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Today's Market Update For You




Flash PMIs Drop Today at 1:45pm. The Eurozone Reading Is Already Described as
"Stagflation Alarm Bells." The U.S. Manufacturing Forecast Is 53.6. Xi Is
Landing While the Data Prints.




Written by Harlan Talcott



 




1:45pm ET Today

* The S&P Global flash PMI readings for the U.S., EU, UK, and Japan release at
1:45pm ET today, Wednesday September 23 — the first activity data that captures
September's economic conditions, after the Fed's September 16 hike, the Saudi
pipeline shutdown, Brent's peak above $109, and the subsequent diplomatic-week
oil pullback. The U.S. flash manufacturing PMI forecast is53.6 (prior: 53.9,
published September 1). The U.S. services PMI prior reading was56.5 (August) —
the strongest reading since 2022. U.S. composite output was running at56.0 in
August — a 52-month high per S&P Global's August release.
* The Eurozone flash PMI has already signaled distress. S&P Global's chief
business economist Chris Williamson described the reading in blunt terms:"The
flash Eurozone PMI is ringing stagflation alarm bells as the war in the Middle
East drives prices sharply higher while stifling growth." Specifically: firms'
costs are rising at the fastest rate in over three years, supplier delays have
jumped to their highest since mid-2022 from Hormuz shipping disruptions, output
has slowed to near-stagnation, business confidence has slumped. Germany's
manufacturing sector is the only significant positive — expanding at its
fastest pace in over four years. France fell. The rest of the Eurozone posted
only slight expansion.
* The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI has been running in expansion territory for
eight consecutive months: the August final reading was54.6 (above the 55.2
forecast). July was55.6 — a strong reading. The flash PMI and the ISM measure
different survey panels with some overlap; the flash PMI typically leads the
final ISM reading by two weeks. A flash PMI at or above forecast today confirms
that September's economic activity has held up despite the rate and energy
headwinds. A miss — particularly in services, which has been the economy's
strongest component — would be the first data signal that the AI-and-services
economy is beginning to slow under the accumulated weight of higher rates and
higher fuel costs.
The flash PMI data drops at 1:45pm ET today while Xi Jinping is arriving at
Andrews Air Force Base and markets are holding near Tuesday's levels. The
combination is unusual: the same afternoon contains the first activity data of
September — which will confirm or challenge the bifurcated economy thesis — and
the arrival of the leader who controls China's rare earth supply chain, the
primary buyer of Iranian crude, and the counterparty to the trade truce that
expires in 48 days. One of those events is scheduled at 1:45. The other is
landing whenever Air Force Two touches down. Both are moving the same markets.
"Stagflation Alarm Bells" — What the Eurozone PMI Already Confirmed
Stagflation — simultaneous elevated inflation and stagnant growth — is the
economic outcome that monetary policy handles worst. Rate hikes address
inflation by cooling demand; they also cool growth. In a stagflationary
environment, the central bank is using the same tool to address two problems
that require opposite responses: tightening to suppress inflation while the
economy needs accommodation. The Eurozone flash PMI's "stagflation alarm bells"
characterization is S&P Global's description of an economy where energy-cost
inflation from the Hormuz disruption has pushed input costs to a three-year
high while simultaneously suppressing demand — services near-stagnation, new
orders in renewed decline. The ECB hiked September 11 into this environment.
The BoE held last Thursday citing "little evidence of second-round effects."
The data is telling those two central banks different things simultaneously.
The U.S. Eurozone divergence heading into today's PMI is the analytical
tension. European businesses are reporting supply chain delays at their worst
since mid-2022 — specifically linked to Hormuz shipping disruptions — and cost
inflation at a three-year peak. The U.S. economy ran composite PMI of56.0 in
August — the fastest since April 2022. The bifurcation is not only within the
U.S. (AI economy vs. rate-sensitive economy) — it is between the U.S. and
Europe, where the same Iran war produces the same energy price shock but
different economic resilience outcomes. The U.S. is an energy producer; Europe
is an energy importer. The same Brent price is a revenue gain for U.S.
producers and a cost shock for European manufacturers. Today's flash PMI will
begin to quantify how that structural difference is showing up in September's
activity data, post-hike, post-pipeline-shutdown.


