For the second time in a single week, Ukrainian drones slipped past nearly 200
air-defense interceptors and slammed into the Moscow Oil Refinery — barely 15
kilometers from the Kremlin.




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MOSCOW'S BIGGEST REFINERY JUST WENT UP IN FLAMES



 

 




Сⅼіϲkhеrе and I'll reveal the shocking details.
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Dear Reader,

At dawn this week, the sky over Moscow turned black. Watch the footage they
tried to bury here.
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<[link removed]>
For the second time in a single week, Ukrainian drones slipped past nearly
200 air-defense interceptors and slammed into the Moscow Oil Refinery — barely
15 kilometers from the Kremlin. Storage tanks erupted. One blast launched the
lid clean off a fuel tank. Four airports shut down. Thirteen million residents
woke up to a city choking on its own smoke.

Russian state media is now begging people to stop posting the videos. Think
about that. A nuclear superpower, terrified of a phone camera.

But here's what almost no one is telling you: the drones that did this
weren't flown by pilots. They were guided by a new kind of"living software" —
AI that finds, tracks, and hits targets on its own. Generals are calling it the
single most important weapon since the machine gun.This is the breakthrough
behind the strikes.
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A $2 Trillion Deficit Is Not New — but the Interest Bill Is Through August,
the federal deficit was about $1.97 trillion, while net interest topped $1
trillion and now consumes about a fifth of revenue.




The Capital Brief October 05
Fiscal Policy Brief
A $2 Trillion Deficit Is Not New — but the Interest Bill Is


Federal deficits are often described with numbers so large they lose meaning.
The more useful question is what the government is spending on, and how much of
it simply pays for past borrowing. Treasury's Monthly Treasury Statement showed
a federal deficit of about $1.97 trillion for the first 11 months of fiscal
year 2026, roughly the same as a year earlier. Receipts rose about 3% to $4.85
trillion and outlays about 2% to $6.81 trillion. Net interest reached about
$1.02 trillion, up nearly 9%, equal to about 15% of outlays and 21% of
receipts. Debt held by the public was about $32.4 trillion when the fiscal year
ended on September 30. These numbers do not tell us whether a fiscal crisis is
coming, whether taxes will rise, or how any household's finances will change.
Monthly budget figures are affected by timing shifts, and the full-year totals
are not yet published. The practical value is to understand where federal money
is going and how interest rates feed back into the budget. For businesses, it
frames tax and spending policy. For households, it explains pressure on
programs and borrowing costs.

01 What the Budget Data Measure
The Monthly Treasury Statement reports actual federal receipts and outlays on
a cash basis. The Congressional Budget Office publishes an earlier estimate and
also reports figures adjusted for timing shifts, such as payments moved because
of weekends or holidays. Fiscal year 2026 ran from October 1, 2025, through
September 30, 2026. Good interpretation begins with consistent measures. CBO
estimated the 11-month deficit at $2.0 trillion, about $6 billion less than a
year earlier.

02 Interest Is the Fastest-Growing Bill
Net interest outlays reached about $1.02 trillion through August, up from
about $933 billion a year earlier. CBO's measure of net interest on the public
debt rose 12%, to about $1.05 trillion. Interest now absorbs roughly one in
every five dollars the government collects. Higher interest rates and a larger
debt both drive this increase, and interest costs crowd out room for other
priorities.

03 Revenue Rose, Unevenly
Individual income tax receipts rose about 8%, to roughly $2.55 trillion.
Corporate income tax receipts fell about 25%, partly because 2025 tax
legislation allowed larger deductions for business investment, according to CBO.
Customs duties totaled about $167 billion, only slightly above last year,
because the government began refunding tariffs after a February Supreme Court
decision on emergency tariff authority. CBO reported roughly $110 billion in
tariff refunds had been issued through August.

04 Where Spending Grew
Social Security outlays rose about 5%, to roughly $1.53 trillion, reflecting
more beneficiaries and the 2.8% cost-of-living adjustment. Medicare outlays
rose modestly on a cash basis; CBO estimates an 8% increase after adjusting for
timing shifts. Defense spending rose to about $876 billion, and veterans'
programs to about $396 billion. Education, training and social services outlays
fell sharply compared with a year earlier.

05 The Debt Picture
Debt held by the public was about $32.4 trillion at the end of fiscal year
2026, according to Treasury. Total public debt, including amounts owed to trust
funds, was about $40.2 trillion. Debt held by the public is the measure most
relevant to financial markets, because it is the debt that must be financed by
investors. As older, lower-rate debt matures and is refinanced at higher rates,
interest costs tend to rise even if new borrowing slows.

06 How Rates Feed Back
The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate on September 16 to a range of 3.75%
to 4.00%. Treasury yields influence what the government pays on new debt and
also set the baseline for mortgages and business loans. Large federal borrowing
needs can put upward pressure on longer-term rates, especially when inflation
is elevated. That connection links the budget to household borrowing costs,
from mortgages to auto loans.

07 What Households and Businesses Can Control
Federal budget totals are outside any household's control, but their effects
are not invisible. Rising interest costs can shape future debates over taxes,
Social Security and Medicare, which matter for retirement planning. For
businesses, tax rules, tariff policy and government contracting are directly
affected by budget decisions. This is not advice on taxes, investments or
politics. It is a reminder to plan with policy uncertainty in mind.

08 The Long Game
An 11-month deficit similar to last year's should not be turned into a grand
theory about fiscal stability or crisis. CBO's estimate for the full fiscal
year is expected around October 8, and Treasury's final statement for fiscal
2026 later in October. For households, the long game is diversified savings and
retirement plans that can adapt to policy changes. For businesses, it is
planning for higher borrowing costs and shifting tax and trade rules. Deficits
are a flow; interest is a commitment. The useful question is not whether $2
trillion is large. It is how much of future budgets will go to paying for the
past.


The Takeaway

1 The federal deficit was about $1.97 trillion for the first 11 months of
fiscal 2026, similar to a year earlier.
2 Net interest exceeded $1 trillion, consuming about one-fifth of federal
revenue.
3 Individual tax receipts rose, while corporate taxes fell and tariff refunds
held customs receipts flat.
4 Debt held by the public reached about $32.4 trillion at the end of the
fiscal year.
5 Higher rates make borrowing costlier for both government and households.
Stay patient, stay curious,
T.C. Brown
Editor, True Capital Talk


Sources & Further Reading

• Monthly Treasury Statement, August 2026 — U.S. Department of the Treasury,
Bureau of the Fiscal Service
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• Monthly Budget Review: August 2026 — Congressional Budget Office, September
9, 2026 <[link removed]>
• Debt to the Penny — U.S. Department of the Treasury
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• FOMC statement, September 16, 2026 — Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
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For educational and informational purposes only. Nothing here is financial,
investment, tax, legal, or political advice. Budget statistics describe federal
aggregates; figures are subject to revision and timing adjustments.  


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