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Qualcomm’s Discount Could Vanish If Its AI Bet Pays Off

Written by Sam Quirke. Posted: 9/16/2026.

There’s a certain irony in a stock that has just rallied sharply still being written off, yet that’s exactly where chipmaker Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) finds itself right now. After a brutal 44% slide through much of the summer, its shares staged an impressive comeback, climbing around 30% since the start of August.

They’re currently trading around $187, having recovered much, but not all, of the ground lost in that punishing sell-off.

Despite that recovery, the stock still trades at a valuation that looks remarkably cheap for a company at the heart of the technology boom. In addition, even some of the more cautious voices on Wall Street seem to think Qualcomm’s shares are worth more than their current price.

The question, then, is whether the shares look cheap for a reason. As has so often been the case with Qualcomm, the answer depends on how much faith investors place in the company’s ability to reinvent itself.

A Valuation That's Hard to Ignore

Starting with the numbers, it’s easy to see why the bulls might view Qualcomm as a bargain. With a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of just 22, it trades well below NVIDIA Corp’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) 27, Broadcom Inc’s (NASDAQ: AVGO) 44, and Advanced Micro Devices Inc’s (NASDAQ: AMD) 134.

It’s also below its own P/E ratio of 34 at the end of last year, despite the company making meaningful progress on several fronts since then. The bulls argue that the market still values Qualcomm as little more than a maker of smartphone chips—a mature, slow-growing business—while assigning almost no value to its ambitions in faster-growing corners of the industry. If those ambitions bear fruit, today’s price could look like a bargain.

Several analysts share this view. Rosenblatt Securities, for example, recently reiterated its Buy rating on Qualcomm shares and maintained a $235 price target, implying around 20% upside.

How Qualcomm Could Reinvent Itself

The bull case centers on diversification: Qualcomm can reduce its reliance on smartphones and expand into faster-growing markets. The most eye-catching opportunity is a foothold in AI data centers, where last week’s news of a deal with Amazon Web Services is the latest sign of progress toward what could become a lucrative new revenue stream.

Beyond that, the company has been building its presence in cars and connected devices, markets with long product cycles and plenty of room to grow. As vehicles become computers on wheels and everyday objects gain intelligence, Qualcomm’s expertise in low-power, connected computing gives it a credible shot at building a much broader business.

Tying these efforts together is the rise of on-device AI. Qualcomm’s chips are well-suited to running AI directly on phones, cars and industrial equipment rather than in a distant data center. If that becomes the battleground many expect, the company could command more valuable chip content in every device.

The Catch Behind the Discount

Set against that promise are significant risks, which explain why the stock isn’t valued more richly. The biggest is Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), one of Qualcomm’s most important customers, which is moving to develop its own modem chips in-house. That shift is expected to strip away a major portion of Qualcomm’s revenue in the coming years and may do so before its newer businesses are large enough to fill the gap.

The near-term picture is hardly rosy, either. Qualcomm remains heavily exposed to the sluggish Android phone market, particularly in a weak China, while rival MediaTek (OTCMKTS: MDTKF) is pushing aggressively into the premium handset space that has traditionally been Qualcomm’s bread and butter. In other words, a recovery in phone-related revenue is far from guaranteed.

A Bargain Worth the Wait?

On the one hand, Qualcomm offers a tempting proposition for investors with patience and a long enough time horizon. Its low valuation, growing foothold in AI data centers and expansion beyond handsets give it a credible path to shedding its image as merely a phone-chip supplier. On that view, the market may be too focused on the risks and too dismissive of the opportunity.

The catch—and it’s a significant one—is timing. The bull case rests on Qualcomm’s newer ventures scaling up quickly enough to outrun the looming loss of Apple’s business.

Until there is hard evidence that they can, a degree of caution is understandable. The stock’s MarketBeat consensus rating of Hold captures that balance.

Still, the recent rally shows that the market is warming to the story. With even cautious analysts pointing to upside, the shares hardly look expensive.

For those willing to back the reinvention and wait, Qualcomm may prove to be one of the more rewarding bets in the chip sector.