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Wow, what an election. Restored my faith in democracy and the decency of our fellow American citizens. Now let’s look a little at what happened, why, and what we can learn going forward. So often pundits, consultants, and candidates take the wrong lessons away from victories. In my early analysis (with a caveat not every vote has been counted yet and preliminary exit polls), I would like to lay out my eight initial takeaways.
Also, I am looking at it in many ways as a comparison between this election and the 2018 election. Comparing it to the 2024 Presidential race makes little sense, and contrasting it to 2022 when Biden was President is a bit illogical. In 2018, Trump was unpopular, and Democrats did well, but they didn’t win in many key places like they did this election. In 2018 Democrats won nationally by 8 points, this year it is likely Democrats will win nationally by 13 or 14 points.
This was first and foremost a rejection of Trump and the GOP in every way. It was a rejection of their bad policies. It was rejection of their character, corruption, and lawlessness. It was a rejection of their tone and indecency. And it was a rejection of their decimating of the economy and a super-majority of our fellow Americans financial well-being. This wasn’t a vote because voters loved Democratic candidates. The biggest determining factor in every state across every region was Trump’s job approval. Trump’s overall net job approval on election day was -23, almost exactly what I expected. Trump’s overall net job approval in 2018 was -9, so he and the Republicans were in considerably worse shape nationally.
The voters who determined this election were by and large swing voters across America. This partisan breakdown of this electorate in 2026 did not fundamentally change nationally. In 2018 Democrats had a 3 point partisan advantage, and this election they had the same 3 point partisan advantage. Nationally there was not a significant increase in partisan Democratic voters. And there was not a drop off in partisan GOP voters from 2018 to 2026. The dual myths repeated by pundits of Republicans not turning out and Democrats increasing turnout is just that a myth. The only group to increase their share of vote were Independents. And Independents viewed Trump very unfavorably. His net approval among independents was at least -30, more than 20 points worse than 2018. Democratic candidates in 2026 doubled their margins nationally among Independents over their performance in 2018.
A majority of voters on election day had an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party. A majority of voters had an unfavorable view of the GOP. The voters who were key were those voters who had a unfavorable view of both parties. In 2018 this group represented 10% of all voters and they voted for Democratic candidates by one point. In 2026, this group increased by 50% to 15% of the electorate and they voted for Democratic candidates by an astounding 28 points.
In looking at two states specifically as examples, this all becomes increasingly clear. In 2018 when Beto lost Texas for the Senate by less than 3 points, Trump’s net job approval was even. This year in Texas Trump’s net job approval was -19. In addition, the composition of the electorate in Texas from 2018 to 2026 was roughly the same. Republicans didn’t drop off, and Democrats didn’t surge. The only group with an increase were Independents. Beto roughly broke even with those Independents in 2018, Talarico won Independents by 31 points.
In Ohio in 2018 when Democrats lost the Governor’s race, Trump’s net job approval was +7, this year when Democrats won the Governor’s race, Trump’s net job approval was -16. There was a slight change in the composition of the electorate in Ohio, but the biggest surge was among Independents. Those Independents were split even for Governor in 2018, but in 2026 they went for Acton by 30 points.
Why didn’t Democrats win the races in Florida? Trump’s net approval rating was 13 points better in Florida than it was nationally, and it was nearly ten points better in Florida than it was in Texas and Ohio. The races in Florida were winnable even in this environment if more money had been dedicated, but the Florida Democratic candidates were at a disadvantage because though Trump was disliked he wasn’t as disliked as nearly every place Democrats won.
There were no significant difference in performance of what are called progressive candidates and what are deemed centrists when you factor in partisanship and Trump’s approval rating. Progressives did not underperform this election cycle when you factor in money, composition of electorate and perceptions of Trump. Can we just go ahead and drop this distinction? It no longer is applicable, and as I have written before, a vast majority of American’s support higher taxes on the wealthy, Medicare for All, common sense gun reform, Roe v. Wade choice, and an active government which protects us. So really who are the centrists???
The two issues key to most voters were the economy/cost of living and corruption. These by far dominated voter concerns. And among these key independent voters it was even more so. These Independent voters expect action at the federal and state level on both these concerns. Keep in mind these voters are very transitional and are not strongly attached to either party, and they can abandon you as quickly as they supported you if there concerns are not dealt with.
This is just my initial list, and there are slight differences in some states, but the overall lessons are very clear. It is always best to see reality for what it really is, so one can make informed decisions going forward. Ignore most of the pundits and a vast majority of the political media discussion which has missed most of the above key points. Governing now must reflect the realities of what just happened on election day — a lesson both Democrats and Republicans must understand and accept.
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