“[Trump’s approval rating] is rising, and at a fairly steady clip. He isn’t at the 46% threshold yet, and it’s likely he’ll level off in the next few weeks, but that isn’t a given.
This is, frankly, a much better position for Trump to be in than the two most recent presidents who lost their reelection bids. President George H.W. Bush’s job approval was consistently in the mid-to-high 30s post-Labor Day, while Jimmy Carter’s job approval was in the low 30s. Trump’s job approval isn’t good, but it is closer to that of recent presidents who have won than to recent presidents who have lost.
Finally, in this vein, one of the more perplexing features of 2020 is that Trump’s job approval has outpaced his vote share in head-to-head polls. Who are these people who approve of the job he is doing but don’t plan on voting for him? My guess is they are eventual Trump voters, who either won’t admit to themselves or to the pollster that they are going to vote for him. Perhaps Trump will lose a substantial number of people who approve of the job he is doing, but I’m not sure I’d bet on it.
– Sean Trende, senior elections analyst for RealClearPolitics
Election Updates
Joe Bidenbegan airing two new ads focused on manufacturing and union jobs in Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Those same battleground states and Minnesota will also see a second ad featuring a Pennsylvania voter who previously supported Donald Trump.
Biden is campaigning in Duluth, Minnesota, on Friday. This is his first visit to the state since December 2017.
In a call with Democratic senators on Thursday, Biden discussed staffing, fundraising, and voter outreach for the general
election.
The Democratic-aligned Priorities USAannounced on Thursday that it was using $5.4 million from a donation from former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg to air ads focused on the coronavirus pandemic in 10 media markets in Florida.
Trump is holding “Great American Comeback” rallies in Minnesota on Friday and North Carolina on Saturday.
CNBC reported that casino executive Sheldon Adelson is expected to contribute $20 million to $50 million to Preserve America, the Republican National Committee, and other Republican groups to support Trump’s campaign.
The Trump campaign is airing a new ad nationwide and in Florida and Philadelphia that highlights the Israel-United Arab Emirates normalization
agreement signed this week.
The Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled on Thursday that Howie
Hawkinscould not appear on the ballot due to errors in a placeholder Green candidate’s nomination.
Jo Jorgensenwill campaign in Montana on Friday and Saturday and South Dakota on Sunday.
The Morning Call profiled Donald Trump’s campaign in Pennsylvania coal country.
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