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Power Field Notes

The Latent Capacity: What a Resolution Would Unleash
The OPEC+ decision pointed to a crucial feature of the eventual resolution:
the substantial latent spare capacity that would return to the market once the
Hormuz situation normalizes. With OPEC+ production having collapsed from 42.77
million barrels a day before the war to around 33 million during it, the group
holds roughly 9-10 million barrels a day of stranded capacity — production that
exists and could be restored, but cannot currently reach the market through the
contested strait.This latent capacity is the key to understanding why a genuine
resolution would be so bearish for prices: the moment the strait reopens fully
and the sanctions ease, a large volume of currently-stranded supply could
return relatively quickly, potentially driving prices sharply lower.
The latent-capacity dynamic defines the asymmetry in the price outlook. On the
upside, the escalation risk — the third carrier group, the post-midterm strike
expectations — could drive prices higher, but the gains may be capped by the
demonstrated resilience of the supply and the G7 reserve release. On the
downside, a genuine resolution — the full reopening of Hormuz, the easing of
sanctions, the return of the stranded OPEC+ capacity and the constrained
Iranian exports — could drive prices sharply lower, since the roughly 9-10
million barrels a day of latent capacity could return far faster than new
production could be developed. This asymmetry has a crucial implication for the
price path: the war premium that keeps Brent above $100 is, in effect, pricing
the probability that the resolution does not come quickly; if a credible
resolution materialized, that premium could collapse rapidly as the market
anticipated the return of the stranded supply. The latent capacity also
explains OPEC+’s strategic patience: the group knows its capacity is intact and
can be restored, so it has no urgency to add paper quotas.

■ OVERVIEW · The capacity OPEC+ holds roughly 9-10 million b/d of stranded
capacity — the gap between its ~33 million actual and ~42.77 million pre-war
production

■ ANALYSIS · The asymmetry A genuine resolution could unleash the stranded
supply far faster than new production could be developed · potentially driving
prices sharply lower

■ OUTLOOK · The picture The war premium keeping Brent above $100 is, at its
core, a bet on the duration of the conflict · a credible resolution could
collapse it rapidly

“this is all predicated on scenarios in Hormuz” — Neil Crosby, Oil Market
Analyst, Sparta Commodities
Sources: CNBC / OPEC, 2026
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·The Moscow Times, October 4, 2026
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·EIA STEO, September 2026
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