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Nucor and Steel Dynamics Just Pulled Back—The Steel Story Still Looks Strong

By Chris Markoch. Originally Published: 9/22/2026.

The basic materials sector has had a strong year in 2026. That performance is reflected in the iShares U.S. Basic Materials ETF (NYSEARCA: IYM), which is up more than 17% in 2026 and 21% over the last 12 months. Both figures are higher than the S&P 500's gain of approximately 13%, with dividends reinvested.

This broad sector includes steelmakers. Many individual names, including Nucor (NYSE: NUE) and Steel Dynamics (NASDAQ: STLD), have outpaced the IYM ETF, and analysts believe both stocks have further upside ahead.

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In the short term, however, both NUE and STLD are pulling back. The driving force was their guidance. Nucor guided for third-quarter earnings of $5.55 to $5.65 per share, up from $5.04 in the second quarter. However, that is below the analyst consensus of $6.17. Steel Dynamics guided for earnings per share (EPS) of $5.34 to $5.38. That is up from $3.69 but also below analyst estimates.

However, the sell-off appears to be driven more by sentiment than fundamentals. The steel industry has several strong tailwinds, suggesting these stocks may simply be taking a breather.

Hot-Rolled Coil Pricing Has Reset Higher

U.S. hot-rolled coil trades near $1,200 per ton, up from approximately $800 a year ago. Fall mill outages are set to remove more than 1 million tons of supply between September and December, while lead times range from eight to 12 weeks.

Mills are also writing 2027 contracts at higher levels, with CRU pointing to $1,100 to $1,175 per ton, versus approximately $800 for 2026. Futures are set to slope lower into late 2027. Even so, the back end of the curve remains well above last year's levels.

Shipments and Backlogs Support the Price Story

Volumes support the pricing story. Steel Dynamics guided to record shipments, with a fabrication backlog nearly 50% above last year's level and extending through the first quarter of 2027. That demand spans commercial construction, data centers, manufacturing and healthcare.

Nucor also reported higher backlogs at the end of the second quarter. Industrywide, raw steel capacity utilization reached 82.3% in the week ending Sept. 12, and year-to-date output is up 5.5%. That diversified demand matters amid the escalating debate over data center growth. Data centers are one driver, but not the only one.

Tariffs have also reshaped supply. According to Nucor, the share of imports in U.S. steel consumption fell from 25% in early 2025 to 14% by November.

Wide Spreads Favor Electric Arc Producers

Margins are where the tailwind is most apparent. The spread between hot-rolled coil and Chicago No. 1 busheling has widened to roughly $946 per ton, near its 2021–22 peak. Scrap prices have moved sideways, with Chicago prime grades unchanged for eight consecutive months.

Steel Dynamics credited its earnings increase to wider metal margins, higher realized prices and lower scrap costs. Blast furnace producers face more expensive inputs, including coking coal, which recently traded near $229 per ton.

Nucor's guidance is similar but requires additional context. Second-quarter results included a $130 million raw materials refund and a $61 million Helion valuation gain. Neither item is expected to recur, making the sequential comparison more difficult than it initially appears. Nucor's steel products segment also experienced margin compression as higher steel input costs outpaced selling prices. Still, Nucor expects higher steel mill earnings on stronger average selling prices and stable volumes.

Management is also buying back shares. Nucor repurchased approximately 2.03 million shares during the quarter at an average price of $247.04. Steel Dynamics repurchased $261 million worth of stock.

Guidance Missed Estimates, But the Direction Is Higher

The sell-off appears to be a case of profit-taking, with STLD and NUE up approximately 37% and 50%, respectively, in 2026. The thinking may be that if regulators succeed in slowing the pace of data center construction, it would remove one leg of the stool supporting higher steel prices.

Other risks could also soften prices. Imports have climbed from historic lows this year, and the fall mill outages will eventually end. Labor talks at blast furnace rivals remain unresolved, with Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE: CLF) and the USW extending their contract through Oct. 1. Steel Dynamics reports on Oct. 19, and Nucor follows on Oct. 26. Those reports will show whether guidance was conservative or whether the sell-off has merit.

However, much like oil prices, steel prices are likely to have a higher floor that extends into 2027. That outlook is supported by analysts. Nucor has a consensus price target of $274.79, implying upside of approximately 12%. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase set an even higher price target of $308 for NUE, up from $294 on Sept. 9.

Steel Dynamics has a consensus price target of $258.55, implying upside of approximately 11%. STLD also has higher price targets, including a $300 target from Goldman Sachs.

Chips to Bots: Qualcomm’s Agentic AI Breakout

By Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Originally Published: 9/23/2026.

Wall Street often views Qualcomm Incorporated (NASDAQ: QCOM) through the lens of cyclical smartphone upgrade patterns, overlooking the transformation underway across its product portfolio. By pairing its two-nanometer AI phone chips with the acquisition of PickNik Robotics, Qualcomm is positioning itself to play a central role in both digital and physical edge computing.

This dual-engine expansion could fundamentally reset Qualcomm's growth story as on-device AI scales across consumer and industrial applications.

