Before you buy anything, sell these three. Palantir. A terrific company priced
at roughly 100 times all the money it collects in a year. It owns none of the
machinery this boom runs on. Not a watt of power. Not an inch of wire. Not a
pound of metal.




Sep 21, 2026 | Browser View
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Before you buy anything, sell these three.

Palantir. A terrific company priced at roughly 100 times all the money it
collects in a year. It owns none of the machinery this boom runs on. Not a watt
of power. Not an inch of wire. Not a pound of metal.

Super Micro. Best stock in the S&P 500 in 2023, up 246% in a single year. It
keeps 15 to 17 cents of every dollar it sells.

Nvidia keeps about 75.

Apple. The most valuable product company on Earth, and dead last among the
tech giants on power infrastructure. Roughly a tenth of what Microsoft, Google
and Amazon spend. It reportedly pays a direct rival about a billion dollars a
year for the intelligence behind its own assistant.

None of them are bad businesses.

All three are customers.

They pay the toll. They don't collect it.

Dylan Jovine found the company that collects. Free.

See who owns the toll booth >>
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"The Buck Stops Here,"

Kelly Maguire

Behind the Markets


Bonus edition: Thursday's Trump-Xi summit has its own risk axis entirely
separate from Yemen and oil — rare earths, AI safety, Taiwan, and now Iran
sanctions all converge in one room.



SPECIAL DISPATCH — Bonus Edition

The Other Summit This Week: What's Actually on the Table With Xi
While this week's headlines have centered on Yemen and Iran, Thursday's
Trump-Xi summit in Washington carries its own distinct set of risks for
American investors — a tariff-truce extension, a rare-earths-for-tariffs trade,
an unresolved AI-safety divide inside Washington itself, and a Taiwan dispute
China has reportedly threatened could cancel the meeting entirely.
Executive Assessment
President Xi Jinping is due to arrive near Washington on September 23 ahead of
a White House summit on September 24 — the third meeting between the two
leaders since Trump's second term began. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent
opened preliminary talks in New York on September 20. The agenda spans
trade-truce extension, a likely rare-earths-for-tariffs exchange, AI-safety
principles, and Taiwan — the last of which China has reportedly threatened
could derail the summit entirely if new US arms sales to Taiwan proceed. Four
American tech CEOs — Jeff Bezos, Sundar Pichai, Sam Altman, and Jensen Huang —
are expected to attend an associated dinner, alongside Microsoft's Satya
Nadella, with several Chinese technology executives reportedly under
consideration to join.
The Trade Truce Question
The core deliverable under negotiation is an extension of the 2025 Busan trade
truce, with the US reportedly seeking a six-month-to-one-year extension while
China is said to be pushing for an extension through the remainder of Trump's
term. A roughly $30 billion basket of goods for a proposed "Board of Trade"
mechanism remains under negotiation, with about 10 product categories still
disputed; a parallel "Board of Investment" discussion has reportedly stalled.
China's August exports rose 25% year-over-year, with roughly $119 billion more
in goods sold to the US than purchased — a trade imbalance likely to feature
prominently in the talks.
The Rare-Earths Leverage Point
China's dominance in critical-mineral refining, essential to both AI
infrastructure and the broader energy transition, remains the clearest point of
Chinese leverage in these talks. Analysts expect the tariff-truce extension to
be traded directly against continued rare-earth export access, with
export-license agreements and possible guardrails on future control mechanisms
among the concrete outcomes to watch for.
The AI Divide — Inside Washington, Not Just Across the Table
A parallel US-China AI dialogue was recently announced by Bessent and Chinese
Vice Premier He Lifeng, but the more immediately relevant division may be
inside the US technology sector itself: reporting indicates Anthropic's
leadership has advocated "pacing the frontier" on AI development, while
Nvidia's Jensen Huang has opposed any broad slowdown, and Trump himself has
signaled opposition to additional AI regulation, citing concerns about ceding
advantage to China. Diplomatic observers expect any agreement on AI safety
rules at Thursday's summit to go no further than broad, non-binding principles.
Where This Intersects the Iran Story
One thread genuinely connects this summit to this week's other coverage:
reported US proposals for secondary sanctions targeting Iran's financial
"enablers" could implicate Chinese firms that continue doing business with
Tehran, giving Beijing a direct stake in how the US-Iran diplomatic track this
publication has covered elsewhere this week ultimately resolves.
The Risk Axis
This sits on the Trade and Technology-Policy axes primarily, with a secondary
Geopolitical-axis exposure through Taiwan and the Iran-sanctions overlap — a
genuinely different risk cluster from the Middle East-driven Geopolitical and
Energy risks dominating this week's other editions.
What Would Move Markets
A confirmed tariff-truce extension with concrete purchase targets in
agriculture, energy, or aircraft would be constructive for risk assets broadly;
a Taiwan-related rupture serious enough to threaten the summit's occurrence
would be the clearest negative surprise, given China's reported sensitivity on
new US arms sales.
Next Verifiable Checkpoint
Whether Xi's arrival and the September 24 summit proceed as scheduled without
a Taiwan-related cancellation threat materializing, and any confirmed terms on
the tariff-truce extension or rare-earths arrangement to emerge from Thursday's
talks.



At Global Risk Axis, we write for people who think for themselves. Nothing
here replaces your own judgment — regulations prevent us from making it
personal, but that was never the point anyway.

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