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Every generation has a defining moment, one they carry with them for the rest of their lives. The one where time stops, the world changes, and all teens and adults remember where they were the moment they heard the news. These events tend to split time in a way that we thereafter demarcate life as before or after it. For our grandparents, it was Pearl Harbor. For our parents, the assassination of President John F. Kennedy. For our generation, it was the terrorist attacks of 9/11. And everyone remembers where they were.
For me, I was in Washington D.C. I was supposed to fly back to Boston on the morning of September 11, but my then-fiancée (and now wife), still at Harvard Law School, asked if I might be able to come back a bit early to help with some wedding planning. So I changed my flights and returned on Monday September 10th. I recall flying through a thunderstorm with jarring turbulence. And on 9/11, I was at my desk when I heard the news. Friends and family, who knew I was supposed to be flying, called to check on me.
And while in shock watching the news unfold on TV, I still remember being paralyzed with panic after learning that one of my friends had departed Logan to attend meetings in Los Angeles. A few hours later, his spouse and I shared a moment of sheer joy when we learned his boss, a very wealthy man, had insisted my friend connect via Dallas to save a bit on airfare. Yes, he was LA bound, but no, he wasn’t on either of the planes that hit the towers. Other friends and former colleagues from my time on Wall Street, I later learned, were not as lucky. (For another perspective, you might want to watch President George W. Bush’s reflections on how he experienced 9/11…link below).
As I sit now and reflect on the 25th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, it is becoming painfully obvious that for the younger folks among us, they don’t have the visceral connection or reaction to the events the way I do. It’s just something they’ve read about… or maybe heard about from parents or teachers. “Never Forget,” we said, and we haven’t. But they can’t forget memories they never had in the first place.
I do my part to help them understand what happened by recommending the video below produced by ESPN…and if you haven’t yet seen it, I recommend you do…it’s less than 15 min and is a powerful story of how 9/11 impacted those who lived through that fateful day. I’m going to now add the George Bush interview to my recommendation.
But some day there will be some event that will shape their lives the way 9/11 and Pearl Harbor shaped the lives of those who came before them. Readers of my work know that I traffic in predictions [ [link removed] ], so here are some guesses as to what that next history-altering, memory-searing event might be:
World War III. We were lulled into a false sense of security after the end of the Cold War with dreams of the “end of history,” only to have that peace shattered by Osama bin Laden. Could the end of the Global War on Terror be creating a similarly false sense of security? We seem to be sleepwalking through some very precarious, fragile and delicate times…We often focus inward, while dangerous events unfold globally. There’s the Ukraine war, the Iran war, China’s aggression…any of these could turn into a flashpoint that sets off another world war. (Side note: If you haven’t read Barbara Tuchman’s The Guns of August, I’d highly encourage you to do so as it’s a great read that sheds light on how a few seemingly localized events led to ever escalating conflict and a world war.)
Let’s not forget that Japan was invading its neighbors and Germany was making aggressive moves well before the invasion of Poland and bombing of Pearl Harbor. Could the Ukraine and Iran conflicts be a buildup to something more extreme? What will the ultimate flashpoint be? Will China finally invade Taiwan? Will Russia attack NATO? Will we see the actual use by a Great Power of nuclear weapons? Any of these have the potential to spark another world war.
Another 9/11. For all the failures of the Global War on Terror (two lost wars, a divided country, exploding deficits, diminished civil rights, the rise of the surveillance state, etc), we did win one indisputable victory. There hasn’t been another attack on the scale of 9/11 on our homeland. But that doesn’t mean there won’t be. That’s the thing about playing defense against terrorists: we have to be right every time; they only have to be right once.
Our enemies are still out there, and they are still trying to hurt us. A potential attack could take many forms that would be far more devastating than flying planes into buildings. For instance, imagine an EMP (electromagnetic pulse) attack [ [link removed] ] that takes the American electricity grid down for months if not years.A catastrophic strike on our aging and outdated grid would plunge most of the country into darkness, destroy all temperature control systems protecting food and medicine, and bring life to a halt. 9/11 unified America, but today’s polarized population is less likely to unify around any such attack. In fact, the event might even generate infighting among Americans, with political consequences that could (over time) be more dire than the attack itself.
The Second American Civil War. Given the polarization and divisiveness of our politics, it’s fashionable these days to talk about our country lapsing into another civil war. Our elections are hard-fought and closely divided; both parties jockey for every advantage they can. Just as the addition of states and whether they would send pro- or anti-slavery senators to the US Senate led to the Civil War, parties today are fighting over structural advantages to defeat their opponents. Whether undocumented immigrants can vote or be counted in the census, adding justices to the court, eliminating the Electoral College, voter ID requirements, when to stop counting ballots, floating election deadlines, gerrymandered districts, additional states and the accompanying senators…these things go beyond electioneering and persuasion and seek to tilt the playing field one way or the other. It’s only a matter of time before such maneuvers go too far and delegitimize our elections. Could it lead to a civil war as political violence is seen as the only path forward?
AI breaks out. Artificial intelligence has been dominating the news as of late, and advancements have been simultaneously exciting and scary. No one truly knows what the ultimate impact will be, the heights we could reach, or the risks associated with it. The nightmare scenario would be a superintelligent, self-improving, ever-evolving AI somehow breaking out of its lab confines and running wild upon the world. Would it be benevolent? Or would the system try to help us in ways that we cannot imagine? Or would it declare war on humanity, thinking us beyond redemption or fighting a war for its very survival? Regardless, its impact would be earth-shattering and era-defining.
With our 250th birthday behind us, we can still look out upon the world and know that we are the richest and most powerful country in history, confident that any challengers can be rebuffed. Of course, there was a time when the Romans and the British could do the same, and we are all painfully aware that the lessons of history teach that empires never last forever. Will the 21st century witness the decline of American dominance? Any of the scenarios above could very well bring it about.
Readers will know that I don’t offer predictions with an objective of accuracy. Instead, I measure the value of the predictions by their usefulness. Do they help us think differently? Can they help us navigate an uncertain world? I don’t know which of these, if any, will be the defining moment for the next generation. Nobody does. But I do know that the world is not getting safer, that the risks are not diminishing, and that the sense of invulnerability that preceded both Pearl Harbor and 9/11 is the most dangerous condition of all.
The best we can do is what we’ve always done: stay vigilant, think clearly, prepare for the scenarios we’d rather not imagine, and never assume that the peace and prosperity we enjoy today is permanent. Twenty-five years ago, on a clear September morning, we learned that lesson the hardest way possible. The question is whether we still remember it.
VIKRAM MANSHARAMANI is an entrepreneur, consultant, scholar, neighbor, husband, father, volunteer, and professional generalist who thinks in multiple-dimensions and looks beyond the short-term. Self-taught to think around corners and connect original dots, he spends his time speaking with global leaders in business, government, academia, and journalism. He’s currently the Chairman and CEO of Goodwell Foods, a manufacturer of private label frozen pizza. LinkedIn has twice listed him as its #1 Top Voice in Money & Finance, and Worth profiled him as one of the 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. Vikram earned a PhD From MIT, has taught at Yale and Harvard, and is the author of three books, The Making of a Generalist: An Independent Thinker Finds Unconventional Success in an Uncertain World [ [link removed] ], Think for Yourself: Restoring Common Sense in an Age of Experts and Artificial Intelligence [ [link removed] ] and Boombustology: Spotting Financial Bubbles Before They Burst [ [link removed] ]. Vikram lives in Lincoln, New Hampshire with his wife and two children, where they can usually be found hiking or skiing.

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