An analysis of 2020 rematches from 2018 + exploring California and Texas elections  
The Daily Brew

Welcome to the Tuesday, Sept. 29, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

  1. How many races in 2020 had the same candidates in 2018?
  2. Explore California elections
  3. Explore Texas elections

By the way, check out our newest Learning Journey with Common Sense Media on news literacy, and stay tuned for more journeys launching over the next few weeks.


How many races in 2020 had the same candidates in 2018?

Here’s an interesting analysis our elections team recently published. In the 2020 general election, 366 races in Ballotpedia's coverage scope are rematches between the same candidates who ran for office in 2018. 

Rematch elections in 2020 include:

  • 23 elections for the U.S. House
  • One state executive election
  • 339 state legislative elections
  • Three local races in our coverage scope 

Republicans won 205 of the 2018 races that are now rematches, while Democrats won 159 and third party or nonpartisan candidates won two.

Of the 23 U.S. House rematches, Democrats won 13 and Republicans won 10 in 2018. A Republican won the state executive race in 2018.

Of the 339 state legislative rematches, Republicans won 193, Democrats won 145, and third party candidates won one in 2018.

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Explore California elections

Yesterday we launched our 25 States in 50 Days series, where we feature what to know about two states in each Brew issue leading up to Nov. 3. We kicked things off by looking at Alabama and Arkansas. Let’s continue today with a look at California and Texas. 

California and Texas are the largest in the county by population, with 39.5 million and 28.9 million residents, respectively. The two states’ residents make up 11.9% and 8.7% of the total U.S. population, respectively.

On the ballot in California

At the federal level, California voters will elect 55 presidential electors and 53 U.S. Representatives. Twenty state Senate seats and 80 state House seats are up for election. Voters will also decide on 13 statewide ballot measures. Ballotpedia is tracking local elections in 10 counties, 16 cities, and 91 school districts.

Partisan data

  • In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) defeated Donald Trump (D) 62% to 32% in California. George H. W. Bush was the last Republican to win a presidential election in the state in 1988.
  • Both of California's U.S. Senators—Dianne Feinstein and Kamala Harris—are Democrats.
  • Democrats represent 45 of the state's U.S. House districts and Republicans represent seven.
  • California's governor, attorney general, and secretary of state are all Democrats, meaning it is one of 17 states with a Democratic triplex. It has held this status since 2011.
  • Democrats have a 29-11 majority in the state Senate and a 61-17 majority in the state Assembly. Because the governor is also a Democrat, California is one of 15 states with a Democratic trifecta. Democrats gained a trifecta after they won the governor's office in the 2010 election.

Battleground races

Here are three battleground races in California this year:

  • California's 21st: Incumbent TJ Cox (D) and David G. Valadao (R) are running to represent the 21st Congressional District. In 2018, Cox defeated Valadao, then the incumbent, 50.4% to 49.6%.
  • California's 25th: Incumbent Mike Garcia (R) and Christy Smith (D) are running. Garcia defeated Smith in a special election for the same seat in May 54.9% to 45.1%. Former incumbent Katie Hill (D) resigned in November 2019.
  • Los Angeles County District Attorney: Incumbent Jackie Lacey faces former San Francisco District Attorney George Gascón. This is the largest local district attorney's office in the country. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) endorsed Gascón, while Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) backed Lacey.

Ballot measures

  • California voters will decide 12 statewide ballot measures on Nov. 3—Propositions 14 through 25. Eight are citizen-initiated measures put on the ballot through signature petitions. The California Legislature referred four measures to the ballot. A selection of those measures is below. Click here for the full list.
  • Uber, Lyft, and Doordash are sponsoring a ballot initiative—Proposition 22—that would define app-based drivers as independent contractors and not employees, as well as enact several labor and wage policies. It is the most expensive ballot measure in terms of campaign contributions in California’s history, according to available reports covering from 1999 to the present.
  • Californians will decide two citizen-initiated measures, Proposition 20 and Proposition 25, designed to amend or repeal criminal sentencing and supervision laws passed during the second tenure of Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown (2011-2019).
  • Proposition 16 is a constitutional amendment that would repeal Proposition 209, passed in 1996, from the California Constitution. Proposition 209 stated that discrimination and preferential treatment were prohibited in public employment, public education, and public contracting on account of a person's or group's race, sex, color, ethnicity, or national origin. Without Proposition 209, government agencies and public entities would—within the limits of federal law—be allowed to develop and use certain affirmative action programs.

