in the debate.

Will Supreme Court fight galvanize voters in the Midwest? ([link removed]) -- Sept 23. Filling a vacant Supreme Court seat raises the importance of each Senate race, as voters are reminded that they are voting not just for people who will represent them in Congress for the next six years, but are by proxy choosing the justices who will serve them for a generation. Why it matters: Voters are being motivated by specter of a Supreme Court vacancy and it has given some campaigns in middle America new importance.

Biden leads Trump by double digits, but more Americans trust Trump on economy despite historic recession ([link removed]) -- Sept 18. The president has continued touting the low unemployment numbers and record-high stock indexes of the pre-pandemic economy as he makes his bid for a second term, and it’s working, as more Americans say they think Trump is an effective leader on the economy than Biden. Why it matters: In a recent PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll — taken before the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg -- 20 percent of voters indicated that the economy is the most important issue for them this election cycle, which could be good news for Trump, though Biden has more voter trust on Americans’ other top issues: the coronavirus, climate change, health care and race relations..

Why Trump’s statements on mail-in ballots, election results are ‘extremely problematic’ ([link removed]) -- Sept 24. Trump is taking his history of raising questions about the election results a step further by suggesting that if he loses, it will be because the election was rigged, and he may not accept the results. Why it matters: Trump’s attacks on the vote-by-mail process as rife with fraud are baseless — the amount of problematic voting is so small that it is highly unlikely to have any no impact on the election results. The American system relies on citizens’ trust in the election process, and that could be undermined by the president’s attacks and the suggestion that the election could ultimately be decided not at the polls but by a court decision.

Western wildfires highlight divergent stances of Trump, Biden on climate change ([link removed]) -- Sept 14. While Joe Biden has discussed the need to address climate change amid raging wildfires out West, President Donald Trump blamed poor forest management as the culprit for the fires. Why it matters: Climate change is a scientific fact that has been linked to extreme weather events such as the record fires decimating millions of acres of land this year and displacing hundreds of thousands of residents in California, Oregon and Washington, but political divisions on the issue of climate change and the root causes of extreme weather events are impacting how, and how effectively, the government responds to both.

In Michigan, political divides create two pandemic realities ([link removed]) -- Aug 6. How people perceive the pandemic, and the health safety measures they take, are informed as much by their personal political persuasions as by science and public health officials. Why it matters: When Americans ignore social-distancing and mask-wearing guidelines, it puts them and others at increased risk of contracting COVID-19 and makes it more difficult for leaders and public health officials to control the virus’ spread.

#POLITICSTRIVIA
By Kate Grumke, @KGrumke ([link removed])
Politics producer

This week’s trivia is inspired by tonight’s presidential debate. Once again, this year’s third party candidates will not have a spot on the debate stage. The last time a third party candidate made the debate stage in a presidential election was in 1992, when Ross Perot took the stage with George H. W. Bush and Bill Clinton.

Our question: Who was the only other third party presidential candidate to be included in a general election debate?

Send your answers to [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.

Last week, we asked: Before she was nominated to the Supreme Court, Ruth Bader Ginsburg was an attorney with the American Civil Liberties Union, directing its Women’s Rights Project. Ginsburg argued six landmark cases before the Supreme Court. How many of these cases did Ginsburg win?

The answer: Ginsburg won five out of six cases.

Ginsburg played a role in 34 Supreme Court cases while with the ACLU, but of the six she argued, she won five of them. Many of those cases were those in which she argued that men were being discriminated against, in order to establish that sex discrimination was both possible and harmful.

Congratulations to our winners: Jackie Austin and Barbara Klingsporn!

Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your inbox next week
[link removed]


** Watch all our debate coverage streaming live online starting at 6 p.m. EDT
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