Today's Brew takes a look at election forecasts for federal elections in 2020 + two special elections set for Sept. 29
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Welcome to the Thursday, Sept. 24, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

* Nearly three in four of this year's federal races will not be competitive, election forecasters say
* Two special elections set for Sept. 29
* Comparing stances: Noteworthy presidential candidates on China

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** NEARLY THREE IN FOUR OF THIS YEAR'S FEDERAL RACES WILL NOT BE COMPETITIVE, ELECTION FORECASTERS SAY
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A Ballotpedia review of election forecasts found that 137 of the federal elections taking place this year (26.3%) are predicted to be competitive, with the remaining 384 all but certain to be won by one of the two major parties.

Five hundred and twenty-one federal elections are taking place, including elections for president in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, 35 seats in the U.S. Senate, and all 435 voting seats in the U.S. House. 

This review looked at race ratings from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, and the Bitecofer model as of Sept. 1. At that point, both major parties had wrapped up their 2020 national conventions.

A race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage. For more on race ratings, click here ([link removed]) .

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Election forecasters see President Trump as all but certain to win 13 states in his bid for re-election, with challenger Joe Biden all but certain to win 13 states plus the District of Columbia. Forecasters identify eight states as battlegrounds where both Biden and Trump have a substantial chance of winning.

U.S. SENATE

In the U.S. Senate, 23 seats held by Republicans and 12 seats held by Democrats are up for election. Forecasters project 10 seats are all but certain to go to Republicans and eight are all but certain to go to Democrats, leaving 17 competitive races. Two of those—Iowa and North Carolina—are toss-ups.
 
Forecasters also identify two seats that tilt towards each party, with Montana and the regularly scheduled election in Georgia tilting towards Republicans and the races in Colorado and Maine tilting towards Democrats. All six toss-up and tilt seats are currently held by Republicans.

U.S. HOUSE

In the U.S. House, forecasters project that 339 of the seats up for election are all but guaranteed to one of the two major parties—186 seats to Democrats and 153 to Republicans. Ten seats were identified as toss-ups where neither party has a clear advantage, including seven seats currently held by Democrats and three currently held by Republicans. There are five U.S. House races where forecasters differed on which party was ahead: Illinois' 13th ([link removed]) , Indiana's 5th ([link removed]) , North Carolina's 11th ([link removed]) , Texas' 3rd ([link removed]) , and Texas' 21st ([link removed]) .
 
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** TWO SPECIAL ELECTIONS SET FOR SEPT. 29
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We’ll be watching two special elections on Tuesday, Sept. 29.

GEORGIA’S 5TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT ([link removed])

A special election will take place in Georgia’s 5th Congressional District on Sept. 29. If no candidate wins a majority of the vote, the top-two vote recipients will advance to a runoff scheduled for Dec. 1.

The election was called after Rep. John Lewis (D) passed away on July 17. Lewis served from 1987 to 2020. 

Seven candidates are competing:

* Robert Franklin (D)
* Kwanza Hall (D)
* Barrington Martin II (D)
* Mable Thomas (D)
* Keisha Sean Waites (D)
* Chase Oliver (L)
* Steven Muhammad (Independent)

The winner of the special election will serve until Jan. 3, 2021. The seat is also up in a regularly scheduled election on Nov. 3.

As of Sept. 16, 10 special elections have been called during the 116th Congress. Eight of those were called for seats in the U.S. House, and two were called for seats in the U.S. Senate. From the 113th Congress to the 115th Congress, 40 special elections were held.

TEXAS STATE SENATE DISTRICT 30 ([link removed])

A special election will take place in Texas State Senate District 30. 

Incumbent Sen. Pat Fallon (R) is resigning because he was selected by Republican Party county and precinct chairs to run in the general election in Texas' 4th Congressional District. The incumbent in that congressional district, John Ratcliffe (R), was confirmed as Director of National Intelligence on May 21. 

Fallon announced his resignation on Aug. 22, effective Jan.4, 2021. 

The election is open to all parties. One Democrat and five Republicans are running. The winner will serve until Jan. 9, 2023—the date Fallon’s term was originally set to end.

To date, 58 state legislative special elections have been scheduled for 2020 in 26 states. Between 2011 and 2019, an average of 77 special elections took place each year.

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** COMPARING STANCES: NOTEWORTHY PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES ON CHINA
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In this week’s feature comparing the four noteworthy presidential candidates’ stances on key issues, we’re looking at what the candidates say about China. As a reminder, to be considered noteworthy in the general election, candidates must appear on enough ballots to win a majority of the Electoral College.

In the past few weeks, we’ve also briefed our Brew readers on the candidates’ stances on DACA and Dreamers ([link removed]) , policing ([link removed]) , coronavirus recovery ([link removed]) , and charter schools ([link removed]) .

JOE BIDEN (D) ([link removed])

Joe Biden's campaign website states, "To win the competition for the future against China or anyone else, we must sharpen our innovative edge and unite the economic might of democracies around the world to counter abusive economic practices. Lock in enforceable commitments that will reduce emissions in global shipping and aviation—and pursue strong measures to make sure other nations can’t undercut us economically as we meet our own commitments. This includes pressuring China—the world’s largest emitter of carbon—to stop subsidizing coal exports and outsourcing their pollution to other countries by financing billions of dollars of dirty fossil-fuel energy projects through their Belt and Road Initiative."

HOWIE HAWKINS (G) ([link removed])

Howie Hawkins' campaign website states, "USMCA contains a 'China clause' that allows any of the three USMCA members to a veto trade deal with China by another member. This continues the trade-war policies of Trump’s tariffs and Obama’s proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)."

His website continues, "The US should be seeking mutually beneficial trade relations with China (and all countries) instead of trying to build trade-war coalitions against it. As much as China deserves criticism for its authoritarian governance and human rights abuses, the US should seek fair trade relationships with China in order to improve labor and environmental standards within and across our borders and to work together to resolve the life-or-death issues of climate change and the new nuclear arms race."

JO JORGENSEN (L) ([link removed])

Jo Jorgensen's campaign website states the U.S. should not increase tariffs on imported products from China. When asked if the Chinese government should be able to extradite fugitives from Hong Kong, Jorgensen said, "We should not coerce China, but encourage them to embrace freedom."

DONALD TRUMP (R)  ([link removed])

Donald Trump's campaign website lists the following policies towards China: "President Trump agreed to a phase one trade deal with China that included a strong enforcement mechanism. Imposed tariffs on China in response to its abusive trade practices. President Trump met with representatives from the People’s Republic of China where he underscored his commitment to securing a fair trade deal protecting American goods and intellectual property."
Learn more→ ([link removed])
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