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Initial claims in the regular unemployment insurance program were little changed at both the state and national levels. While layoffs are not accelerating, they remain at high levels compared to the pre-pandemic level. The previous peak nationally was 695,000 claims the week of October 2, 1982 during the recession that caused state and local revenues to drop in the post-Prop 13 period.
While the most recent job reports indicate some degree of rehiring—more strongly on the national level than in California—job and employment gains continue to be associated with businesses that continue operating through deliveries and other alternative marketing channels and initial rehires associated with the limited reopenings to date. Layoffs remain at the current relatively stable but elevated rate from temporary layoffs becoming permanent as employers make the difficult decisions on required worker numbers in light of the growing timeframe for recovery. In the absence of policy changes to accelerate jobs recovery, claims levels are likely to remain elevated even in a post-shutdown stage, with high unemployment and loss of worker incomes continuing to be a drag on the state’s potential to return to prior economic conditions.
Within California, initial claims for the regular program gained 2.0% to 230,443, and initial PUA claims plunged by just over half to 99,284. Nationally, the reported seasonally adjusted regular program claims was up only 0.5% to 870,000, and the more relevant unadjusted numbers up 3.6% to 824,542. National PUA claims dropped 6.7% as the California numbers were replaced with a sharp spike in Arizona.
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