📊 Flash PMI Preview — What to Watch at 1:45pm ET

Reading Prior Forecast / Signal
US Manufacturing PMI 53.9 53.6 forecast · miss below 53 = new concern
US Services PMI 56.5 No consensus available · any drop below 54 notable
Eurozone Composite Near-stagnation "Stagflation alarm bells" · costs 3-yr high
· supplier delays 4-yr high
Key watch US services holding above 55 = AI economy thesis intact · US
services below 52 = first crack signal




 

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Germany's Manufacturing Bright Spot — What It Shows About the Energy Trade-off
Germany's manufacturing PMI expanded at its fastest pace in over four years
in the September flash reading — a bright spot inside an otherwise
stagflationary Eurozone composite. The explanation is structural, not cyclical:
Germany's manufacturing sector is heavily export-oriented, with significant
order books from Asia and the U.S. for capital goods and industrial equipment.
When global industrial demand is strong — as it has been through the AI
infrastructure buildout and the energy supply chain restructuring — German
manufacturing can benefit even as the domestic consumption environment tightens
from higher energy costs. Germany's planned gasoline tax cut of 14 cents per
litre — reported by Bild and Newsquawk earlier this week — is the fiscal policy
instrument designed to provide domestic demand support that the ECB's rate hike
cannot. The combination of export-driven manufacturing strength and government
fiscal stimulus is what separates Germany from France, where output has
continued to fall in the same September environment.
The broader Eurozone stagflation dynamic is the baseline against which the
U.S. September flash PMI is being compared. If the U.S. composite PMI holds
near its August level of56.0, the divergence between U.S. and European economic
performance in September 2026 will be the widest since the immediate
post-pandemic period. That divergence has a specific cause: the U.S. is an
energy producer benefiting from elevated Brent prices in its domestic
production economics, while Europe is an energy importer absorbing elevated
Brent prices as an input cost. Both economies face the same headline Iran war
energy shock. The structural position of each economy determines whether that
shock is inflationary but growth-supportive (U.S.) or stagflationary (Europe).
Today's flash PMI data will quantify which characterization September's data
supports.
The October CPI Connection — Why Today's Flash PMI Is the October 27
Meeting's Opening Act
The FOMC meets October 27–28 — 34 days from today. Between now and then, the
committee will receive two critical data releases: the September flash PMI
today, and the September CPI on or around October 11 (the final release date
for September CPI data). The flash PMI provides the activity data — whether the
economy is expanding at the rate the AI-economy thesis predicts or slowing at
the rate the rate-sensitive sectors have been suggesting. The CPI provides the
price data — whether September's partial oil price pullback (Brent below $100
for part of the week) has begun reducing the energy component of headline
inflation, and whether services inflation is continuing to broaden from energy
into the underlying economy as Kashkari characterized on Monday.
LPL Financial chief economist Jeffrey Roach's framing — that the Fed "has
conditioned its inflation outlook on oil markets settling down" — makes today's
flash PMI a two-part data event. The activity reading (manufacturing and
services PMI) tells the committee whether the economic growth that supports the
current rate path is intact. The price subcomponents of the PMI — input cost
inflation and selling price inflation — will be the first September data on
whether cost pressures are accelerating or moderating from the prior month's
levels. The July flash PMI reported selling prices rising at the fastest rate
in nearly four years and input cost inflation at a 14-month high, with
companies citing "elevated energy and shipping prices, tariffs and broad-based
supplier price rises." If September's flash PMI shows those pressures
persisting at similar rates — consistent with Brent spending most of September
above$100 — the committee's October 27 decision will be moving toward a live
hike rather than a confirmed pause. Today's data is the opening data point in
that 34-day sequence.

Sources: S&P Global · Investing.com · Newsquawk · Reuters · CNBC




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