Democrats are now looking southwest for the seats that could move them closer to a supermajority.

Democrats Want Even More Control of Olympia

Southwest Washington is shaping up to be a major November battleground as Democrats target four Republican-held House seats in the 17th and 18th Legislative Districts. Republican Reps. John Ley, Stephanie McClintock, Kevin Waters and David Stuebe all trailed their Democratic challengers in the August primary, with each Democrat receiving more than 50% of the vote.
In a recent article, KUOW points to changing demographics as one reason the longtime Republican stronghold has become more competitive, including an influx of families moving north from the Portland metro area. Democratic consultant Dean Nielsen offered another explanation: younger families supposedly being turned off by Republicans and President Donald Trump. Convenient analysis from a Democratic consultant helping Democratic candidates. Republican strategist Chad Minnick cautioned that primaries are dominated by partisan voters and argued Democrats generally have a tougher time with nonpartisan and swing voters.
The stakes go well beyond four House seats. Democrats are trying to expand their existing majorities and inch closer to the supermajority they’ve been eyeing in Olympia, while the high-profile congressional battle between Democratic U.S. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and Republican state Sen. John Braun is bringing even more money and political attention to the region.
For Republicans, Southwest Washington is increasingly becoming a firewall against further Democratic gains in Olympia. And after years of one-party Democratic control at the Capitol, voters in the 17th and 18th districts will have a particularly consequential choice over whether that majority grows even larger. Read more at KUOW ([link removed]).

Business Leaders Diagnose Olympia’s Mess — Then Refuse to Name Who Made It

Washington’s business elite is finally acknowledging what employers have been warning about for years: taxes, regulations and government red tape have made the state increasingly expensive and unpredictable for businesses.
Challenge Seattle’s new regional jobs plan paints a grim picture. Central Puget Sound lost nearly 7,000 jobs in 2025, Washington’s cost-of-doing-business ranking plunged from 32nd to 47th, and the state now has the nation’s worst five-year business survival rate. The report itself points to Seattle’s JumpStart payroll tax, higher B&O taxes, the Advanced Computing Surcharge and other state and local taxes as contributing to the problem.
But, as Seattle Red’s Jason Rantz points out, the report gets strangely timid when it comes time to assign responsibility or propose solutions. Despite identifying the taxes, it doesn’t call for repealing them. Instead, its 20 recommendations include a new tax strategy, economic-impact analyses, policy reviews, government “business concierge” positions and still more coordination.
Rantz also highlights what he calls an odd guest list: Democratic legislative leaders House Speaker Laurie Jinkins, Senate Majority Leader Jamie Pedersen and House Majority Leader Joe Fitzgibbon are among those acknowledged for contributing insights, alongside Seattle, King County and Governor’s Office officials. Challenge Seattle notes that participation does not mean endorsement of the report.
Former Democrat Gov. Chris Gregoire, who leads Challenge Seattle, writes that Washington has become too difficult to build in, too expensive to operate in and too unpredictable for businesses to plan. Bottom line: the group correctly diagnosed the disease, but instead of confronting the taxes and policies it identifies, it prescribed another round of studies, committees and government busy work. Read more at Seattle Red ([link removed]).

Nearly $100 Million Later, LEAD’s “Success” Numbers Face Scrutiny

Nearly $100 million in federal funding for the Seattle-born Law Enforcement Assisted Diversion program is facing scrutiny after the Washington Policy Center found that claims used for years to promote LEAD overstated what the underlying research actually showed. WPC’s Eric Zimmerman says the widely repeated claim that LEAD reduced recidivism or arrests by 58% confused a statistical change in the odds of arrest with a 58% reduction in actual arrests.
That distinction didn’t stop the bigger number from making its way to Congress. Democratic U.S. Rep. Suzan DelBene cited LEAD in 2016 while saying the program reduced recidivism by as much as 60%, and Republicans repeated the figure during debate over her amendment. WPC says LEAD later received nearly $100 million in specifically earmarked federal appropriations, on top of state and local funding.
LEAD co-creator Lisa Daugaard has acknowledged that describing the research as a 58% reduction in the absolute number of arrests was a mistake. But LEAD’s defenders dispute WPC’s broader conclusions. University of Washington researchers say their original statistical findings still stand, while DelBene’s office argues that clarifying how the early findings were described doesn’t justify defunding the program and points to subsequent research supporting LEAD.
Zimmerman isn’t buying that defense. He is calling on Congress to scrutinize future LEAD funding and require more information about outcomes such as employment, housing and mortality. We Heart Seattle founder Andrea Suarez went further, arguing politicians were eager for alternatives to incarceration and embraced LEAD without sufficiently questioning the numbers behind it.
So after years of politicians citing LEAD as an evidence-based alternative to arrests and prosecution, the evidence used to sell it is getting another look — only after taxpayers committed nearly $100 million in federal funding alone. Read more at The Center Square ([link removed]).

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