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Friday Briefing — AppLovin Was the S&P 500's Worst Stock of 2026. The Twist Is a 31% Jump on a Crash Day | DAILY BRIEFING • TECH DESK | Nov 6, 2026 | | | AppLovin Was the S&P 500's Worst Stock of 2026. The Twist Is a 31% Jump on a Crash Day Revenue rose 55% to $2.18 billion and the fourth-quarter outlook cleared estimates, lifting shares 31% to $356.10 on Thursday as the Nasdaq fell 5.5% | | | REVENUE $2.18B Third quarter, up 55% | EPS $4.30 Versus $4.04 expected | Q4 GUIDE $2.39B Midpoint, versus about $2.25B expected | SHARES +31% Thursday close at $356.10 | | | AppLovin reported third-quarter results after Wednesday's close that topped forecasts across the board. Revenue rose 55% to $2.18 billion against a consensus of about $2.08 billion, earnings came in at $4.30 a share versus $4.04 expected, and net income jumped 72% to $1.44 billion. Adjusted EBITDA reached $1.84 billion, an 84% margin, and free cash flow was $1.4 billion. The company spent $1.4 billion buying back and withholding 4.1 million shares and raised its repurchase authorization by $3.2 billion, to $3.6 billion in total. Then came Thursday. On a day the Nasdaq fell 5.5%, AppLovin shares rose 31% to close at $356.10, one of the biggest gains in the market. The trigger was the outlook as much as the quarter: fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $2.37 billion to $2.40 billion sits well above the roughly $2.25 billion analysts had pencilled in. The read-through is about whether the AI-disruption fear was overdone, not whether the ad engine works. The stock had fallen about 65% this year by the end of October, the worst in the S&P 500, as investors worried about new rivals, a second-quarter shortfall the company blamed on the timing of model upgrades, and a securities class action whose allegations remain unproven. Consumer categories grew at triple-digit rates and gaming by nearly 50%, management is targeting margins in the low 80s, and even after Thursday the shares remain far below their 52-week high of $738. | | | Five Dates, From a Collapse to a Rebound | | DATE | WHAT HAPPENED | WHAT IT MEANT | | Feb 4 (Wed) | Ad-tech startup CloudX launches its platform broadly, and AppLovin shares drop 16% on competition fears. | The rival | | Feb 12 (Thu) | Shares fall nearly 20% after fourth-quarter results, even though revenue and earnings beat estimates. | The doubt | | Aug 5 (Wed) | On the second-quarter call, management blames a shortfall on the timing of gaming model upgrades; downgrades follow. | The stumble | | Oct 23 (Fri) | Shares close at $260.25, near a 52-week low and down well over half for the year. | The slide | | Nov 5 (Thu) | Stock jumps 31% to $356.10 on a record quarter and strong guidance as the Nasdaq falls 5.5%. | The verdict | | | Inside the Beat | | The quarter answered the bear case with the one thing short sellers cannot argue with: cash. | WHAT'S IN PLAY | | The quarter | Revenue $2.18 billion, up 55%; net income $1.44 billion, up 72%. | | The margins | Adjusted EBITDA margin of 84% and a net margin of 66%, with data-center costs falling as a share of sales. | | The guidance | Fourth-quarter revenue of $2.37 billion to $2.40 billion, ahead of the roughly $2.25 billion consensus. | | The buyback | 4.1 million shares bought back or withheld for $1.4 billion; authorization lifted to $3.6 billion. | Summary based on Yahoo Finance, Seeking Alpha, Simply Wall St, Motley Fool, TIKR and MarketBeat reports, November 4–5, 2026. | | Who Gains, and Who Pays | | A rebound this sharp reshuffles the winners and losers around one of digital advertising's most profitable platforms. | WHO FEELS IT FIRST | | Mobile game studios | Gaming revenue grew nearly 50%, a sign advertisers are still finding paying players through AppLovin's engine. | | E-commerce brands | Consumer categories grew at triple-digit rates; Citi counted more than 13,000 e-commerce clients by mid-September. | | Investors who bailed | Even after the 31% jump, the stock trades less than half its 52-week high, so many sellers locked in steep losses. | One thread ties it together: in a market spooked by AI, investors are separating companies that talk about AI from those already turning it into profit. | | A Market That Needs Watching Daily | | The next few weeks will test whether the rebound holds through the busiest ad season of the year. | A CHECKLIST WORTH KEEPING ON THE FRIDGE | | 1 | Nov 16 (Mon): Lead-plaintiff deadline in the securities class action filed in September. | | 2 | Nov 17 (Tue): Nvidia reports fiscal third-quarter results, a bellwether for AI sentiment. | | 3 | Nov 27 (Fri): Black Friday, a key test for AppLovin's growing e-commerce advertiser base. | | 4 | Nov 30 (Mon): Cyber Monday, closing out the peak holiday ad window. | | | |
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