Voting

  • In response to the coronavirus pandemic, California is sending mail-in ballots to all active registered voters in the general election. The state has also authorized counties to consolidate precincts and defer opening voting centers until the third day before the election.
  • 59.9% of the total voter turnout voted by mail in 2018.
  • Some California counties may offer early voting opportunities.
  • Mail-in ballots can be returned in person or by mail. If returned in person, ballots must be received by close of polls on Nov. 3. If returned by mail, ballots must be postmarked no later than Nov. 3. You can check the status of your mail-in ballot here.
  • Polls in California will be open from 7:00 a.m. and 8:00 p.m. local time on Election Day.
  • In most cases, voters in California are not required to present ID at the polls in order to vote. Certain first-time voters may be required to present ID. For more information, click here
  • A completed absentee/mail-in ballot does not need to be notarized or signed by witnesses.  

Explore Texas elections

On the ballot

At the federal level, Texas voters will elect 38 presidential electors, one U.S. Senator, and 36 U.S. Representatives. The office of Texas Railroad Commissioner and eight seats on the state board of education are up for election. Both chambers of the state legislature are on the ballot, with 16 out of 31 seats up in the state Senate and all 150 seats up in the state House. Four seats on the state supreme court, three seats on the state court of criminal appeals, and 24 intermediate appellate court seats are on the ballot. Ballotpedia is covering local elections in 13 counties, eight cities, and 58 school districts.

Partisan data

  • In 2016, Donald Trump (R) defeated Hillary Clinton (D) 52% to 43% in Texas. Jimmy Carter was the last Democrat to win Texas in 1976.
  • Texas' Jefferson County is a Pivot County. Pivot Counties voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012, then voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016.
  • Both of Texas’ U.S. Senators—John Cornyn and Ted Cruz—are Republicans.
  • Republicans represent 22 of Texas' U.S. House districts and Democrats represent 13. District 4 is currently vacant.
  • Texas’ governor, attorney general, and secretary of state are all Republicans, meaning it is one of 19 states with a Republican triplex. It has held this status since 1999.
  • Republicans have a 19-12 majority in the state Senate and an 83-67 majority in the state House. Because the governor is also a Republican, Texas is one of 21 states with a Republican trifecta. Republicans gained a trifecta when they won a majority in the state House in the 2002 elections.

Battleground races

Here are five battleground races in Texas this year:

  • U.S. Senate: Incumbent John Cornyn (R), M.J. Hegar (D), Kerry McKennon (L), and Ricardo Turullols-Bonilla (I) are running for Texas’ Class II U.S. Senate seat. The last Democrat to win a U.S. Senate election in Texas was Lloyd Bentsen (D) in 1988.
  • 21st Congressional District: Incumbent Chip Roy (R), Wendy Davis (D), Arthur DiBianca (L), and Thomas Wakely (G) are running to represent Texas’ 21st Congressional District. Roy was first elected in 2018, defeating Democrat Joseph Kopser 50.2% to 47.6%.
  • 22nd Congressional District: Sri Preston Kulkarni (D), Troy Nehls (R), and Joseph LeBlanc (L) are running to represent Texas’ 22nd Congressional District. Incumbent Pete Olson (R), first elected in 2008, is not seeking reelection.
  • 23rd Congressional District: Gina Ortiz Jones (D), Tony Gonzales (R), and Beto Villela (L) are running to represent Texas’ 23rd Congressional District. Incumbent Will Hurd (R) is not seeking reelection.
  • 24th Congressional District: Candace Valenzuela (D), Beth Van Duyne (R), Darren Hamilton (L), Mark Bauer (I), and Stephen Kuzmich (I) are running to represent Texas’ 24th Congressional District. Incumbent Kenny Marchant (R) is not seeking reelection.

Ballot measures

  • There are no statewide ballot measures on the Nov. 3 ballot in Texas.
  • Click here to see Ballotpedia’s coverage of local ballot measures in Texas.

Voting

  • In response to the coronavirus pandemic, Texas has extended its early voting period, which opens on Oct. 13. Early voting was originally scheduled to begin on Oct. 19.
  • 6.6% of the total voter turnout voted by mail in 2018.
  • Polls in Texas will be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time on Election Day. Most of Texas lies within the Central time zone. Portions of west Texas (El Paso and Hudspeth counties) are in the Mountain time zone.
  • In Texas, all voters are required to present photo ID at the polls. For more information, click here
  • Only voters meeting certain eligibility criteria can vote by absentee/mail-in ballot. Eligibility criteria are outlined here
  • Mail-in ballots can be returned in person or by mail. If returned in person, ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Nov. 3. If returned by mail, ballots must be postmarked no later than Nov. 3. 
  • A completed absentee/mail-in ballot does not need to be notarized or signed by witnesses. 

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The Lucy Burns Institute, publisher of Ballotpedia, is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. All donations are tax deductible to the extent of the law. Donations to the Lucy Burns Institute or Ballotpedia do not support any candidates or campaigns.
 


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