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The Fed votes Wednesday with a hike near 85% priced — four stories,
four pairings, and the business that gets a raise either way.

[Morning Watchlist]
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September 13, 2026  •  Sunday Edition

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A Quick Note From Behind the Markets

THE FED VOTES WEDNESDAY. THIS STOCK GETS A RAISE EITHER WAY.
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Four stories, four pairings — the week the whole quarter has been
pointing at.  •  8 min read

 
It’s Sunday morning, and the week ahead is the one the whole quarter
has been pointing at. The Fed votes Wednesday — and after Friday
morning’s inflation report, futures put the odds of a hike near 85%.
The Bank of Japan follows Friday, with a hike of its own about 90%
priced.

In between: retail sales, a homebuilder’s confession, and — at
Friday’s closing bell — one of the year’s biggest forced-trading
events, when the S&P 500 reshuffles its membership.

Four stories this morning. Four pairings. Let’s get into it.

 

1)
The First Hike of the Warsh Era?

Wednesday at 2:00 PM Eastern, the Fed announces. The last input
arrived Friday morning: August consumer prices rose 0.4% on the month
— accelerating from July’s 0.1%, with gasoline up 3.9% doing the
pushing — holding the annual rate at 3.4%. Core inflation cooled to
2.4% annually but ran 0.3% for the month against the 0.2% expected.
Stacked on Thursday’s hot producer prices, that was enough: futures
odds of a quarter-point hike — to 3.75%–4.00% — jumped from
about 70% to roughly 85% within hours. Chair Kevin Warsh told Jackson
Hole in August: “Otherwise, we have work to do.” Wednesday we
learn if he meant it.

Here’s the part of a hike almost nobody prices: some businesses get
a raise the moment the Fed moves. Think of an insurer as a toll bridge
where drivers pay in January for crossings they’ll make all year.
Between the collecting and the paying, the money sits in the
insurer’s pocket, parked in bonds, earning interest. The industry
calls that pile “float.” When the Fed raises rates, every
insurer’s float gets a raise — no new customers required.

Today’s Stock

W. R. Berkley (WRB) Buy

One of America’s premier specialty insurers. The second quarter set
a company record with $4.1 billion in premiums written, earnings of
$1.27 a share beat the $1.08 expected, and operating earnings grew 21%
— driven, in the company’s own words, by strong investment income.
That’s the float collecting its raise from hikes that already
happened. Wednesday may add another.

The stock closed Thursday at $70.05, about 11% off its high, at
roughly 14 TIMES earnings against the S&P 500’s 21. It yields 2.7%
— and here’s our favorite detail: the average analyst target is
$69.53, _below_ the price, at a consensus Hold. We’ve seen that
shape before in Eldorado Gold and Federated Hermes: targets chasing a
stock the models haven’t caught up to.

The honest risks: a fast turn to rate cuts shrinks the float’s
raise, commercial insurance pricing could soften after strong years,
and any insurer can surprise you with old claims reserved too thin.

Read the full W. R. Berkley note →
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Sponsored by The Oxford Club

Anthropic Just Hit $65 Billion… But There May Be a Way In Before the
IPO [[link removed]]

Anthropic’s annualized revenue reportedly surged to $65 BILLION —
up from $47 billion in May and roughly $9 billion at the end of 2025.
That kind of growth has Wall Street paying attention.

And with Anthropic reportedly preparing for an IPO, investors may soon
be hearing its name everywhere. But YOU MAY NOT HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE
OPENING BELL.

Alexander Green, Chief Investment Strategist of The Oxford Club, says
he’s tracking a PUBLICLY ACCESSIBLE INVESTMENT VEHICLE WITH
ANTHROPIC AS ITS LARGEST POSITION — one that can reportedly be
purchased through a brokerage with just a few hundred dollars.

And Anthropic isn’t the only name inside. The vehicle also holds
stakes in DATABRICKS AND ANDURIL, giving investors exposure to several
major players in the next generation of AI and technology.

With SEPTEMBER 29 approaching, Green believes this setup deserves a
closer look before Anthropic potentially moves into an even brighter
spotlight.

Watch the FREE briefing on the Anthropic backdoor. →
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2)
The Lemonade Was Free for a Generation

Friday, while America sleeps, the Bank of Japan is expected to raise
its policy rate to 1.25% — about 90% priced, with 70% odds of
another increase by December. Japanese real wages are growing at their
best pace in five years, the yen touched 153 to the dollar Tuesday —
its strongest since February — and the 10-year Japanese government
bond hit 2.945% in August, its highest yield since 1996.

Imagine running a lemonade stand where, by law, the lemonade had to be
free. That was lending money in Japan for most of a generation. Since
2024 the law has changed — the lemonade has a price again, and it
rises a quarter-point at a time.

Today’s Stock

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) Watch

Japan’s largest bank, and since July Japan’s most valuable company
outright at about ¥41 trillion, ahead of Toyota. The rate math is
simple: the bank estimates every additional quarter-point eventually
adds about ¥180 billion a year — over a billion dollars — to
interest income. First-quarter profit rose 48%. Tokyo shares closed
Wednesday at ¥3,601, yielding about 2.6%.

