Another eventful week, with the government tightening the screws on the remnants of our former way of life and at least another six months of this strange existence now in prospect.
I was glad to see that, while the Chancellor announced further assistance to businesses and their staff during Thursday's economic statement, he didn’t accede to demands to keep the furlough scheme going. There is no point in pretending that many defunct businesses will return to life: the focus must be on the future.
I’m supposed to be doing some face-to-face teaching at Buckingham starting the week after next but I wonder whether this will now be feasible given the possibility of yet more restrictions. While we must continue to be on our guard against Covid-19 – especially at my age – I do feel terribly sorry for new students leaving home for the first time to be stuck in tiny rooms on campuses across the land, effectively forbidden from socialising, or from doing some of the crazy things which used to be part of the ‘fresher’ experience. There will be a lot of lonely young people in the next few weeks.
More trivially, I was hoping that I’d be able to attend lower-league football again next weekend, but this has been ruled out. If you haven’t already seen it, you should watch the discussion about the future of the beautiful game I had with IEA Director General Mark Littlewood and IEA Head of Education Dr Stephen Davies, hosted by IEA Head of Communications Emma Revell – on our YouTube channel here.
I found time on Tuesday to take part in an Acas Round Table. I’ve long suspected that Acas should be scrapped and its conciliation functions privatised, but I kept that opinion to myself on this occasion. I did however point out that their set-up favoured unions and large firms, with small businesses apparently unrepresented on their council. I also suggested that one reason for their ever-growing caseload was that much labour market regulation was too complicated for smaller firms (perhaps especially those started by recent immigrants) to understand or fully adhere to.
As the Treasury contemplates what to do to get the economy moving again, I hope it will push for substantial deregulation of both labour and product markets.
Professor Len Shackleton
Editorial and Research Fellow, Institute of Economic Affairs
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THE WINTER ECONOMY PLAN
With restrictions in place for the next six months, how can the Chancellor protect jobs and the economy over the winter period? What should we make of the announcements this week – of a curfew and the tightening of existing rules?
On the 10pm mandatory closing time for licensed premises, our Head of Lifestyle Economics Christopher Snowdon was quoted across the media, saying:
“A 10pm closing time for all pubs, bars and other hospitality seems to have emerged from a random policy generator.
“While mandatory table service has been part of the successful Swedish approach and may have merit, the new closing time will be devastating to a hospitality sector that was already suffering after the first lockdown.
“The government should publish the evidence upon which this decision was based.”
Meanwhile IEA Economics Fellow Julian Jessop wrote in The Times Red Box on Wednesday that:
"Repeated knocks to consumer and business confidence could still hit the economy hard, even without further government restrictions.
"In a best case scenario, the economic hit from a short second lockdown, such as a two-week 'circuit break', could be more like that in March, when GDP fell by 'only' 7 per cent over the month, rather than April, when it collapsed by 20 per cent. The recovery could then resume relatively quickly as well.
"However, it would be much harder to pull off this trick twice. The worst scenario could be a zig-zag policy of stop, start and then stop again, creating even more economic uncertainty and undermining confidence further."
Read his article in full here.
And on Friday IEA Director General Mark Littlewood issued a stark warning over the UK's "crushing national debt" in an opinion piece for The Telegraph. He wrote:
"The gaping and growing hole in the public finances has got just a little deeper as a result of the spending package announced yesterday. But the real problem is that it was so deep even without these emergency measures. If you carry on forever spending like there’s no tomorrow, eventually there won’t be."
Read the piece in full here.
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GOING LIVE
The Chancellor's statement, the Comprehensive Spending Review, the latest Covid restrictions and the Labour Party Conference were all addressed and analysed in detail by this week's Live with Littlewood guests.
On the panel: CPS Director Robert Colvile, the IEA's Dr Stephen Davies, journalist and politician Suzanne Evans, talkRADIO Presenter Mike Graham, Europe Economics Executive Director Andrew Lilico, former MEP Patrick O’Flynn, CIEO Founder Joanna Williams and Toby Young, General Secretary of the Free Speech Union.
