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**SEPTEMBER 16, 2020**

Kuttner on TAP

Election Night Could Be Smoother for Senate Races

****

The disaster scenarios for voter suppression and Election Day sabotage
leave out one piece of hopeful news. The Senate election story could be
very different from the presidential.

The reason is that most of the states where Democrats have a good shot
at picking up Republican-held seats have reasonably honest election
administration.

By contrast, several key swing states needed for a Biden victory risk
all manner of voter suppression and manipulation-notably Florida and
Wisconsin, but also Michigan and Pennsylvania, which have Democratic
governors but Republican legislatures.

But the Senate breaks differently.

Colorado and

**Maine**, two of the most likely Democratic pickups, have exemplary
election procedures.

**North Carolina**, which was one of the worst suppressors in 2016, now
has a Democratic governor and a state Board of Elections headed by a
nonpartisan chief. North Carolina mischief has also been constrained by
court orders.

Montana, where Gov. Steve Bullock has a shot at taking a seat from
Republican incumbent Steve Daines, has a history of honest election
administration.

Alaska, which has been trending Democratic, now shows incumbent
Republican Dan Sullivan running even in the polls against challenger Al
Gross; it's another state with a history of basically honest election
administration
.

Arizona, another good possibility for Democrats, abused purges last
time. It has a Democratic secretary of state and less prospect of
mischief than in some years past.

Even

**Kentucky**, where Mitch McConnell faces a challenge from Amy McGrath,
now has a Democratic governor and only limited suppression.

In

**Iowa**, where Republican Joni Ernst faces a close race against
Democrat Theresa Greenfield, the Republican legislature passed a very
restrictive voter ID law in 2017, which will disenfranchise an estimated
260,000 voters
.

The extreme case is

**Georgia**, with two Senate races this year. It is the reeking center
of purges, manipulated polling places, and other forms of voter
suppression.

That could cost Democrats two otherwise winnable seats, possibly three
if Iowa is very close. But at least six other possible pickup states
have reasonably fair elections. Take a moment to thank the Founders for
federalism.

The presidential election, of course, is a whole other story. Even if
Biden is the runaway winner, it will be trench warfare between now and
January 20.

~ ROBERT KUTTNER

Follow Robert Kuttner on Twitter

Robert Kuttner's latest book is
The Stakes: 2020 and the Survival of American Democracy
.

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