Hello,

Welcome to our flagship newsletter, MarketBeat Daily Ratings.

We'll deliver the latest "Buy" and "Sell" ratings from Wall Street's top-rated analysts directly to your inbox each morning.

But first, we need you to do two quick things:

1. Hit reply, and send a simple "Yes." Just one word. This tells Google (and other emails providers) that you actually want to get our newsletter.

2. After that, this link to confirm your subscription. That will tell us that you received our welcome email and that we should start sending your daily report. 

Confirm your subscription here.

After you have completed these two steps, we would like to gift you a free copy of one of our most popular investing reports: 7 Stocks to Buy and Hold Forever. You can download the report with this link.

Thank you again for subscribing. We look forward to being an important part of your investing journey

Matthew Paulson
Founder and CEO, MarketBeat.

P.S. If you didn’t intend to subscribe, no problem—you can unsubscribe with this link.

(ARReply-161)

SpaceX Defies Gravity With a Nasdaq-100 Double-Weighting Boost

Reported by Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Originally Published: 9/15/2026.

For investors tracking technology trends and aerospace investments, a notable event is unfolding on Wall Street.

On Friday, Sept. 18, index-tracking funds will make one of the quarter's largest programmatic portfolio adjustments. As post-IPO lockups expire and more of SpaceX's (NASDAQ: SPCX) shares become freely tradable, the company's weighting in the Nasdaq-100 will more than double at the quarterly rebalance.

They don't need to remove Trump. They only need this. (Ad)

A little-known law from 1974 could give Democrats a new way to reshape economic policy without removing Trump from office, according to economist Addison Wiggin.

The law could open the door to major new spending, rising inflation, and sharp market swings before the November 3rd midterms.

See the five steps experts recommend to prepare before midterms

For individual investors, this adjustment provides a transparent window into how modern markets function. Index funds such as Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ), with a market capitalization of more than $470 billion, must allocate billions of dollars at the closing bell, regardless of near-term headlines or market sentiment. Examining how this required capital reallocation interacts with the expanding space economy can help investors separate short-term trading mechanics from fundamental business value.

Nasdaq-100 Lifts the Launchpad for SpaceX

To understand this capital reallocation, investors need to examine the Nasdaq-100 Index's governing framework. When SpaceX completed its initial public offering on June 12, 2026, raising $75 billion at $135 per share, it entered public trading with a closely held share base.

The index administrator applies a float-capping rule when the public float comprises less than 33.3% of total shares. Under this guideline, the index calculates the weighting based on three times the freely tradable float rather than the company's full market capitalization.

When SpaceX joined the benchmark on July 7, 2026, this constraint capped its representation at about 1.28%, placing it 19th in index weight despite a market valuation near $2 trillion.

That index cap has now widened. Two post-offering lockup periods expired on Aug. 6 and Aug. 20, releasing more than 1.2 billion shares. Major venture backers and long-term funds held onto their stakes, allowing the tradable supply to expand without triggering secondary-market selling. This increase in float met index eligibility rules, lifting SpaceX's projected weighting to about 2.82% ahead of the official rebalancing on Monday, Sept. 21.

For index-tracking exchange-traded funds managing about $1.7 trillion benchmarked to the Nasdaq-100, this rebalance is automatic. Funds must buy between $15.5 billion and $22 billion of SpaceX shares, concentrating purchase orders during the closing cross on Sept. 18 to limit tracking error.

Commercial Space Reaches Escape Velocity

Index rebalancing may drive short-term buying and selling, but the commercial space sector is riding a much longer wave of growth. The orbital economy is shifting from experimental rocket flights to vital global infrastructure. Modern businesses and government agencies increasingly treat low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite networks as indispensable communications utilities.

National security procurement provides an ongoing foundation for this industry expansion. Modernization initiatives within the Space Development Agency (SDA) consistently direct defense capital toward distributed LEO constellations for missile tracking and encrypted tactical communications. Commercial direct-to-cell connectivity continues to expand the market by connecting ordinary smartphones directly to space-based infrastructure.

Orbital edge computing is emerging as another growth area for the industry. Space systems are beginning to incorporate dedicated data processors, including systems planned around NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) architecture.

Processing data in orbit before downlinking reduces signal latency and creates higher-margin software business models. For investors focused on long-term themes, the ongoing buildout of space logistics and communications represents a compelling trend.

Gravity Catches Up With Operating Momentum

Assessing an individual business requires looking beyond broad sector tailwinds. SpaceX achieved operational progress in the second quarter of 2026, posting $7.81 billion in revenue, an increase of 91.9% year over year (YOY).

The company reported an earnings per share (EPS) loss of 9 cents, ahead of analyst expectations for a 26-cent loss. Balance sheet metrics remain steady, supported by a current ratio of 5.12, a quick ratio of 4.99 and a conservative debt-to-equity ratio of 0.29.

Investors should weigh these operational milestones against a demanding valuation. Based on annual sales of about $18.67 billion, SpaceX trades at a price-to-sales multiple of roughly 106x. With 10-year Treasury yields hovering near 4.79%, high-multiple stocks face valuation compression if broader market multiples move lower.

Capital expenditures also remain substantial. Maintaining high launch frequencies, manufacturing Starlink user hardware and funding Starship flight testing all require significant capital. Until operating cash flow comfortably outpaces infrastructure spending, SpaceX shares will remain sensitive to broader shifts in technology valuations.

Space Traffic Ahead: Dodging Reentry Heat on Rebalance Day

Mandatory index buying against a closely held share base has led some market analysts to anticipate a mechanical price surge heading into Sept. 18. Even with substantial passive capital flows on the horizon, historical market patterns suggest caution toward front-running strategies.

When SpaceX entered the index on July 7, passive indexers absorbed about $4.3 billion in forced purchases, yet SpaceX shares fell more than 6% that day. Institutional liquidity providers and short-term traders who accumulated shares before the event used the closing liquidity to unwind their positions. A similar situation could occur if speculative buying becomes overcrowded before Friday's closing bell.

Future share unlocks introduce another layer of supply. More than 2.3 billion restricted shares are scheduled to exit lockup restrictions in late October and mid-November, following third-quarter results. This substantial volume of potential stock could limit upward price progress beyond the current $146 to $152 trading range.

Charting Your Course in the Orbital Tech Frontier

The upcoming rebalancing event provides a useful opportunity to study market mechanics in real time. Investors with a constructive outlook on the space economy might explore diversified aerospace contractors or satellite equipment suppliers trading at lower valuation multiples than SpaceX.

For investors interested in SpaceX, a patient stance may be prudent. Waiting for the market to absorb the Sept. 18 index-rebalance volume and observing how SpaceX navigates its autumn lockup expirations should provide a clearer, more balanced view of long-term entry levels.