Perhaps unsurprisingly given the Monday's conference with Professor Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance, the "rule of six months," and the Chancellor reiterating that he "cannot save every business" or "every job," the panel was lacking in positivity this week. Dr Stephen Davies placed this crisis within a wider historical context and gave a 6 out of 10 on the highly market sensitive Live with Littlewood optimism barometer. Suzanne Evans gave the UK's prospects a grim 3 out of 10 and Joanna Williams ended proceedings with an even more pessimistic 0 out of 10. Catch up here.
Our next Live with Littlewood will take place on Tuesday 6th October, from 6-7.30pm.
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THINK TENT
Tomorrow, Monday 28th September, the IEA is organising an event at The Spectator's Alternative Conference titled: 'The nanny state crusade: Is the war on obesity the tip of the iceberg?’.
It will take place from 5.45-6.15pm and will feature speakers Steve Brine MP, CIEO Founder Joanna Williams, The Spectator's Economics Correspondent Kate Andrews, 50/50 Parliament Co-Founder Dolly Theis, and the IEA's Christopher Snowdon.
Also tomorrow, IEA Director General Mark Littlewood will be taking part in a morning panel at the Conference at 10.45am, titled: ‘Out and into the world: Can Britain reclaim free trade?’. Also on the panel: International Trade Secretary Liz Truss, Adam Marshall of the British Chambers of Commerce, James Binns of Barclays Bank, and Chair Katy Balls of The Spectator.
You can register here for free access to this event and for the 20 other events in the conference.
Conference season in 2020 looks very different to previous years, not least with The Spectator's addition. But ThinkTent – our standing-room only event space co-hosted with the Taxpayers’ Alliance – is still standing. Going virtual for this year, our panels will be live-streamed on the brand new ThinkTent YouTube Channel and unlike a physical tent, there’s no chance of exceeding capacity. You can watch here.
Join us from Sunday 3rd – Tuesday 6th October to hear from expert journalists, academics, politicians, and think tankers on a range of topics including the future of the BBC, fiscal policy after coronavirus, and carbon taxes.
For details of the full line up of events and information on speakers, visit the ThinkTent website www.thinktent.co.uk.
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CALLING ALL STUDENTS
*IEA Oxbridge Training Day
Are you interested in going to Oxford or Cambridge? If so, there’s still time to register for the IEA’s Oxbridge Training Day on 30th September, from 1-3.30pm.
The Day will include lectures from Dr Stephen Davies, the IEA’s Head of Education, who will talk you through the 'Dos and Don’ts for Oxbridge Applications', an open Q&A session and a discussion with IEA Editorial and Research Fellow and Cambridge Economics Graduate, Professor Len Shackleton.
If you, or someone you know, would like to attend, register here. You can also find out more by emailing [email protected].
*Economics Conferences for Sixth-Formers
The IEA will also be hosting a series of free virtual economics conferences on 8th October (register here), 14th October (register here), and 6th November, from 9am-1pm (register here).
The conferences will help prepare students for A-levels and introduce a free-market perspective of economics. Topics include the economics of the future, globalisation and the impact of china, the UK’s productivity puzzle, international aid and the developing world, market and government failure and the gender pay gap, just to name a few.
These are open to A-level and IB students and teachers. Please email Brittany Davis at [email protected] for more information.
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YOU'RE INVITED
IEA BOOK CLUB WEBINAR: IN CONVERSATION WITH TIM HARFORD
On 29th September at 6pm, the IEA Book Club will be hosting Tim Harford, who will discuss his forthcoming book: "How to Make the World Add Up: Ten Rules for Thinking Differently About Numbers". The event will be chaired by Mark Littlewood.
Using ten simple rules for understanding numbers – plus one golden rule – this insightful book shows how, if we keep our wits about us, thinking carefully about the way numbers are sourced and presented, we can look around and see with crystal clarity how the world adds up.
Please note, this event is strictly for IEA Book Club members. If you wish to find out more about the IEA Book Club, please contact us at [email protected] or call 020 7799 8906. For more details on the event, click here.
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With a little help from our friends...
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