Anthropic Can’t Go Public Yet. Buy Alphabet Instead. Google Cloud’s 82% growth
and a $514 billion backlog make it the cleanest way to own enterprise AI
spending while Anthropic’s IPO waits.͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌
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September 21, 2026
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Anthropic Can’t Go Public Yet. Buy Alphabet Instead.
Google Cloud’s 82% growth and a $514 billion backlog make it the cleanest way
to own enterprise AI spending while Anthropic’s IPO waits.




Reuters reported Friday, citing three sources, that Anthropic is weighing
whether to release a new AI model to blunt OpenAI's enterprise momentum. The
timing is awkward. The deliberations come less than three weeks after CEO Dario
Amodei published a roughly 3,800-word essay on September 12, 2026 calling on
the global AI community to slow the pace of developing model capabilities.
Meanwhile, Anthropic’s IPO timing remains uncertain, with Reuters reporting in
early September that the company could complete a listing days before the U.S.
midterm elections in November 2026.



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For investors who wanted Anthropic exposure, that delay matters. Anthropic's
annualized revenue run rate surpassed $65 billion by the end of July 2026,
while OpenAI's has been reported at more than $40 billion in the same period.
The growth is real. The public float is not, at least not yet. So the question
becomes: which listed company gives you the most direct claim on that same
enterprise AI spending today?

The case for Microsoft is intuitive. Microsoft has disclosed that it holds an
investment in OpenAI Group PBC valued at approximately $135 billion, and Azure
remains a primary cloud partner for OpenAI workloads. Microsoft's AI business
reached an annual revenue run rate of $37 billion, up 123% from a year ago.
Azure grew 43% in the most recent quarter, and Microsoft said Azure surpassed
$100 billion in annual revenue for the first time in its fiscal year ended June
2026. But Microsoft's exposure to AI labs is also its risk. The bear case is
that those investments may never generate returns proportional to their cost,
particularly given OpenAI concentration risk. And it is harder to verify claims
of developer tooling share shifts across a fast-moving market, especially when
adoption and usage vary by survey and customer segment.



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Amazon's situation is structurally compelling but financially messier. AWS net
sales increased 37% year over year to $42.2 billion in Q2 2026, which Amazon
described as its fastest growth in 18 quarters. Amazon also said its AI and
Chips businesses each eclipsed run rates of more than $25 billion. Amazon has
also committed up to $25 billion into Anthropic, with Anthropic pledging to
spend more than $100 billion on AWS technologies over the next decade. The
problem: the investment cycle is large enough that free cash flow can be
volatile around capex, which clouds the near-term picture for an investor who
wants clean earnings leverage.

Alphabet is the pick. Google Cloud revenue grew 82% year over year to $24.77
billion in Q2 2026, while Cloud operating income rose to $8.81 billion from
$2.83 billion a year earlier. That operating income expansion is the number the
other two hyperscalers cannot match right now. Cloud backlog crossed $500
billion for the first time, reaching $514 billion, with management expecting
just over half to be recognized as revenue within 24 months. Nearly 90% of the
Fortune 100 are using Gemini Enterprise. That is not a slide-deck metric; it
reflects structural embedding in enterprise workflows that takes years for a
competitor to displace.

Alphabet also holds a direct equity stake in Anthropic, so the irony is
genuine: the stock most insulated from Anthropic's IPO delay is also the one
that benefits when Anthropic's valuation rises.



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What Could Go Wrong

Alphabet raised full-year 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $195 billion to
$205 billion, and free cash flow turned negative in Q2. Investors have already
reacted badly to that news once. If Cloud growth decelerates before the backlog
converts into recognized revenue, the valuation case weakens quickly. Claims
about specific model-level enterprise spending shares attributed to Ramp,
including product names and exact percentages, could not be verified in Ramp’s
published AI Index materials and should be treated cautiously until
corroborated by primary reporting or Ramp’s own release.

The Bottom Line

Anthropic's IPO uncertainty removes the most direct route into the enterprise
AI race. Of the three listed alternatives, Alphabet combines the fastest Cloud
revenue growth, the highest Cloud operating margin among its peers, and a
backlog large enough to provide genuine revenue visibility. The capex
commitment is large and the free cash flow pressure is real, but the return on
that spending is already showing up in quarterly results in a way it has not
yet for Amazon. That is why Alphabet stands above the others today.



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