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Friday, September 25, 2026 • Daily Market Alert

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Explore Today's Market News from Behind the Markets:

Bond yields just hit their highest level since 2007. Meta just jumped 4.5% to
a 52-week high.

The Numbers That Matter

* Meta closed Thursday at $777.59, up $33.49 (+4.50%), after trading as high
as $779.82, a new 52-week high. That came despite the stock opening the morning
down about 2% in premarket trading.
* The 10-year Treasury yield rose about 9 basis points to roughly 5.21%, its
highest level since 2007, after touching 5.227% during the session. The 30-year
yield climbed to 5.489%.
* The S&P 500 slipped 1.90 points (−0.02%) to 7,704.13, the Dow fell 161.61
(−0.31%) to 51,349.98, and the Nasdaq edged up 3.34 (+0.01%) to 26,939.37. At
its worst point the Nasdaq had been down almost 230 points.
* Oracle fell $5.02 (−3.47%) to $139.54 after sending a "force majeure"
notice on its Project Jupiter data center in New Mexico.
* Costco beat on both lines after the bell. EPS came in at $6.75 against
$6.53 expected, on revenue of $95.72 billion against $94.89 billion. The stock
barely moved in early after-hours trading.
The Day the Bond Market Lost the Argument

By every textbook rule, Thursday should have been ugly for tech.

The 10-year yield pushed to a fresh 19-year high for the second straight day.
New York Fed President John Williams called another rate hike by year-end
"reasonable," and traders priced roughly a two-in-three chance of a
quarter-point increase in October.

High yields are supposed to crush expensive growth stocks, and for most of
the morning they did. Most investors are watching the Fed, but the
professionals are watching the bond market, and the bond market was flashing
red.

Then the selling stopped. By early afternoon the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were back
to even, helped by reports that U.S. and Iranian negotiators were discussing a
deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Oil kept rising anyway: WTI traded
near $94.76 (+2.82%) late in the day and Brent near $107.03 (+3.83%). The VIX
rose 3.23% to 15.67.

The indexes finished flat. One stock ran the table.

Why Meta Didn't Care About Rates

The reversal came from a wave of Wall Street endorsements after Wednesday
night's Meta Connect event. Tigress, Raymond James, JPMorgan and Citizens all
raised their price targets on Thursday, following Cantor Fitzgerald and KeyBanc
a day earlier.

All of it comes back to one product: Muse, Meta's personal AI agent, which
launched this month. JPMorgan's Doug Anmuth wrote that Muse "has the potential
to become the most widely used consumer AI application since ChatGPT." The
numbers so far:

* 2.8 million downloads in the U.S. and Canada in the first 12 days, and a
No. 1 spot on Apple's App Store
* More than 2,000 connected apps in two weeks, including integrations with
Walmart, Best Buy, Sephora and Wayfair
* About 300,000 new downloads a day, according to Raymond James, which
estimates Muse could eventually generate close to $50 billion in annual revenue
on no more than about $12 billion in yearly costs
At Connect, Mark Zuckerberg also unveiled the $1,299 Meta VR Glasses and Muse
Charm, a handheld device built around the agent.

Evercore ISI summed up the shift: "Just like GOOGL in 2025, what we are
witnessing is a transition from a perceived 'AI Loser' to an 'AI Winner.'" Meta
is now up about 30% in September alone, on pace for its best month since July
2013. Of the 63 analysts who cover it, 57 rate it a buy.

When investors believe a company has found a new revenue stream, a 5.2%
10-year yield doesn't matter much. Right now the market thinks it has found the
kind of lead that decides the AI race.

The Other Side of the AI Trade

Oracle showed what happens when the story runs the other way.

Bloomberg reported that Oracle sent a force majeure notice to the developer
of Project Jupiter, a unit of Blue Owl Capital. The goal is to let Oracle put
off rent payments if the campus fails to come online in 2028 as planned. Oracle
says the project "remains on our schedule."

Lenders don't sound so sure. According to Bloomberg, debt tied to the project
is already trading below 90 cents on the dollar, and a gauge of Oracle's credit
risk hit a record high on Thursday.

Both companies are spending heavily on AI. Meta is being rewarded for showing
a product people actually use. Oracle is being punished for depending on
buildings, power and permits that may not arrive on time.

Costco Beats. Nobody Blinks.

After the bell, Costco (NASDAQ: COST) posted fiscal fourth-quarter net sales
of $93.9 billion (+11.2%) and EPS of $6.75, up 15% from $5.87 a year earlier.
That figure includes a one-time benefit of $0.15 a share from tariff refunds.
Total comparable sales rose 9.4%, or 6.7% excluding gasoline and currency
effects. Digital sales jumped 19.5%.

The stock closed the regular session at $896.48 (−0.91%) and moved only
slightly in early after-hours trading. Options had priced in a move of about
3.4% either way. Even after the beat, Costco trades roughly 17% below its May
peak, because at around 40 times forward earnings, meeting expectations is not
enough to lift the stock.

The Rest of the Tape

GRAIL jumped 15.38% to $125.21 after an FDA advisory panel backed its Galleri
multi-cancer blood test, the promise of one tube of blood screening for dozens
of cancers. Everpure rose 11.15% on upbeat long-term revenue guidance. MGM
Resorts plunged 10.99% to $33.69 after Barry Diller's People Inc. withdrew its
roughly $48.30-a-share buyout proposal.

In Washington, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S.–China trade
truce has been extended to January 10, as Chinese President Xi Jinping held
White House talks with President Trump.

What Lands Next

Friday brings the University of Michigan's final September consumer sentiment
reading, the last major data point of the week. Its inflation-expectations
numbers feed straight into the October hike debate.

Costco's earnings call will be picked apart overnight for membership renewal
rates and tariff commentary.

Micron reports September 30, and the September jobs report lands next week.
Then comes the Fed's October 28 decision, where the market now leans toward
another hike.

Thursday showed the split clearly. The bond market is pricing a Fed that
isn't done. The stock market is paying up only for companies that can show
growth. Meta can show it. Oracle, for now, can't.

Continue Reading →
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