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HERE'S WHY TRUMP WON'T END THE IRAN WAR
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|  | They declared a ceasefire! Until they didn’t. Then Trump said we were about to sign a deal. Until we started shooting at each other again. According to one source, Trump has said an Iran deal is “close” 38 times since the war began. In the time between writing this message and you reading it, who knows whether we’ll be hearing about an imminent deal… or more bombing. And it doesn’t matter. This is all a distraction. Here’s the REAL reason why Trump may NEVER end this war. | | This ad is sent on behalf of Banyan Hill Publishing. | | | | |
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Builders Are Starting Fewer Apartments — and Finishing Far Fewer Homes August housing starts slipped to a 1.275 million pace as apartment starts fell 22.5%, while completions dropped 27% from a year earlier. | | | The Capital Brief | October 05 | | | Housing Supply Brief | | Builders Are Starting Fewer Apartments — and Finishing Far Fewer Homes | | | | Housing supply is often discussed in terms of how many homes are started. The more immediate question for buyers and renters is how many are finished and ready to live in. The Census Bureau and HUD reported that housing starts ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.275 million in August, 2.6% below July and 1.2% below a year earlier, changes that were not statistically significant. Single-family starts rose to 918,000, while starts of buildings with five or more units fell 22.5% to 344,000. Building permits were 1.394 million. Completions fell to 1.128 million, 27.1% below a year earlier, a statistically significant decline. These numbers do not tell us whether rents or home prices will rise, whether builders are retreating, or what any local market looks like. Monthly figures are volatile and heavily revised. The practical value is to read the construction pipeline from start to finish. For businesses, it shows where building activity is shifting. For households, it explains why new supply may be thin in the coming year. | | 01 | How the Pipeline Works | | | Permits authorize construction, starts mark the beginning of work, and completions mark homes ready for occupancy. Starts and completions come from a sample survey and carry wide confidence intervals. Permits come from about 20,000 permit-issuing offices. Monthly figures are revised substantially; July starts were revised up by about 70,000. Good interpretation begins with trends across the pipeline rather than a single month's starts. | | | | Single-family starts rose 7.6% from July to 918,000, though the change was within the margin of error. Compared with a year earlier, single-family starts were up about 5%. Single-family permits slipped 1.8% to 878,000. Builders have relied on incentives and smaller homes to keep selling despite mortgage rates near 7%. | | 03 | Apartments Pulled Back | | | Starts in buildings with five or more units fell 22.5% from July to 344,000 and were 15.5% lower than a year earlier. Permits for larger buildings also slipped, though they remained above last year's level. Multifamily projects depend heavily on financing, and higher interest rates raise their costs. Fewer apartment starts today mean fewer rental units in two or three years. | | 04 | Completions Fell Sharply | | | Total completions fell 11.9% from July to 1.128 million and were 27.1% below a year earlier. Single-family completions fell 22.9% over the year, and completions of larger buildings fell 35.7%. The wave of apartment construction that began during the low-rate period has largely been delivered. Fewer completions mean less new supply entering the market in the near term. | | | | The South accounted for about half of all starts, at 658,000, with 531,000 single-family homes. The West had 323,000 starts, the Midwest 198,000 and the Northeast 96,000. Permits followed a similar pattern, with the South leading at 745,000. Regional estimates carry wide margins of error, but the concentration of building in the South is consistent. | | 06 | Rates and Costs Shape Building | | | The 30-year mortgage rate averaged 7.28% on October 1, according to Freddie Mac, up from 6.34% a year earlier. The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate on September 16, increasing financing costs for builders and developers. Construction spending on residential projects was down 4.8% from a year earlier in August. Material and labor costs remain elevated, adding to pressure on project budgets. | | 07 | What Households Can Control | | | National construction data are outside any household's control. Local housing decisions are not. Renters in markets where apartment completions are falling may face less competition among landlords next year, which can affect lease negotiations. Buyers considering new construction should compare builder incentives, completion timelines and total monthly costs. This is not advice to buy, rent or invest in real estate. Local supply conditions vary widely. | | | | A 2.6% dip in housing starts should not be turned into a grand theory about housing. The change was within the margin of error, and revisions are common. September starts and permits are due October 20, and existing-home sales arrive in mid-October. For households, the long game is recognizing that housing supply responds slowly to rates and costs. For builders and investors, it is managing projects through a period of expensive financing. Starts get the headlines, but completions put roofs over heads. The useful question is not whether starts dipped. It is whether enough homes will be finished to meet demand in the years ahead. | | | | The Takeaway | | 1 | Housing starts were 1.275 million at an annual rate in August, a change within the margin of error. | | 2 | Single-family starts rose while apartment starts fell 22.5% from July. | | 3 | Completions dropped 27.1% from a year earlier, signaling less new supply soon. | | 4 | High mortgage rates and financing costs continue to weigh on construction, especially apartments. | | 5 | Fewer completions today may tighten housing supply in the coming year. | | | Stay patient, stay curious,
T.C. Brown
Editor, True Capital Talk | | | | Sources & Further Reading | | | | For educational and informational purposes only. Nothing here is financial, real estate, mortgage, investment, legal, or tax advice. Construction statistics describe national and regional aggregates; estimates are subject to revision, and local conditions vary. | | |
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