Welcome to the Monday, Sept. 28, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

1. Share of incumbents defeated in contested primaries grows for third even-year cycle in a row
2. Explore Alabama elections
3. Explore Arkansas elections

Share of incumbents defeated in contested primaries grows for third even-year cycle in a row

Ballotpedia’s annual state legislative competitiveness study shows that for the third even-year election cycle in a row, the share of incumbents defeated in contested primaries has grown. In the 44 states that held state legislative elections this year, 153 incumbents—61 Democrats and 93 Republicans—were defeated by primary challengers.

Overall, 15.2% of the 1,016 major-party incumbents who faced primary challengers in 2020 lost, the third consecutive even-year cycle increase compared to 2018 (13.8%) and 2016 (12.3%). The loss rate in 2020 also exceeds that of 13.0% in 2014.

Highlights:

• 18% of Republicans who faced challenges in 2020 were defeated—the highest since at least 2014.
• 12% of Democrats who faced challenges were defeated, lower than the 14% rate in 2018.
• More Democrats were defeated in states with Democratic trifectas, as was the case for Republicans in Republican trifectas.
• The loss rate for incumbents in states with divided governments exceeds the national average altogether and by party.
• Democratic incumbents were defeated at the highest rate in states with Democratic trifectas and at the lowest in those with Republican trifectas. In states with divided governments, the rate exceeded the national average for Democrats.
• Republican incumbents facing contested primaries were more likely to be defeated in states with divided governments than in states with trifectas. 

The chart below divides the incumbents defeated in state legislative primaries into three groups: Democrats, Republicans, and both together. Within those groups, the darker shades represent the percent of the party incumbents who were defeated from 2014 to 2020. For example, in 2014, 11% to Democratic incumbents were defeated in state legislative primaries.

Some of the biggest changes states saw between 2020 and 2018 were: 

• Alaska: Eight incumbents were defeated in 2020 while just one was in 2018
• New Mexico: Seven incumbents were defeated in 2020 while three were in 2018
• Rhode Island: Ten incumbents were defeated in 2020 while three were in 2018 

Learn more

       

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Explore Alabama elections

Leading up to the Nov. 3 election, we’ll be featuring what to know about two states in each Brew issue. We’ll take you beyond the basics, providing context on what’s happening in each state for everyone across the country watching these races. This will include information on elections, partisan balance, and voting requirements. 

So let’s kick it off today with Alabama and Arkansas.

On the ballot in Alabama

At the federal level, Alabama voters will elect nine presidential electors, one U.S. Senator, and seven U.S. Representatives. Five statewide executive offices are up for election. Two of the nine seats on the state supreme court, two of the five seats on the court of civil appeals, and two of the five seats on the court of criminal appeals are on the ballot. Voters will also decide on six statewide ballot measures. Ballotpedia is tracking local elections taking place in Jefferson County and the Mobile County School District.

Partisan data

• In 2016, Donald Trump (R) defeated Hillary Clinton (D) 62% to 34% in Alabama. Jimmy Carter was the last Democrat to win the state in a presidential election in 1976.
• Alabama is one of 16 states without a Pivot County. Pivot Counties voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012, then voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016.
• Alabama’s senior Senator, Richard Shelby, is a Republican. Its junior Senator, Doug Jones, is a Democrat.
• Six of Alabama's U.S. House members are Republicans. One is a Democrat.
• Alabama’s governor, attorney general, and secretary of state are all Republicans, meaning it is one of 19 states with a Republican triplex. It has held this status since 2007.
• Republicans have a 27-7 majority in the state Senate and a 75-28 majority in the state House. Because the governor is also a Republican, Alabama is one of 21 states with a Republican trifecta. Republicans gained a trifecta when they won control of both legislative chambers in the 2010 elections.

Battleground races

Ballotpedia has identified one battleground race in Alabama this year:

• U.S. Senate: Incumbent Doug Jones (D) and Tommy Tuberville (R) are running for Alabama’s Class II U.S. Senate seat. Jones won a special election in 2017, becoming the first Democrat elected to the Senate from Alabama since 1992.

Ballot measures

• The legislature referred six constitutional amendments to the Nov. 3 ballot. Alabama voters defeated a seventh amendment in March. 
• Amendment 1 on the Nov. 3 ballot would change the state constitution to say that “only a citizen of the United States” who is 18 years old or older and meets residence and registration requirements has the right to vote. Currently, the state constitution guarantees that right to every such person. Similar measures are on the ballot in Florida and Colorado.

Voting

Information in this section is current as of Sept. 21.

