A Message From TradeSmith

Worst News for Stocks in 50 Years

Wall Street’s declared what could be the worst news for the U.S. stock market in 50 years.

If Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are right... this won't be like the crashes we're used to. What's about to hit America next could keep your portfolio in the red for 10 years or longer - unless you make a big change now. 

To hear about this decade-long crisis now being predicted by multiple Wall Street banks... 

And to see what you can do to prepare your wealth before this hits... 

Click here to learn how to defend your portfolio. 

Regards, 

Keith Kaplan
CEO, TradeSmith 

P.S. You may have noticed we see "surprise" crashes every year now. Think about it: rate spikes in 2022... the bank crisis in 2023... $8 trillion wiped out in 2024... $11 trillion wiped out during the tariff crash in 2025... and, this year, $12 trillion was wiped out in 30 days during the Iran War. Something is off and Wall Street suggests this could continue (and worsen) well into the 2030s. Click here to learn the truth about this market and see what you must do now to prepare.

Turning Trash to Cash: A $129M Bet on Waste

Submitted by Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Article Published: 9/16/2026.

During shifting interest rate cycles, institutions tend to rotate out of cyclical growth stocks and into businesses rooted in the physical economy.

Few industries match the defensive predictability of municipal solid waste management. Essential public-service functions, high regulatory barriers and contractually guaranteed price adjustments give the sector structural durability.

Cascade Investment, Bill Gates's private investment vehicle, underscored this dynamic through open-market purchases totaling approximately $129.3 million in Republic Services, Inc. (NYSE: RSG).

The accumulation of 580,710 shares across multiple trading sessions highlights how smart money is positioning against macroeconomic volatility. The mechanics behind this capital deployment demonstrate why waste infrastructure serves as a dependable foundation for long-term investors.

Gates Hauls in $129 Million of Republic Services Stock

Disclosures filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission confirm that Cascade Investment acquired 580,710 shares of Republic Services, Inc. in mid-September 2026. The purchases occurred in sequential blocks, including 256,000 shares and 324,810 shares, settling at an average price between $222 and $223 per share. These purchases follow earlier accumulations throughout the month, reinforcing a multidecade holding that makes Republic Services one of Gates's largest public equity positions outside of Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT).

Major institutional peers mirror this commitment. The California State Teachers' Retirement System holds approximately 16.26% of outstanding shares, while BlackRock Inc. (NYSE: BLK) controls about 5.79%. When prominent institutional capital absorbs supply at current price levels, it can provide downside support to the trading float and establish a defensive baseline against broader pullbacks.

Cashing in on Trash: Inside the Inflation-Resistant Moat

To understand why defensive capital gravitates toward solid waste, examine how these operators generate cash. Unlike standard industrial businesses that can suffer margin compression from elevated labor and fuel costs during inflationary cycles, waste management operates with distinctive pricing structures. Republic Services provides collection, transfer, disposal and recycling services across the United States and Puerto Rico. A significant share of this business relies on exclusive, multiyear municipal contracts.

These agreements incorporate annual price adjustments tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) or specialized waste-collection indexes. When headline inflation increases, top-line contract rates adjust upward on a scheduled timeline. For commercial and industrial accounts outside municipal boundaries, Republic Services exercises open-market core-pricing flexibility and passes expenses directly to clients.

Recent financial performance confirms the strength of these levers. In its latest quarterly earnings report, Republic Services posted adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.85, surpassing consensus estimates of $1.81. Quarterly revenue rose 4.6% year over year, supporting trailing annual sales of about $16.89 billion.

Beyond ordinary trash collection, Republic Services is finding additional growth in renewable natural gas (RNG) and specialized environmental services—the latter boosted by acquisitions such as US Ecology. By capturing landfill methane and converting it into commercial-grade pipeline fuel, Republic Services transforms an environmental mandate into a predictable, high-margin revenue stream.

Waste Wars: Republic Services Takes on Waste Management

For investors evaluating defensive positioning, comparing Republic Services with industry peer Waste Management, Inc. (NYSE: WM) reveals clear differences in financial architecture. Both operators trade with exceptionally low market volatility, reflected in Republic Services' beta of 0.40 and Waste Management's beta of 0.42.

The divergence emerges in operating profitability and balance-sheet leverage. Republic Services generates a net margin of 12.94% and a pretax margin of 15.18%, compared with Waste Management's 11.11% net margin and 14.12% pretax margin. This margin spread underscores efficient operating performance and pricing capture across Republic Services' route networks.

Balance-sheet composition matters more when interest rates stay higher for longer. Republic Services carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.12, supported by a book value of about $38.66 per share.

Waste Management holds higher financial leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.24 and a book value of roughly $24.80 per share. Although Waste Management achieves a higher return on equity (31.68%) than Republic Services (18.69%), much of that spread comes from higher debt rather than superior operating margins.

Insider trends illustrate a similar divergence. While Cascade steadily increased its ownership in Republic Services, Waste Management logged insider selling, highlighted by a disposition of 1,365 shares by Chief Accounting Officer John Carroll on Sept. 9, 2026.

Sizing Up the Landfills: Price Targets Reveal Room to Run

Beginning a position in this essential infrastructure requires balancing valuation against income generation. Waste Management offers a trailing dividend yield of 1.74%, with an ex-dividend date on Sept. 11 and a distribution on Sept. 25. Republic Services provides a dividend yield of 1.19%, with an upcoming ex-dividend date on Oct. 2 and payment scheduled for Oct. 15.

Valuation multiples also show a subtle variance. Republic Services trades at approximately 32 times trailing earnings and 31 times forward earnings, carrying a slight premium to Waste Management's forward multiple of 27.

Wall Street price targets average $245.26 for Republic Services, implying about 19% upside across 22 covering analysts. Waste Management carries an average price target of $258.89, suggesting a 19% gain across 19 analysts.

Investors should consider risks such as potential slowdowns in commercial construction volume and the capital intensity of landfill development. Even with these realities, Republic Services maintains projected earnings growth of around 10.04% and generates annual cash flow of about $13.46 per share, supporting consistent capital reinvestment and distribution stability.

Building Wealth With Municipal Waste

Monitoring insider accumulation provides valuable insight into how experienced institutional capital positions itself amid market uncertainty. Cascade Investment's deployment of about $129.3 million into Republic Services reflects strong confidence in the company's contractual moat, disciplined debt profile and reliable cash generation.

Investors seeking defensive ballast against equity market swings may want to add Republic Services to their radar. Those prioritizing current quarterly income may prefer Waste Management's higher nominal yield, while investors seeking stronger balance-sheet insulation and wider operating margins could watch for entry points in Republic Services during short-term dips.