I'm going to be honest with you — sending this makes me nervous. We traveled
into the Utah desert to film what we thought was the dying breath of American
energy.
<[link removed]>
I'm going to be honest with you — sending this makes me nervous.
We traveled into the Utah desert to film what we thought was the dying breath
of American energy.
<[link removed]>
What our cameras caught on the other side of that site is something we've
been legally discouraged from describing in writing.
Three separate people told us not to publish this footage.
We're publishing it anyway — because what's coming out of that ground could
represent thelargest economic revival this country has seen in a century, and
the people who stand to lose the most from that are counting on you never
finding out.
Click to learn more
<[link removed]>
The Return Ledger — Weekend Follow-Up
Oracle’s Panic Ended. The $28 Billion Question Didn’t.
The stock settled back where it started. The capex, the dilution, and the
negative free cash flow behind Thursday’s cloud-growth headline are all still
sitting on the balance sheet, waiting to be measured.
The Corporate Decision, Revisited
Oracle’s fiscal Q1 2027 report, released Thursday after market close, showed
revenue of $19.3 billion (up 30% year over year) and cloud infrastructure
revenue of $7.4 billion (up 121%), alongside $28 billion in capital
expenditures in a single quarter, negative free cash flow of roughly $5
billion, and a $20 billion at-the-market equity offering to help fund the
buildout. We flagged this Thursday as “Return Not Yet Proven.” A weekend’s
distance changes nothing about the arithmetic — it only lets us watch how the
market actually settled on an answer.
How the Market Actually Voted
Thursday night produced three irreconcilable prices within hours: a $152.94
regular close, an immediate after-hours pop to $159.58, and a separate quote of
$126.41 we could not verify. Friday morning, Oracle traded at $153.78 — up
0.55% from Thursday’s close, and within 1% of where the stock stood before any
of Thursday night’s drama began.
ROI Tracker Pro calculation: ($153.78 − $152.94) ÷ $152.94 × 100 = 0.55%. A
stock that reported 121% cloud growth and a record backlog, then round-tripped
back to flat within 18 hours, is a market that has not yet decided whether this
quarter was good news or a warning — it has decided to wait.
What Still Hasn’t Been Answered
Three numbers from Thursday’s release remain unresolved and unmeasured, a
full trading day later: the exact share count added by the $20 billion
at-the-market offering (Oracle has not disclosed it); whether the $664 billion
revenue backlog converts to free cash flow on a timeline that outpaces the
dilution; and whether $90–$95 billion in guided annual capex is a bet the
company can fund from operations, or one that requires still more external
capital. None of these were resolved by Friday’s calm close — a quiet stock
price is not the same thing as a resolved question.
Benchmark Comparison
The S&P 500 rallied 0.86% on Friday. Oracle’s 0.55% gain from Thursday’s
close lagged that broader rally — a modest but real underperformance against
the index on the one full session available since the earnings release, even
after the after-hours chaos washed out.
Who Benefited, Who’s Waiting
Anyone who sold into Thursday night’s $126.41 print, if that quote reflected
real, executable trades, locked in a loss the broader market did not confirm by
Friday morning. Anyone who bought the $159.58 after-hours pop overpaid relative
to where the stock actually settled. The steadier outcome went to holders who
did nothing — which is itself the point of Thursday’s edition and Friday’s
follow-up alike.
Return Classification — Reaffirmed
Return Not Yet Proven
A calm Friday settlement price is not evidence the capex bet is working — it
is evidence the market needs more than one earnings report and one trading day
to decide. The $5 billion quarterly free-cash-flow deficit and the undisclosed
dilution from the $20 billion offering are still the two numbers that will
ultimately answer this, and neither has moved since Thursday.
Next Measurable Checkpoint
Oracle’s next 10-Q, for the exact share count issued under the at-the-market
offering, and the next full trading week, to see whether the stock finds a
direction once markets have had more than a day and a half to digest the
quarter.
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