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While 12-month analyst price targets for QCOM average $204, the company's dividend and share repurchases help limit downside, giving long-term investors an attractive margin of safety during this expansion phase. The market's reluctance to assign QCOM a premium multiple presents a distinct opportunity for investors willing to look beyond near-term handset cycles.

Two-Nanometer Dominance in Premium Smartphones

Qualcomm recently unveiled the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 and the higher-spec Snapdragon 8 Elite Extreme Gen 6. Built on an advanced two-nanometer process node, these chips integrate a custom Oryon CPU, an upgraded Adreno GPU featuring Adreno Neural Fusion and a specialized Hexagon NPU. Neural Fusion helps bridge the gap between traditional graphics rendering and machine-learning tasks, producing smarter graphics while improving battery efficiency and user playtime.

The core investment thesis revolves around the cost of agentic AI. Market consensus continues to underestimate the efficiency gains from running AI agents locally on a device. When software developers rely on cloud hyperscalers for AI workloads, they incur recurring token costs and face latency.

Moving these workloads onto a phone's own chip shifts the compute burden to the device and eliminates those ongoing cloud costs. If Qualcomm's edge chips become essential infrastructure for real-time digital assistants, the hardware could become a baseline requirement rather than merely another iterative upgrade.

Offering two price tiers for its top chips allows Qualcomm to capture higher average selling prices from major Android manufacturers. Early hardware commitments from global manufacturers such as Xiaomi, OnePlus, vivo and OPPO translate technical leadership into a foundation for defensible revenue growth. This pricing power could help shield operating margins from memory-cost inflation, a headwind currently pressuring handset production schedules across the industry.

Weaponizing the PickNik Acquisition

The mobile segment represents only one side of the edge-computing equation. In late September, management announced an agreement to acquire PickNik Robotics, the company that maintains MoveIt, a leading open-source motion-planning framework built on the Robot Operating System.

Securing control of the software layer in physical AI provides a distinct structural advantage. By embedding MoveIt directly into its proprietary Dragonwing robotics platform and Arduino VENTUNO Q hardware, Qualcomm is building a foundational developer-ecosystem moat.

This strategy mirrors the developer lock-in that major technology companies built through proprietary computing layers over the last decade. When engineers train and deploy robots using a specific software environment, switching costs can become prohibitively high.

Combining industrial automation software with advanced silicon pushes Qualcomm deeper into automated logistics, factory robotics and physical machinery. Expanding into these industrial sectors creates a large, non-handset addressable market that diversifies revenue away from phone upgrade cycles and supports long-term margin stability. Hardware margins can naturally stabilize when software integration becomes the primary value driver for end users.

Optical Interconnects: The New Data Center Catalyst

Beyond phones and robots, Qualcomm is methodically reducing its dependence on a limited number of revenue sources. A recent joint demonstration showcased optical die-to-die interconnects designed for hyperscale systems. By partnering with Corning Incorporated (NYSE: GLW) and Lumentum Holdings (NASDAQ: LITE), Qualcomm is expanding its total addressable market to include data center interconnect fabrics. As data centers scale to meet AI demand, traditional copper connections face bandwidth bottlenecks, making optical interconnects a necessary evolution for modern computing infrastructure.

Management also confirmed two custom data center chip programs scheduled to begin generating commercial revenue during the upcoming December quarter. These initiatives could serve as an emerging counterweight to expected client losses. The impending loss of baseband modem revenue as Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) transitions to proprietary chips remains a medium-term drag on chipset volume. Establishing a firm foothold in data centers would provide an important source of top-line replacement for Qualcomm.

The Googlebook PC initiative and broader Snapdragon X platform traction offer additional avenues for entering the high-margin computing market. Taking market share from incumbent x86 chipmakers in the laptop space would add another layer to Qualcomm's revenue-diversification strategy and demonstrate that the company can compete effectively beyond mobile architectures.

Pricing the Pivot: Valuation and Strategic Positioning

Qualcomm shares recently bounced out of an acute pullback, recovering from a drop below $178 to trade near $196. At this level, Qualcomm trades at approximately 22 times trailing earnings and carries a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 25. The company generates nearly $12 per share in operating cash flow and maintains a return on equity above 38%. With a beta of 1.68, the stock is more volatile than the broader market, helping explain its recent wide trading range.

Despite these strong fundamentals, the current consensus price target sits near $204, implying limited upside. Wall Street rates QCOM a consensus Hold, highlighting investors' reluctance to assign the company a premium valuation without clearer top-line acceleration.

This hesitation is partly justified by recent performance, with quarterly revenue contracting approximately 4% year over year in the most recent report. Recent insider transactions, including share sales by the CFO, have also contributed to cautious short-term positioning as the market awaits concrete sales data.

Downside risk appears partially protected by aggressive capital-allocation measures. A $20 billion share-repurchase authorization permits the retirement of nearly 15% of outstanding shares. Combined with an active cash-dividend program yielding nearly 1.8%, these capital returns provide a comfortable margin of safety.

Investors may want to add Qualcomm to their watchlist and monitor whether premium Android pre-orders lift blended chip margins above 21% during the next earnings call. The pace at which its custom data center chips scale will provide the clearest signal of whether this pivot is translating into sustained earnings power.