Hi, Tim Plaehn here.

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To your income,

Tim Plaehn
Chief Income Strategist
Investors Alley

Tilray Finds a Path to Growth Without Waiting on U.S. Cannabis Reform

Submitted by Jeffrey Neal Johnson. First Published: 10/9/2026.

When investors hear talk of U.S. cannabis reform, they often look to major Canadian operators. Tilray Brands (NASDAQ: TLRY) frequently finds itself at the center of the conversation. As rumors of Schedule III reclassification circulate, the market tends to price Tilray Brands according to the political winds in Washington. A closer look at the company's actual revenue engine tells a different story.

Tilray Brands currently generates no reported U.S. cannabis revenue. Its domestic footprint is built primarily around craft beer, spirits, hospitality and hemp-based products. Treating the company as a pure-play bet on federal rescheduling ignores the physical operations currently driving Tilray's balance sheet.

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The real test for Tilray is its ability to scale international medical cannabis and consolidate the beverage alcohol sector. The data released with the company's first-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings reveal a company actively prioritizing structural efficiency over speculative domestic catalysts.

Brewing Up Profits Without Congress

Tilray Brands' U.S. operations function far outside the dispensary model. The domestic strategy relies heavily on scaling craft beer, spirits and hemp-based wellness products through its Manitoba Harvest brand. While the broader market waits for the Drug Enforcement Administration to finalize its stance on medical marijuana, Tilray Brands is executing a calculated roll-up of the beverage alcohol space.

First-quarter results highlight the effectiveness of this pivot. Beverage revenue rose roughly 82% year over year to about $101.5 million, nearly doubling the global cannabis segment's output. The recent integration of BrewDog drove much of this growth.

Management acquired the brand, stabilized its operations and restructured parts of the business. This aggressive restructuring helped the asset become profitable in its first quarter under Tilray Brands. The brand now self-finances, shielding Tilray Brands from the typical cash drag associated with large-scale integrations.

This focus on capital efficiency pushed overall beverage gross margins to around 41%, up from about 38% a year earlier. The company's operational scale continues to grow, anchored by an exclusive, multiyear agreement to produce and distribute Carlsberg brands across the U.S. beginning in January 2027.

By leveraging its existing brewing infrastructure to support globally recognized labels, Tilray Brands expects immediate revenue contributions and improved manufacturing utilization. The company is building a self-sustaining domestic revenue base that does not require federal cannabis reform to thrive.

Harvesting High-Margin European Growth

The international medical market represents the primary growth engine for Tilray's cannabis portfolio. During the recent quarter, revenue in Europe, the Middle East and Africa climbed about 71%, while international cannabis revenue rose about 21% year over year. Operations in Germany and the United Kingdom are expanding, supported by an optimized supply chain and direct-to-patient access networks.

The Portuguese cultivation facility anchors this European presence. Management reported an approximately 110% year-over-year increase in EU-GMP-certified flower shipments and a 150% jump in oil volumes. By reducing cultivation costs at the Cantanhede site by nearly 40% and improving strain yields, Tilray Brands is strengthening its low-cost production advantage in high-barrier medical markets.

By contrast, domestic Canadian adult-use revenue contracted slightly. Rather than chasing unprofitable market share in an oversaturated environment burdened by heavy excise taxes, management deliberately redirected roughly one metric ton of inventory away from Canadian recreational channels.

Management sent this supply to higher-margin international medical markets. Prioritizing margin over pure volume is difficult but necessary discipline in legacy markets. This strategic allocation of supply, paired with a transition to higher-yielding cultivars, directly influenced profitability. Total cannabis gross margins expanded 300 basis points to approximately 39%, helping offset about $8.8 million in international price compression.

Liquid Assets in a Drying Sector

The global cannabis industry is entering a period of forced consolidation. Capital constraints and punitive tax structures are pushing operators to merge or acquire distressed assets at steep discounts. The hostile $5-per-share bid from Curaleaf Holdings (OTC: CURLF) for Aurora Cannabis (NASDAQ: ACB) clearly signals the prevailing environment. Multi-state operators are actively seeking to expand their international infrastructure in preparation for potential 280E tax relief under Schedule III.

In this climate, liquidity and balance sheet stabilization provide a distinct competitive advantage. Tilray Brands ended the first quarter with approximately $221 million in cash and marketable securities. During the calendar year, the company retired roughly $42 million in outstanding debt, deliberately reducing its net cash interest expense. These moves provide the flexibility needed to navigate macroeconomic headwinds, including elevated global fuel surcharges and supply chain inflation, while limiting the need for additional equity financing.

The underlying business fundamentals remain intact. Management reaffirmed its full-year adjusted EBITDA target of approximately $68 million to $75 million, pointing to expected improvements in cultivation yields and sustained cost controls as the fiscal year progresses.

A High-Conviction Recipe for Investors

As the year unfolds, the market will likely continue reacting to political developments surrounding cannabis reform. For investors evaluating the cannabis sector, separating operational execution from regulatory speculation is a useful exercise. Tilray Brands' ability to expand consolidated gross margins to about 30% and deliver immediate profitability in newly acquired segments indicates a maturing operational model.

The current trading price of around $3.50 reflects widespread skepticism and heavy short positioning among institutional traders. Yet, the company's internal metrics suggest a foundation built on global beverage distribution and international medical supply.

By focusing on variables it can control, reducing unit costs, integrating acquisitions efficiently and optimizing inventory allocation, Tilray Brands has created a path forward that does not depend on broader U.S. marijuana rescheduling.

