THE FIGHT FOR CONGRESS
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews
Correspondent
 
As President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden battle for control of the White House, a few dozen other races will determine which party controls Congress, and whether either presidential contender has a chance at passing his agenda.
 
We thought this might be a good time to check in on the fight for Capitol Hill.
 
HOUSE

• 55 seats. Multiple forecasters — the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball — believe roughly 55 of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives are truly competitive, meaning they’re rated as toss-ups or as only leaning toward one party rather than likely or solidly red or blue.
• That’s a drop. In 2018, about 77 seats were in play.
• Which party is more vulnerable? It’s about half and half. Of the 56 competitive races, 28 are now held by Democrats, 27 by Republicans and one by Libertarian Rep. Justin Amash, who was elected as a Republican but left the party in 2019 and will not be running for reelection this year. 
• That’s good news for Democrats. In 2018, they flipped 41 House seats held by Republicans. In 2020, just half of those are considered vulnerable.
• The GOP needs to gain 20 seats to take over the House. There are few, if any, experts who believe that is a possibility given current dynamics, including voter division over  Trump.
• Where are these battleground districts? The vast majority are in the suburbs. They range from outside Houston to outside Phoenix to outside Richmond. 
• Do-over factor. More than a quarter of this year’s competitive races are rematches from 2018, with the same candidates representing each party. In many of those cases, Republicans ousted in 2018 are hoping to take back their seats from the challengers who defeated them.

• 12 competitive races. Forecasters believe 12 Senate seats could swing to either Democrats or Republicans. 
• That is a large number. It is more than a third of the 35 Senate seats on the ballot this year. And of those competitive seats, a notable six are considered pure toss-ups by the Cook Political Report.
• Republicans are on defense. Ten of the 12 vulnerable seats are held by Republicans. We’ve pointed this out before — Republicans have more Senate seats to defend than Democrats overall, and the number considered in the most competitive category has grown.
• Democrats need to gain three or four seats to take control of the chamber: three seats if Biden wins the presidency, with a Vice President Kamala Harris to break any tied party line votes, and four seats if the Trump-Pence team remains in office.
• Trump’s performance matters. In five key states, polls show the Senate race is tracking closely with the presidential race: Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan and North Carolina. In one state, Maine, Biden has a greater lead in the presidential race than does the Democratic Senate candidate in her race. If that lead on the presidential ballot shrinks, it could hurt the Democrat running for Senate and help Republican incumbent Sen. Susan Collins. Polls indicate Democratic Senate candidates in Arizona, Kansas and South Carolina are all doing better in their races than Biden is polling in those states.

• Fund an additional $450 per week in unemployment benefits. An emergency addition, authorized by Trump, of $300-$400 per week is set to run out this week or next.
• Extend the Paycheck Protection Program for small businesses
• $500 billion in new money for state and local governments to help with recovery
• $145 billion for child care and schools
• Money for food aid, farmers, the postal service and the election

Could this be a breakthrough? It’s a longshot, but as Rep. Josh Gottheimer, D-N.J., told us today, “People are hurting. … This is a final push to try to get talks started again.”


FIVE OVERLOOKED POLITICAL STORIES FROM THE PAST WEEK
By Ian Couzens, @iancouzenz
Politics production assistant
 
Pence to attend event hosted by QAnon backers -  Sept. 9. Caryn and Michael Borland, the hosts of the Montana fundraiser, have shared memes and retweeted posts about the QAnon conspiracy theory, which baselessly posits that the president is fighting a cabal of satan-worshiping pedophiles inside the government who are running a global sex-trafficking ring.  Why it Matters:  Trump, the White House and his campaign have embraced adherents of the conspiracy theory, which is now gaining a foothold in the Republican party through people like Marjorie Taylor Green, a congressional candidate in Georgia who is expected to win her race and take a seat in the House in November. -- The Associated Press
 
Professor who has questioned climate science hired at NOAA - Sept.12. Critics of the hiring of  professor David Legates point to the fact that he has repeatedly disputed sound science linking climate change to human activity. Why it matters: At a time when the West Coast is facing unprecedented wildfires and human-caused climate change has become generally accepted science, there are concerns that Legates’ denial of science could impact the legitimacy of the information coming out of the NOAA, which is tasked with warning of dangerous weather and conducting climate and environmental research, among other things. -- The Hill
 
Mormons rejected Trump as blasphemous. Now he likely can’t win without them. - Sept. 13. Mormons were once one of the most loyal GOP voting blocs in the country, but citing Trump’s harsh language and policies, a large number of them split with the Republican nominee in 2016. Now the Trump camp has launched a covert campaign to court the much-needed voting bloc. Why its Matters: The key battleground states of Arizona and Nevada are home to roughly half a million members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. If Trump can reach the same levels of support among Mormon voters as previous Republican candidates, that could amount to tens of thousands of votes and make or break the race for him in those states. -- Politico 
 
‘This is f---ing crazy’: Florida Latinos swamped by wild conspiracy theories - Sept. 14. Spanish-speaking residents of South Florida have been targeted by disinformation, which many believe is already hindering Biden's chance to grow support among Latino voters in a state where the presidential race is neck-and-neck. Why it matters: Florida has the most electoral votes of any battleground state. Large-scale surveys of Latino voters, who make up roughly 17 percent of the state’s electorate, show Biden underperforming among this typically Democratic-leaning segment of the electorate. -- Politico 
 
Wisconsin court rejects Green Party bid to be added to ballot, allowing mailing to resume - Sept. 14. The question of whether to add Green party candidate Howi Hawkins to the ballot stemmed  from a dispute over whether his vice presidential pick was eligible after he listed the wrong address on thousands of nominating signatures. Why it Matters: Democrats feared that Hawkins would draw away Democratic votes from Biden, thus boosting Trump in an important battleground state he won by fewer than 23,000 votes in 2016. -- The Los Angeles Times

 
#POLITICSTRIVIA
By Kate Grumke, @KGrumke
Politics producer
 
On this day in 1981, the Senate Judiciary Committee approved the nomination of Sandra Day O’Connor to the Supreme Court. She was confirmed by a full Senate vote on September 21, making her the first woman justice to serve on the nation’s highest court, nearly 60 years after the first appointment, in 1922, of a woman judge to a state’s highest court.
 
Our question: Which state was the first to have a woman serve on its highest court?
 
Send your answers to [email protected] or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.
 
Last week, we asked: On this day in 1892, the Pledge of Allegiance was first published. The original version did not include the phrase “under God.” In what year was “under God” officially added to the Pledge of Allegiance?
 
The answer: 1954
 
Congress added the phrase “under God” during the Cold War, reportedly to draw contrast between the U.S. and communist countries. The pledge has faced a number of challenges in the courts, including one over the phrase “under God.” In 2014, the Massachusetts Supreme Court ruled that the phrase did not violate the equal protection clause in the state’s constitution.
 
Congratulations to our winners: Ed Witt and Lisa Wilson!
 
Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your inbox next week.