Robert Redfield, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), estimated that a vaccine for the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, COVID-19, will likely be available (WSJ) to the U.S. public in the late second or third quarter of 2021. A limited supply that could be made by the end of 2020 would be prioritized for high-risk people and first responders, Redfield told a Senate subcommittee. He also encouraged the use of masks.
 
President Donald J. Trump pushed back, saying a vaccine could be ready in weeks (NYT) for immediate public distribution, though multiple vaccine experts have disputed that timeline. Trump also questioned the effectiveness (WaPo) of masks, which have been shown to limit the virus’s spread. Daily U.S. coronavirus infections have risen to roughly 40,000, and the country has recorded almost 197,000 total virus-related deaths (CNN).

Investments between the United States and China fell to their lowest (Bloomberg) since 2011, totaling $10.9 billion in the first half of 2020, according to the U.S.-China Investment Project. The drop comes amid political tensions (SCMP) and the coronavirus-related economic slump.
 
New Zealand: Gross domestic product (GDP) dropped 12.2 percent (New Zealand Herald) in the second quarter, plunging New Zealand into its first recession in eleven years. Pandemic restrictions hamstrung economic activity, including the retail, restaurant, and transport sectors.

A Taliban spokesperson said the group will not accept a cease-fire (TOLO), which has been called for by the Afghan government, unless the two sides discuss the root of Afghanistan’s war. Intra-Afghan talks opened last weekend, but negotiation procedures still have not been set.
 
CFR’s Max Boot explains why intra-Afghan talks are unlikely to result in a quick breakthrough.
 
Pakistan: Authorities opened investigations into fifty pilots, suspended thirty-two others, and launched criminal probes of at least five civil aviation officials, according to a Reuters report. A scandal over dubious pilot credentials has tarnished the reputation of Pakistan’s aviation industry.

The head of Libya’s UN-backed government, Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj, said he wants to step down (Al Jazeera) by the end of October and urged the swift naming of a new administration. His departure could create (Arab News) more political uncertainty and conflict for Libya, which is torn between rival administrations in the east and west.
 
Jerusalem: Authorities said Jerusalem’s holy site, which is known by Jews as the Temple Mount and Muslims as the Noble Sanctuary, will close tomorrow (AFP) as Israel’s coronavirus caseload soars and the country begins a second lockdown. Jerusalem’s Great Synagogue will be shuttered (AFP) for the first time during the Jewish New Year.

Nearly 220 inmates escaped a jail (Daily Monitor) in northeastern Uganda after overpowering staff and stealing firearms. The army said it is pursuing the prisoners, ten of whom have either been killed or recaptured. A soldier was killed in the incident.
 
Nigeria: The UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) urged Nigerian authorities (BBC) to review a ten-year prison sentence that an Islamic court in the state of Kano imposed on a thirteen-year-old for blasphemy. Twelve Nigerian states have Islamic courts that rule based on sharia law.

While in Washington, UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab blamed the European Union (Politico) for a potential Brexit-related threat to peace in Northern Ireland. If passed, a UK bill could override parts of the Brexit deal related to the Irish border, but some fear the move could undermine peace (BBC).
 
This CFR Backgrounder explains the Northern Ireland peace process.
 
Germany: Twenty-nine police officers in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia were suspended (DW) pending an investigation of far-right propaganda, including images of Adolf Hitler, shared in WhatsApp chat groups. Eleven officers face prosecution, and fourteen will likely be fired.

UN investigators accused Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and other high-ranking officials of crimes against humanity (WSJ), including extrajudicial executions, the jailings of political rivals, and the torture of protesters. They urged the International Criminal Court and other bodies to criminally investigate. Venezuela condemned the investigators’ report (teleSUR).
 
Guyana/Suriname: U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is set to arrive (Miami Herald) in Suriname today before traveling to Guyana in the first visit by a U.S. secretary of state to either country. Pompeo’s tour will also include stops in Brazil and Colombia.