• In response to the coronavirus pandemic, Alabama has temporarily waived its absentee/mail-in ballot eligibility requirements. This means any Alabama voter "who determines it is impossible or unreasonable to vote at their voting place" due to the pandemic can request an absentee/mail-in ballot.
• Alabama is one of 12 states that does not permit early voting.
• The deadline to request an absentee ballot is Oct. 29, although voters with extenuating circumstances may request an absentee ballot through Election Day.
• Absentee ballots can be returned in person or by mail. An absentee ballot must be submitted in person by Monday, Nov. 2. Absentee ballots returned by mail must be postmarked by Nov. 2 and received by the election manager by noon on Nov. 3. You can check the status of your absentee ballot here.
• Polls in Alabama will be open from 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. local time on Election Day. Although most of Alabama is in the Central time zone, portions of the state are in the Eastern time zone.
• Alabama requires a valid form of ID in order to vote in person. A completed absentee ballot can only be counted if two witnesses have notarized or signed its accompanying affidavit.

Explore Arkansas elections

On the ballot 

At the federal level, Arkansas voters will elect six presidential electors, one U.S. Senator, and four U.S. Representatives. Both chambers of the state legislature are on the ballot, with 17 out of 35 seats up in the state Senate and all 100 seats up in the state House. One special state legislative race is also on the ballot. Voters will decide on three statewide ballot measures. Ballotpedia is tracking local elections taking place in the Little Rock School District.

Partisan data

• In 2016, Donald Trump (R) defeated Hillary Clinton (D) 61% to 34% in Arkansas. Bill Clinton (D) was the last Democrat to win the state in a presidential election in 1996.
• Arkansas' Woodruff County is a Pivot County. Pivot Counties voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and Donald Trump (R) in 2016.
• Both of Arkansas’ U.S. Senators—John Boozman and Tom Cotton—are Republicans.
• Republicans represent all four of the state's U.S. House districts. Arkansas is one of 11 states with more than one U.S. House member where all members are of the same party. 
• Arkansas’ governor, attorney general, and secretary of state are all Republicans, meaning it is one of 19 states with a Republican triplex. It has held this status since Republicans won the offices of governor and attorney general in the 2014 elections.
• Republicans have a 26-9 majority in the state Senate and a 75-23 majority in the state House. Because the governor is also a Republican, Arkansas is one of 21 states with a Republican trifecta. Republicans gained a trifecta when they won the governor’s office in the 2014 elections.

Battleground races

Ballotpedia has identified one battleground race in Arkansas this year:

• Arkansas' 2nd Congressional District: Incumbent Rep. French Hill (R) and Joyce Elliott (D) are running in the general election for Arkansas' 2nd Congressional District. Hill was first elected in 2014, and won his subsequent re-election campaigns in 2018 and 2016 52%-46% and 58%-37%, respectively.

Ballot measures

• The Arkansas Legislature referred three constitutional amendments to the Nov. 3 ballot, which is the maximum number the legislature is allowed. Three citizen-initiated measures were also certified for the ballot, but the Arkansas Supreme Court removed them. 
• The measures on the ballot concern taxes, term limits, and direct democracy:
  • Issue 1 would continue a 0.5% sales tax with revenue dedicated to state and local highways, roads, and bridges. The tax will expire in 2023 if Issue 1 is defeated.
  • Issue 2 would change legislative term limits from a 16-year lifetime limit to a limit of twelve consecutive years with the opportunity to return after a four-year break.
  • Issue 3 would increase ballot initiative signature distribution requirements, increase the majority vote required for the legislature to refer constitutional amendments, change signature deadlines, and make other changes to the state’s ballot measure laws.

Voting

Information in this section is current as of Sept. 21, 2020.

• In response to the coronavirus pandemic, Arkansas has temporarily waived its absentee/mail-in ballot eligibility requirements, allowing any voter to cite concerns over COVID-19 as a valid reason for requesting an absentee/mail-in ballot.
• Arkansas' early voting period opens on Oct. 19 and runs through Nov. 2.
• The deadline to request an absentee/mail-in ballot by mail is Oct. 27. In-person requests for absentee/mail-in ballots are accepted through Nov. 2.
• Absentee ballots can be returned in person or by mail. An absentee ballot must be submitted in person by Nov. 2. Absentee ballots returned by mail must be received by Nov. 3. You can check the status of your absentee ballot here.
• Polls in Arkansas will be open from 7:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. local time on Election Day. Arkansas is in the Central time zone.
• Arkansas requires a valid form of photo ID in order to vote in person. 
• Neither a witness signature nor notarization is required for a completed mail-in/absentee ballot.

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