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Unsanitized: The COVID-19 Report for Sept. 23, 2020

The Fall Surge in Cases Has Arrived, But Not Deaths
Plus, Democrats get a small request on government funding

 

A coronavirus testing center at the airport in Dusseldorf, Germany.
Europe has seen rising cases along with the U.S. (Rolf
Vennenbernd/picture-alliance/dpa/AP Images)

First Response

**** Back in June, right when cases in the U.S. were beginning
to spike upward, I wrote a story about how deaths were not likely to
rise

to the same level we saw in the spring. We are now a few months on from
that prediction, and I want to note that it was correct. At the peak,
the U.S. reached a little more than half the level

of deaths nationwide as it did in April. The factors mentioned back
then-younger people being infected, better protocols in nursing homes,
and more medical knowledge on how to handle the virus-were all part of
this improvement.

That an "improvement" still leads to, at the peak, about 1,400
people dying every day in the U.S. from the virus, and even now around
800 or so, reflects just how dangerous this virus is. Until we get some
kind of vaccine or solid treatment that doesn't just mitigate but
cures the disease, the loss of life would be too great from resuming
normal activities. We've learned that most outdoor activities,
combined with safety features, are OK, but winter is coming.

Remember that we were all told that the late spring and summer months
were when the virus would be suppressed, and a second wave of cases
would probably hit in the fall and winter months. In part that was
assuming from the small sample size of the 1918 pandemic, because
that's the trajectory it took. But if you look at France and Spain and
the Netherlands right now, you are seeing a significant rise in cases
,
with France and Spain already at a higher level than the U.S. on a per
capita basis.

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**** In this country, there's been a minor surge in cases

over the past 10 days, with about half the states

seeing case growth of some kind. The U.S. should be better thought of as
akin to all of Europe, with different pockets in different regions.
States that hadn't seen high numbers like Montana and Utah, and
upper-Midwest states like Wisconsin and Minnesota, are the hardest-hit
at the moment. It's their turn on the curve.

Deaths and hospitalizations in the U.S. are still trending downward
. In Wisconsin
and Minnesota
, however,
hospitalizations are trending up, whereas in Utah
and Montana
they've leveled off.
In general, deaths abroad have not started to surge either, again due to
better treatments and more protections for the elderly.

The UK

and Europe

are implementing some targeted restrictions, though it's unlikely that
you'll see the same kind of lockdowns as before. We don't know what
the effects of people moving indoors in the cooler months, and getting
together around the holidays, will do. But one thing we can say so far
is that this hasn't gone along the exact same trajectory as 1918.
Then, the second wave that hit in the fall was a much more virulent
strain of influenza. The majority of the deaths came in that resumption.
This time, we're not seeing too much mutation from the virus, at least
not to the level that it becomes deadlier. There was some indication
earlier that a slight mutation made COVID-19 more contagious. But that
we can live with, relative to something that kills more efficiently.
Deaths aren't the only complication to worry about with this virus, of
course, as it appears to be kicking-up long-dormant health ailments in
many.

Regardless of the sighs of relief that so far the successive waves of
the virus have not been as catastrophic as the first, we're still in a
situation where we've lost 200,000 Americans
prematurely. It
didn't need to be this way. We could have let the initial lockdown
suppress the virus more before reopening. We could have used common
sense and practiced safety. We could have not turned simple things like
mask-wearing into a display of partisan bona fides. We didn't have to
have this many people die.

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The Unclean "Clean" CR

Yesterday we discussed how Mitch McConnell offered an opening to
Democrats

for additional stimulus for the economy, or defusing the threat to the
Affordable Care Act, when he balked at the lack of $30 billion in farm
bailout funds in the government funding legislation. This was a
transparent effort to get some walking-around money for states like Iowa
and North Carolina with tough Senate races. (Pelosi was cross-pressured
by farm-state Democrats to give up the money, too.)

Turns out that Nancy Pelosi did extract a price for that $30 billion:
"nearly $8 billion " in
nutrition assistance. Specifically, it funds a program that converts the
assistance kids would get with free school breakfasts and lunches into
food stamps. So you're talking about funding poor children got as a
matter of statutory law, that Democrats had to fight to give to them
under the peculiar circumstances of the pandemic, when schools are
closed.

I consulted a calculator for assistance and was informed that 8 is less
than 30, but Democrats also made sure that fossil fuel companies and
refiners couldn't take the farm bailout money, which was apparently a
problem. Sadly, getting only one-quarter of the value back from
Republicans in exchange for their wishes is almost an improvement on
negotiations in this calendar year. In fact, Democrats' initial ask
for nutrition help was $2 billion.

The House passed the bill

last night, and in my opinion, this does mean the end of any hope of
pandemic relief until at least December 11, the next funding deadline.
There's a backchannel bipartisan effort
to
unlock $134 billion in leftover PPP funds for small business, but the
last time PPP was reauthorized, practically no money went out the door
.

So what we have is everyone, including Federal Reserve chair Powell and
Treasury Secretary Mnuchin

just yesterday, knowing that the economy needs more stimulus, that
cities are on the verge of making major cuts
,
that millions of unemployed people whose federal enhancements have
expired are cutting back on spending, that small businesses will likely
fail by the thousands. Gravity can only hold up a depressed economy for
so long, and Congress has simply failed the country, both Republicans
with their tight-fistedness and Democrats with their perpetual giveaways
of leverage.

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Days Without a Bailout Oversight Chair

181
.

We Can't Do This Without You

Today I Learned

* Airlines are trying to extend their bailout
,
and if they succeed while the unemployed get nothing, Congress had
better attach a rider confiscating pitchforks. (Bloomberg)

* Dean Baker on why lack of international cooperation
on
vaccines was such a failure. (Beat the Press)

* Meanwhile there is some international cooperation
on
vaccines, it just doesn't include the U.S. or China. (Vox)

* So far, no major outbreaks in schools
,
but of course not many have fully reopened in large metros. (Washington
Post)

* The conventional wisdom has turned against lockdowns

as too economically costly. (Wall Street Journal)

* Skyrocketing hunger in America
,
but at least we maintained the tradition of "clean" government
appropriations. (The Intercept)

* Most people don't want strangers knocking

on their doors and canvassing them right now. (Politico)

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