Welcome back to the Data for Progress newsletter, your weekly update on our research, blog posts, and memes.

New Senate Polling: The McConnell Majority Is More Endangered Than You Think
Mitch McConnell and the GOP have controlled the Senate since 2015 — but our new Progressive Senate Project polling, in collaboration with Indivisible, is showing positive signs for Democrats across the country — including in states that many strategists didn’t even think were on the map a year ago, like Kansas and Georgia.

• In Michigan, Democratic incumbent Gary Peters has a 47-42 edge over Republican John James.

• In Kansas, Democrat Barbara Bollier is TIED (40-40) with Republican Roger Marshall.

• In Georgia, Democrat Jon Ossoff is just two points behind Republican incumbent David Perdue (43-41).

• In Kentucky, Democrat Amy McGrath is trailing Mitch McConnell by seven points (46-39) — a smaller deficit that surveys showed last week.
   

As we explain in an op-ed for Crooked, these results indicate that Mitch McConnell’s term as the self-described “Grim Reaper” of Congress may be coming to a close.


A Trump Replacement of RBG is Likely to Devastate Progressive Priorities
How bad could a 6-3 conservative Supreme Court be for progressives? Answer: pretty damn bad.

In a new piece on our blog, attorney Ian Eppler breaks down the specific ways that a Republican-dominated Supreme Court could impact everyday American life, from stripping Congress’ power to regulate the environment, to clamping down on union rights, to striking down anti-coronavirus public health orders.

The good news? Progressives are already coming up with creative ways to fight back. In a new blog post, Justin Slaughter makes the case for protecting the ACA by increasing the individual mandate from $0 to $1, thereby removing the entire basis of the dispute.


Data Bytes

• Americans Want the Senate to Prioritize Coronavirus Relief, Not a Supreme Court Confirmation: While GOP Senators are pushing fiercely to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg, they’ve collectively shrugged at the millions of Americans in need of further stimulus.
  
  But voters aren’t letting them off the hook. In a brand new survey, we asked voters whether they thought the Senate should prioritize signing new coronavirus stimulus bills or filling the Supreme Court vacancy. Nearly two-thirds — 65 percent — chose coronavirus relief, while only 22 percent preferred to focus on confirming a justice.
  
  
   

• Voters Want to See More Climate Coverage in the Media: When the media covers extreme weather like the hurricanes down south and the wildfires out west, they often do so without explicitly connecting them to the climate crisis that is exacerbating them. In the dozens of segments from ABC, NBC, and CBS on Hurricane Laura, not a single one mentioned climate change.
  
  And it’s not just policy wonks that want to see more climate coverage — voters do too. In new polling, we show that an overwhelming, bipartisan majority of voters — 77 percent — think it’s important for the news to connect extreme weather events with climate change.
  
  
   

• Voters Overwhelmingly Oppose Trump’s Plan to Defund Social Security: President Trump has promised that, if reelected, he will “terminate” payroll taxes, which would cut off the dedicated source of revenue for Social Security.
  
  In new polling shared on our blog by Nancy Altman, president of Social Security Works, we show that a clear majority of voters think we should neither defer or terminate the payroll tax — even after hearing the argument that eliminating the payroll tax would “put more money in the pockets of workers.”
  
  

From The Blog
DFP Coronavirus Response Tracking Poll Week 23
Voters Overwhelmingly Oppose Trump’s Plan to Defund Social Security
If Trump Replaces RBG, Congress Must Expand The Court
How to Protect the Affordable Care Act From its Latest Legal Challenge
A Majority Of Voters Oppose President Trump Filling The Vacancy On the Supreme Court
A Trump Replacement of RBG is Likely to Devastate Progressive Priorities
Americans Think the Senate Should be Prioritizing Coronavirus Relief, Not a Supreme Court Confirmation


Memos
Memo: Voters in Key States Support a Wealth Tax
Memo: How Cities Can Protect Public Health When States Stand in the Way


Media Hits
The McConnell Majority Is More Endangered Than You Think @Crooked
As Advocates Demand Media 'Cover the Crisis,' Poll Shows Voters Want Comprehensive Reporting on Climate Crisis @Common Dreams
Beyond Trump: Despite the setbacks of 2020, progressives now have a real path to power @Salon
Majority Of Republicans Support Marijuana Legalization Bill That Democrats In Congress Delayed Vote On @Marijuana Moment
Left collects wins on Biden transition @Politico
In the Fog of Fire @On the Media


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