Only 20 Stocks Are Holding Up the Market: 3 Bargains Outside AI

Submitted by Bridget Bennett. First Published: 10/8/2026.

The market has hit a record high, but almost none of that performance belongs to the average stock.

That gap is where Whitney Tilson of Stansberry Research is doing his shopping. His view is that the index is masking a broad bear market underneath, with the clearest values currently sitting outside artificial intelligence. Three names make the case: a speculative play, an off-the-radar mid-cap and the world's largest drugmaker.

A Record-High Index Is Masking a Market-Wide Bear Market

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By Tilson's count, 19 of the 20 largest contributors to the S&P 500 this year are AI-related, and those names account for essentially the entire 13% index return. The other 480 stocks are collectively flat. Roughly 59% of S&P 500 components trade at least 20% below their all-time highs, and about one in six is down 50% or more.

That is what a bifurcated market looks like, and it explains why a value investor staring at a 99th-percentile Shiller multiple can still have a long shopping list.

Tilson follows the old Buffett-Munger approach: estimate what a private buyer would pay for the entire business, then buy at a steep discount. The strategy depends on the market making mistakes, and a market this narrow makes plenty of them. ServiceNow (NYSE: NOW) was a recent example. Investors priced in agentic AI gutting enterprise software subscriptions, while large corporations declined to rip out systems that worked. The stock subsequently recovered sharply.

Joby Aviation Is a Speculation With a Second Buyer Attached

Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) builds an electric aircraft that takes off vertically before rotating its motors forward for flight. It behaves like a helicopter but operates roughly 99% more quietly, which is the entire commercial argument: Most helicopters are not welcome over cities.

Tilson first recommended the stock near $7 three years ago. It tripled before round-tripping back to about $7 and a $6 billion market cap. The caveats are significant: no revenue, no FAA approval and no commercial flights. This is a position to size carefully, not a core holding.

The market is pricing in a delay. Commercial service in the United Arab Emirates—a 30-minute flight between Abu Dhabi and Dubai—slipped when regional conflict disrupted the timeline, and investors who saw no near-term catalyst sold. U.S. approval is realistically one to two years away, although Joby is further along than any competitor.

What could change sentiment is the first paying flight. What limits the downside is everything else the company owns: electric motor and battery technology, an engineering team and aircraft already delivered to the U.S. Air Force, where a quiet airframe has obvious value. If air taxis never become a viable business, Tilson expects electric vehicle makers and defense contractors to compete for the company.

Casey's General Stores Looks Like Walmart Did in 1988

Casey's General Stores (NASDAQ: CASY) operates about 3,000 convenience stores across 19 states from its Des Moines headquarters, generating roughly $18 billion in revenue and carrying a $22 billion market cap. It is the third-largest convenience chain in the United States and the fifth-largest seller of pizza. That is the point: The high-margin inside-store business drives the model, and more than half of sales now run through the app.

The stock fell about 34% in two months, sending its valuation from 35 times forward earnings to 26 times. The trigger was a quarter in which fuel margins drove the earnings beat while in-store comparable sales decelerated and management reaffirmed rather than raised its guidance. At a premium multiple, reaffirming guidance is not enough.

Nothing about the company's competitive position changed. Walmart (NYSE: WMT) had roughly the same $18.6 billion in trailing sales in mid-1988, nearly identical profitability and almost the same forward multiple. The stock has since come close to becoming a 100-bagger. The comparison is not a forecast; it is a reminder that 26 times earnings can be inexpensive for a business capable of compounding earnings at a double-digit rate for a decade. Casey's targets towns with populations of 500 to 20,000, and Texas alone has roughly 2,000 such towns.

Eli Lilly's Next Obesity Drug Is the Part the Market Is Discounting

Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) carries a trillion-dollar market cap and trades near 40 times trailing earnings, making it look like a story investors have already missed. Tilson believes the company is only in the middle innings at most.

Two factors support that view. The first is retatrutide, Lilly's next-generation weight-loss candidate and the first to target three hormone receptors at once, rather than the two targeted by tirzepatide in Zepbound and Mounjaro. Average weight loss in trials has approached 29%, compared with roughly 20% for Zepbound, with less muscle loss. Lilly plans to file with the FDA in early 2027, putting a launch in late 2027 at the earliest.

The second factor is the size of the eventual market. Studies continue to identify benefits beyond weight loss, including improvements in fatty liver disease, sleep apnea, inflammation, cholesterol and addictive behavior. The argument is that demand could eventually extend beyond people who need to lose weight, with low-dose use becoming common among people who do not.

Using estimates that Tilson believes are too conservative, Lilly trades near 28 times forward earnings, below its valuation for most of the past few years.

Where the Risk and the Upside Sit

The risks are uneven. Joby can drift for quarters without a catalyst and burn investor goodwill along the way. Casey's needs in-store comparable sales to stabilize, because a fuel-led beat leaves its guidance looking fragile. Lilly faces real pricing pressure across the category and a long regulatory runway before retatrutide sells a single dose.

The upside shares one trait: All three stocks sold off on sentiment rather than broken fundamentals, which is the only condition under which a value approach works at all.

Watch the catalysts instead of the quotes: Joby's first commercial flights, Casey's inside-store same-store sales and Lilly's retatrutide filing. Those are the developments that could move these three stocks.

For investors looking for more of Tilson's insights, visit here.