Welcome to the Tuesday, Sept. 22, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

1. COVID-19 and candidate filings
2. The arguments for and against school closures
3. One week out from the presidential debate

COVID-19 and candidate filings

In response to the coronavirus pandemic, states have changed election dates, voting procedures, and candidate filing deadlines. We began to wonder - would the coronavirus pandemic have any impact on the number of candidates filing to run for office?

In response to the coronavirus pandemic, 25 states have changed election dates at the state or local level and 40 states have made changes to voting procedures. Nineteen states have made changes to candidate filing deadlines. 

We took a look at the potential effect these changes had on candidate filing ratios—or the number of candidates who filed compared to the seats up for election. We figured a simple approach would work - look at the candidate filings by state and compare them to 2018. Then, use a single date to determine the before/after. 

We chose the date of comparison as March 13, 2020—the date the Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO) urged countries to take a comprehensive approach to combating COVID-19. The data shows that the number of candidates who filed in 2020 and in 2018 is similar. In states that held their filing deadlines before and after March 13, more candidates per seat are running for office in 2020 than 2018.

• In 2020, 1,294 candidates filed to run for 230 U.S. House seats on or before March 13, meaning an average of 5.62 candidates filed for each seat up for election. During the same time period in 2018, 1,126 candidates filed to run for 205 U.S. House seats, meaning an average of 5.49 candidates filed for each seat up for election.

• In 2020, 1,084 candidates filed to run for 205 U.S. House seats after March 13, meaning an average of 5.28 candidates filed for each seat up for election. During the same time period in 2018, 1,168 candidates filed to run for 230 U.S. House seats, meaning an average of 5.07 candidates filed for each seat up for election. 

In 2018, 2,294 candidates filed to run in U.S. House district races. For this year’s elections, the number is 2,378. 

The five states with the largest changes in candidate filing ratios—calculated by dividing the number of seats up for election by the number of candidates who filed for election—(positive or negative) from 2018 to 2020 are presented below. For example, in New Hampshire seven fewer candidates filed for election to the U.S. House in 2020 vs. 2018, while in Hawaii four more candidates filed for election to the U.S. House in 2020 vs. 2018.

• New Hampshire (two total U.S. House seats): -7.00 
• Utah (four U.S. House seats): +6.25
• Hawaii (two U.S. House seats): +4.00
• Idaho (two U.S. House seats): -4.00
• South Carolina (seven U.S. House seats): -3.15

Click the link below to read our full analysis of the effect of the coronavirus on candidate filings.

Learn more

       

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The arguments for and against school closures

Discussions about policy responses to the coronavirus are happening at a fast pace. As part of our ongoing coverage in Documenting America’s Path to Recovery, Ballotpedia published a series of articles capturing the regular themes in support of and opposition to these policy responses.

Here’s how it works. First, we identify a topic area (such as mask requirements or testing). Next, we gather and curate articles and commentary from public officials, think tanks, journalists, scientists, economists, and others. Finally, we organize that commentary into broad, thematic summaries of the arguments.

In last week’s Brew we looked at mask requirements. This week, let’s look at school closures.

The arguments identified in favor of school closures include:

• School closures are necessary to prevent the spread of the virus.
• Evidence from past pandemics supports the effectiveness of school closures.
• Reopening universities will increase COVID-19 spread.
• Reopening schools puts people of color at higher risk.
• We should keep schools closed because COVID-19 outbreaks are inevitable.

The arguments identified opposing school closures include:

• School closures are ineffective in preventing the spread of the virus.
• School closures pose significant unintended consequences.
• School closures and reopening plans have disparate economic effects.
• School closures and distance learning exacerbate the digital divide.
• We need to reopen schools to protect the economy.
• School-aged children have reduced COVID-19 risk.

You can explore these arguments in more detail by clicking here.

We also encourage you to share the debates happening in your local community by sending an email to [email protected].

One week out from the presidential debate

The first presidential debate between Donald Trump (R) and Joe Biden (D) is on Sept. 29—one week from today. 

The in-person debate will be 90 minutes long with no commercial breaks. It will be divided into 15-minute segments on six different topics. Fox News' Chris Wallace, the moderator, will select the questions. Case Western Reserve University and Cleveland Clinic in Cleveland, Ohio, will co-host the debate.

Click here for coverage of the debate. Two more will be held in October.

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