So why Watch and not Buy? Because a 90%-priced hike is not an edge —
it’s an entrance fee, and the stock sits near record highs after a
monster run. This trade also has an air-pocket problem: on August
19th, one bond-market scare knocked the megabanks down 4–5% in a
session. That’s the entrance we want — a carry-trade wobble or
sell-the-news dip with the hike path intact. What kills it: the BoJ
blinking and the yen sliding back toward 160. Ledger note: Friday’s
decision is also the bell we named for our Aflac watch on September
9th.

See the MUFG setup →
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Sponsored by Banyan Hill Publishing

Elon Musk’s “Infinite Power Grid”
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Jon Najarian says he’s never been more excited about an opportunity
like this.

His focus? A tiny American energy company with a $6 billion market cap
that could play a role in Elon Musk’s ambitious “INFINITE POWER
GRID.”

So what exactly is Musk building — and why does Jon believe this
company could benefit?

Watch Jon’s full breakdown here. →
[[link removed]]

 

 

3)
The Builder Confesses Four Hours After the Fed Votes

Wednesday after the close — the same day as the Fed decision —
Lennar, one of America’s two biggest homebuilders, reports earnings.
Thursday morning brings August housing starts. In one 18-hour window,
we learn what 6.85% mortgages are doing to the biggest purchase most
families ever make.

Wall Street expects about $1.30 a share, down roughly 35% from a year
ago. Last quarter revenue missed and operating margins fell to 5.9%
from 7.5% — because the only way to move houses at these rates is
incentives, mostly mortgage-rate buydowns. A builder buying down your
rate is a car dealer paying your gas bill for three years: the car
moves, the profit stays on the lot. The stock closed Thursday at
$77.20, more than 40% below its 52-week high near $140; the options
market braces for a 5% move on the report.

Today’s Stock

Lennar (LEN) Watch

Seven of 18 analysts now say Strong Sell — a rare depth of gloom —
while the average target still sits near $85. When the last optimist
leaves, cyclical bottoms get made. Our entrance: margins finding a
floor _and_ the Fed’s path turning friendly — both, not either.

Regular readers know our position: we flipped M/I Homes to Sell on
September 3rd because builder estimates are made of mortgage rates,
and rates went the wrong way. A hike Wednesday afternoon would harden
that. Until the confession lands, we own the freeze through the
landlord and the repairman — Invitation Homes and Frontdoor — and
let the builders report.

Read the housing setup →
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Sponsored by Altimetry

Top Wall Street Adviser Warns of Crash 62 Times Worse Than Great
Depression
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A top Wall Street adviser is warning of a new threat 62 times bigger
than the Great Depression.

And per the _Financial Times_… major CEOs like Sam Altman are
already BEGGING FOR HELP
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_Bloomberg_ reports this new threat is “wreaking havoc” across the
country. It could soon wipe $33 trillion from the market — and
destroy the lives of 67 million Americans.

But this is not a typical crash. It’s nothing to do with interest
rates, the Federal Reserve, or any sort of war or virus. Instead… it
could be far, far worse than anything any American alive today has
ever seen.

Today, you still have the chance to PREPARE YOUR PORTFOLIO
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for what’s coming.

Click here to see the new crisis that could hit the market. →
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4)
On Friday, the Index Fires a Stock

The week’s strangest scheduled event: on September 4th, S&P
announced its quarterly reshuffle. Effective before Monday the
21st’s open, Bloom Energy and Illumina headline the additions to the
S&P 500 — and The Trade Desk is out, Illumina taking its seat. Index
funds tracking trillions don’t get an opinion; they must finish
selling by Friday’s close — which is also quadruple witching, the
quarterly expiration crush that makes that bell the loudest print of
the season.

Fourteen months ago, The Trade Desk entered the index around $80. It
leaves around $14. We flagged it on September 3rd at $13.78 as a Watch
and named our entrance in writing: a capitulation washout. The index
just put a date on it. When a store gets kicked out of the mall, the
everything-must-go sale isn’t a judgment on the merchandise —
it’s a deadline. Forced sellers with a calendar are the most honest
counterparties in markets.

Today’s Stock

The Trade Desk (TTD) Watch

What’s changed since September 3rd: the company cut 15% of its
workforce, and now comes Friday’s forced selling. What hasn’t: the
reason we didn’t buy — growth broke, 3% last quarter, and the
business still has to prove the ad dollars come back. Closed Thursday
at $13.97, about 15 times next year’s expected earnings, 52-week low
$12.83. Still Watch.

The plan: let the index funds finish. If the washout prints and the
price holds after the 21st, that’s our entrance. Buying before
Friday’s bell is volunteering to stand under a scheduled anvil. What
kills it: revenue actually shrinking at the next report — a cheap
stock becoming a value trap with good manners.

Read the Trade Desk plan →
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Before You Go

That’s the watchlist: the toll bridge collecting a raise from the
Fed, the lemonade stand that finally gets to charge, the builder’s
confession, and the index showing a stock the door. Notice that three
of the four are Watches — this week’s outcomes are binary and
mostly priced, so we’d rather name our entrances now and let the
week come to us.

Your map: Wednesday is the hinge — retail sales at 8:30 AM (July’s
fell 0.6%), the Fed at 2:00 PM, Warsh’s press conference after,
Lennar at the close. Thursday: housing starts and the Bank of England.
Friday: the Bank of Japan and the quadruple-witching close.

The week’s biggest moment is Wednesday, 2:00 PM Eastern — the
first rate hike of the Warsh era, now about 85% priced, with every
rate-sensitive call on our ledger listening. The only surprise left is
a hold.

Read this morning’s full issue →
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